Most Significant Winter Events in SW B.C. History

[Glacier]

Most anomalous months at BC's longest running weather station...

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[Abby_wx]

Most anomalous months at BC's longest running weather station...

deviations.png

I don't know where they got that since January 1950 had a monthly mean of -9.5C, which is about 12C below average. I think you have manually verify all of these months, as the data cannot be trusted.

I also find it odd that they close 1893 as a start date when data goes back to 1889.

[Typeing3]

Most anomalous months at BC's longest running weather station...

deviations.png

Nice graph.

In terms of single events, I'd still say that the two week stretch in late Jan and early Feb 1893 period was the most significant anomalous event in recorded history for our area. The stats at the Agassiz station for that timeframe are absolutely insane. Still can't wrap my head around the Feb 3, 1893 snowstorm. Agassiz recorded -15C/-20.6C on the day with 45.7cm of snow.

It was equally crazy in terms of sheer cold for locales up north and to our east as well; Barkerville recorded a -36.1C/-43.3C day on Feb 2, 1893, with Keremeos at -23.3C/-30.6C on Jan 31, 1893.

[Glacier]

I don't know where they got that since January 1950 had a monthly mean of -9.5C, which is about 12C below average. I think you have manually verify all of these months, as the data cannot be trusted.

I also find it odd that they close 1893 as a start date when data goes back to 1889.

I am using the homogenized data. I don't know why they dropped the first 4 years in that dataset. I'm assuming Environment Canada thinks it's not reliable. Perhaps pre-Stevenson Screen.

This graph shows number of standard deviations. Since January has a much higher standard deviation (much more variability) than November (2.85C vs. 1.75C), a temperature 10 degrees C below normal will be 3.5 deviations below normal in January and 5.7 deviations below normal in November.

In terms of absolute coldest months on record at Agassiz going back to 1893:

COLDEST1month.png

In terms of absolute coldest two months on record at Agassiz going back to 1893:

COLDEST2month.png

In terms of absolute coldest three months on record at Agassiz going back to 1893:

COLDEST3month.png

In terms of absolute coldest four months on record at Agassiz going back to 1893:

COLDEST4month.png

[Glacier]

Perhaps the coldest month of all time since the first weather station opened in Esquimalt in January of 1872 was January 1875. Maybe even colder than January 1950!

Unfortunately there were only 3 weather stations west of Manitoba (and the only station in Manitoba was total garbage, BTW):

Spence's Bridge
Equimalt
New Westminster


Let's start with Spence's Bridge with data from 1873-1909 and then from 1980-2002.

The coldest months from 1980-2002 were:
1) Jan 1993 = -10.6C
2) Dec 1983 = -9.5C
3) Dec 1996 = -8.6C

Coldest months from 1873-1909:
1) Jan 1875 = -17.3C
2) Jan 1907 = -14.1C
3) Jan 1909 = -12.0C
4) Jan 1890 = -11.6C
5) Feb 1884 = -10.2C
6) Jan 1876 = -9.4C

Nothing from Jan 1950, so let's look at nearby stations:
Hope: -12.6C
Lytton: -18.6C
Princeton: -20.2C
Kamloops: -21.6C
Merritt: -24.2C

My guess is that Spences Bridge would be very similar to Lytton (Lytton was a degree colder in Dec 1983 for example), so perhaps 1950 was indeed still colder in the Spences Bridge area anyway.


Esquimalt (temperature data from 1872-1898 with most of the 1880s missing):
Coldest months:
1) Jan 1875 = -1.7C
2) Feb 1873 = -0.1C (daily max data missing so estimated from the daily low assuming maximum was 5.4C higher than the lows)
3) Feb 1891 = 1.2C
4) Feb 1893 = 1.3C
5) Jan 1876 = 1.5C

No data from January 1950, but the nearest weather station was Victoria Gonzales Hill (where my dad and grandparents lived at the time).

