Lack of strong forecast signals for this upcoming winter means confidence for this outlook is lower than usual. Based on this, I may decide to update this forecast later in November.
British Columbia
Rather mild winter is anticipated as the bulk of Arctic intrusions will be delivered through central Canada. Places such as Vancouver, Victoria, Kamloops and Prince George should also be drier and have more sunshine than usual. The overall pattern will likely favor lower snowfall, which could potentially increase the potential for late-spring and summer drought next year. The main storm track will likely bring the bulk of rain and snowfall events to northwestern British Columbia this winter.
Same guy just predicted a dry spell lasting through most of November for SW BC. If he's right that really sucks for the start of the ski season cuz it's pretty much a guarantee that if there is a 3 week or so dry spell that it will be replaced by an atmospheric river/pineapple express type pattern. It usually happens that way at this time of year following extended ridging.
Posting this in here so it doesn't get lost in the other thread.
January stats for those three enso neutral analogues....
1947
Vancouver Snowfall: 35.6cm
Vancouver Mean temp: 0.5C
New Westminster Snowfall: 34.7cm
New Westminster Mean temp: 0.4C
Abbotsford Snowfall: 23.0cm
Abbotsford Mean temp: -0.4C
Shawnigan Lake Snowfall: 70.2cm
Shawnigan Lake Mean temp: 0.4C
1951
Vancouver Snowfall: 26.0cm
Vancouver Mean temp: 2.5C
New Westminster Snowfall: 69.8cm
New Westminster Mean temp: 1.4C
Abbotsford Snowfall: 19.2cm
Abbotsford Mean temp: 1.6C
Shawnigan Lake Snowfall: 80.0cm
Shawnigan Lake Mean temp: 1.2C
1957
Vancouver Snowfall: 35.6cm
Vancouver Mean temp: -1.6C
New Westminster Snowfall: 48.8cm
New Westminster Mean temp: -2.1C
Abbotsford Snowfall: 51.1cm
Abbotsford Mean temp: -3.2C
Shawnigan Lake Snowfall: 42.9cm
Shawnigan Lake Mean temp: -1.7C
Analogue Average
Vancouver Snowfall: 32.4cm
Vancouver Mean temp: 0.5C
New Westminster Snowfall: 51.1cm
New Westminster Mean temp: -0.1C
Abbotsford Snowfall: 31.1cm
Abbotsford Mean temp: -0.7C
Shawnigan Lake Snowfall: 64.3cm
Shawnigan Lake Mean temp: 0.0C
Abby_wx wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:25 pm
I like the 1957 one, the rest seem a bit "meh", at least out here. Good for areas further west mainly.
Considering how bad recent Januaries have been, it probably doesn't seem like a lot...but the average of all three would still result in the coldest and snowiest Jan regionally since 1993.
Coquitlam79 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:45 am
Same guy just predicted a dry spell lasting through most of November for SW BC. If he's right that really sucks for the start of the ski season cuz it's pretty much a guarantee that if there is a 3 week or so dry spell that it will be replaced by an atmospheric river/pineapple express type pattern. It usually happens that way at this time of year following extended ridging.
Well he is pretty bang on with dry November...wow
Let's hope this April brings some ~24c sunny days. Yesssss
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
Monty wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:01 pm
So you don’t think we’re going to see -20s on the coast this winter?
I don't think anything about seasonal forecast. It's way too complicated.
What I mean is that we can have a very dry and mild November, then a very dry and mild winter or a very wet and mild winter or a very wet and cold winter or a very dry and cold winter.
It's unlikely that we have this pattern all winter, so wait to see...
Canoodles record: 44-18-8
Wrinkle Rockers: 43cm 
South Sardines: 57cm 
