April 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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PortKells
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Re: April 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Abby_wx wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:00 pm Last year. April used to have freezes every year, often more than once. I don't quite know when it started to become less common, but it's definitely not as common nowadays.
Could be sometime around when the global climate started shifting more rapidly, aka the mid to late eighties. Several years were the warmest on record at the time. Vancouver is part of that shift. We see less of anything to do with cold - snow, frost, summer rain, and on. The statistics clearly bear this out. One day we might all agree this is happening but I dont believe that day is here yet.
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Re: April 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Abby_wx wrote: Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:00 pm Last year. April used to have freezes every year, often more than once. I don't quite know when it started to become less common, but it's definitely not as common nowadays.
We're well overdue for an April snowfall too. Last one was back in 2011 I believe.
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Re: April 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Eye catching headline: Winters are only going to get worse. Not sure where they're getting their info.

https://gizmodo.com/winters-are-only-go ... 076615/amp
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Re: April 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by moonshadow0825 »

Roberts Creeker wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:25 am Eye catching headline: Winters are only going to get worse. Not sure where they're getting their info.

https://gizmodo.com/winters-are-only-go ... 076615/amp
probably from solar scientists. from what I've read previous models for future climate predictions have ascribes 0.1% of climate change to solar forcing but we've only been able to really study the sun for the past 50 years. so it's likely those models of past climate were a bit off.

Some of the solar scientists are predicting that the current relative lack of sunspots could continue into the next cycle and we'd have a Dalton-like or Maunder-like solar minimum which means global cooling and more snow.

granted this is a cr@p shoot at this point half the solar scientists think the opposite but there are enough out there to provide for those types of articles.
while I wouldn't want a true Maunder minimum and it's associated reduction in viable farming areas, all that snow would make for some fun times on the forum
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Re: April 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Rainfall warning for the Fraser Valley but nothing for Metro Van. Very unusual to have a rain warning in Abbotsford without one in Coquitlam.

Must just be that trajectory of the low favours the Fraser Valley.
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Re: April 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:13 am Rainfall warning for the Fraser Valley but nothing for Metro Van. Very unusual to have a rain warning in Abbotsford without one in Coquitlam.

Must just be that trajectory of the low favours the Fraser Valley.
24.5mm recorded so far today at the rain gauge in North Coquitlam.

Hasn't been too impressive over here yet but it's coming down steadily. Could possibly hit 50mm by day's end if it keeps up.
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Re: April 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:04 pm 24.5mm recorded so far today at the rain gauge in North Coquitlam.

Hasn't been too impressive over here yet but it's coming down steadily. Could possibly hit 50mm by day's end if it keeps up.
15.4 mm here so far and I'm the one with the rainfall warning. :lol: Had stopped raining for a bit but its pouring again.
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Re: April 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

AbbyJr wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:58 pm 15.4 mm here so far and I'm the one with the rainfall warning. :lol: Had stopped raining for a bit but its pouring again.
For the western Fraser valley the warning does specify higher amounts near the mountains, such as Mission. Amounts will likely be lighter, possibly below warning criteria closer to Abbotsford
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Re: April 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Monty wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:31 pm For the western Fraser valley the warning does specify higher amounts near the mountains, such as Mission. Amounts will likely be lighter, possibly below warning criteria closer to Abbotsford
Fair enough. I usually do a bit better then the S sections of Abby though being a bit farther north.
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Re: April 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

AbbyJr wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:37 pm Fair enough. I usually do a bit better then the S sections of Abby though being a bit farther north.
Yes read all the details carefully boy before you judge
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Re: April 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

I was at over 25mm before noon. Haven't checked since then yet.

I was at just under 41mm by 5PM. I'm at just under 147 mm this month so far.
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Re: April 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

Wet here but nothing extreme so far... about 20 mm. Everywhere is supposed to get an additional 30-40 mm tonight, though.
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Re: April 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Lol u tell him John :lol:

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Of course it could easily be 18c and bommy during this strong EN, but instead March starts out troffy and chilly! :shock: :shock: Bring on some 18c sunny days
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Re: April 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Today is the rainiest day since Jan 3rd, when 111.8mm fell.

Up to 41.5mm on the day at the North Coquitlam rain gauge. 161.8mm monthly total.
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Re: April 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Typeing3 wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:52 pm Today is the rainiest day since Jan 3rd, when 111.8mm fell.

Up to 41.5mm on the day at the North Coquitlam rain gauge. 161.8mm monthly total.
That’s 120mm more than I’ve received. Doubt I see much significant rain tonight. Looks like orographic enhancement is running the show tonight.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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