October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by **SouthSardiswx** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:58 pm

Did everyone pass out after Thanksgiving dinner the board has been dead for 2 days now. Johnny are you o.k. you've all but disappeared you were an inspiration in the summer. Are you mad still since you got reamed out for posting political material in the weather thread.

Typeing3 · Post by **Typeing3** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:36 pm

Sardisbcwx wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:55 pm Fantastic everything is looking on course for a monster winter for us. Not that ridgy c**p we had in the past, active is good sets us up nicely.

Not so fast. Looks like we may see a ridge set up towards the last week of the month.

Warm west/cold east.

Post by **SouthSardiswx** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:43 pm

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:36 pm Not so fast. Looks like we may see a ridge set up towards the last week of the month.

Warm west/cold east.

Well that sucks donkey balls.

is it temporary or a long term thing? yuck back to sleep everyone the patterns about to get boring.

wetcoast91 · Post by **wetcoast91** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:29 pm

Sardisbcwx wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:43 pm Well that sucks donkey balls. is it temporary or a long term thing? yuck back to sleep everyone the patterns about to get boring.

Well...we are due for a dry and mild fall and early winter. Sept/Oct has been chilly and wet. Do not see a +ENSO winter though.

That Greenland block is rather ugly.

Typeing3 · Post by **Typeing3** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:41 pm

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:29 pm Well...we are due for a dry and mild fall and early winter. Sept/Oct has been chilly and wet. Do not see a +ENSO winter though.

That Greenland block is rather ugly.

We're also nearly 30 years overdue for a cold January...time will tell if that ever happens again.

AbbyJr · Post by **AbbyJr** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:47 pm

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:41 pm We're also nearly 30 years overdue for a cold January...time will tell if that ever happens again.

We will do fine this winter.

Post by **SouthSardiswx** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:14 pm

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:47 pm We will do fine this winter.

+ENSO means what?

Typeing3 · Post by **Typeing3** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:25 pm

Sardisbcwx wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:14 pm +ENSO means what?

El Nino.

Post by **SouthSardiswx** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 12:24 am

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:25 pmEl Nino.

Nito says no +ENSO

Mattman · Post by **Mattman** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:59 am

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:36 pm Not so fast. Looks like we may see a ridge set up towards the last week of the month.

Warm west/cold east.

At this point I'm inclined to wait and see. The GFS has had some blocky solutions for the next 7 days 7ish days ago only to cave to a more zonal pattern. Same for the end of the month: GFS was setting up a ridge by the end of the month yesterday, but now the 06z is zonal towards the end of the month. What is certain is model flip-flopping uncertainty.

Monty · Post by **Monty** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:56 am

October has been pretty dry so far. Looks like thatâ€™s about to change.

Monty · Post by **Monty** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:00 am

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:29 pm Well...we are due for a dry and mild fall and early winter. Sept/Oct has been chilly and wet. Do not see a +ENSO winter though.

That Greenland block is rather ugly.

UGLY or beautiful. We can do well with Greenland blocking

4F48AF0E-59E5-4D32-8818-FFFB4038CA9F.png

Monty · Post by **Monty** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:03 am

EC says 40% chance of showers here this afternoon. Guess this is gonna fizzle cause that seems like a pretty wet looking radar shot

45A0A242-C0E4-4E4F-8453-70DC837F5099.png

AbbyJr · Post by **AbbyJr** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:27 am

Monty wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:03 am EC says 40% chance of showers here this afternoon. Guess this is gonna fizzle cause that seems like a pretty wet looking radar shot

45A0A242-C0E4-4E4F-8453-70DC837F5099.png

Or EC is wrong.

Typeing3 · Post by **Typeing3** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 12:03 pm

Monty wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:00 am UGLY or beautiful. We can do well with Greenland blocking

4F48AF0E-59E5-4D32-8818-FFFB4038CA9F.png

Beautiful.

That's the "ultimate trifecta" for cold in BC right there.
-PNA/-EPO/-NAO.

October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

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