Coldest months at Gonzales Hill:
1) Jan 1950 = -3.3C
2) Jan 1916 = -1.4C
3) Jan 1937 = -0.4C
4) Jan 1969 = -0.2C
5) Jan 1930 = 0.1C

Gonzales Hill seems to have the average daily mean slightly warmer than Esquimalt, but it's hard to say for sure because I'm comparing a proxy station that overlaps with both to figure that out. So assuming they are similar, Jan 1950 was colder in 1950, but Jan 1875 was likely the second coldest month on record.

New Westminster:
Coldest months on record (1874-1966):
1) Jan 1875 = -5.9C
1) Jan 1950 = -5.9C
3) Jan 1916 = -4.3C
4) Jan 1907 = -3.6C
5) Jan 1937 = -3.3C

Note that Jan 1950 was colder in the day but warmer in the night:
Jan 1875: average high = -1.7; Average low = -10
Jan 1950: average high = -2.2; Average low = -9.6

EDIT: My order for coldest months of all time on the south coast are:
1) Jan 1950
2) Jan 1875
3) Jan 1969
4) Jan 1916
5) Jan 1907
6) Jan 1937
7) Jan 1930
8) Feb 1873
9) Feb 1936
10) Jan 1943
11) Jan 1909
12 Jan 1957

[Typeing3]

Perhaps the coldest month of all time since the first weather station opened in Esquimalt in January of 1872 was January 1875. Maybe even colder than January 1950!

Don't know if you saw my post last Friday, but I pointed this out as well. Absolute mins in January 1875 (-20.6C) were lower than Jan 1950 at the New Westminster station.

[Typeing3]

EDIT: My order for coldest months of all time on the south coast are:
1) Jan 1950
2) Jan 1875
3) Jan 1969
4) Jan 1916
5) Jan 1907
6) Jan 1937
7) Jan 1930
8) Feb 1873
9) Feb 1936
10) Jan 1943
11) Jan 1909
12 Jan 1957

I'd say January 1949 should be on that list...average temp of -1.4C at YVR.

Going way back...I know months such as January 1862, February 1884 and December 1884 were very cold as well but unfortunately there's no data available for locations on the south coast. Just going off data for locations south of the border.

[Glacier]

Interesting how January of 1979 was one of the top 10 coldest on record in Kamloops.

Also, notice how no December months are memorable in terms of the monthly average cold, and yet December is on average the coldest month of the year.

I added my best estimate for Jan 1875 into the mix.

COLDESTMONTHSKAMLOOPS.png

[Typeing3]

Interesting how January of 1979 was one of the top 10 coldest on record in Kamloops.

Also, notice how no December months are memorable in terms of the monthly average cold, and yet December is on average the coldest month of the year.

I added my best estimate for Jan 1875 into the mix.

COLDESTMONTHSKAMLOOPS.png

The winter of '78-79 was quite cold. In some ways it was remarkably similar to '16-17. Persistently chilly, allowing for cold monthly averages, but no extreme cold.

Averages for January have warmed much more significantly over the years compared with December. Up until the 1981-2010 averages, January was the coldest month on average for most (if not all) locations in the province. I recall seeing a graph comparing average temps and snowfall over the years in December, January and Feb and the stark rise in temps and decline in snowfall in January was quite significant.

Edit: found one comparing Jan and Feb averages at both YVR and YXX over the past 50 years

[Typeing3]

I really wish we had data back to the legendary winter of 1861-62. Someone on the american weather forums said there was a station at New Westminster at the time which recorded temp and precip data but I can't find it. But from what we do know, Jan 1862 was a beast; apparently temps dipped to -27C in New West. The fraser river had already mostly frozen back in December and froze completely solid by early Jan as we remained in the deep freeze thru March.

I posted these pics in one of the other threads not too long ago. Better to keep them in here so they don't get lost.

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[Typeing3]

There is a paper which partly summarizes the winter of 1861-62. Saw it cited on the american forum:
"Table of Meteorological Observations taken by order of Col. li. 0. Moody, 11.E., at the station nf the Royal Engineers at New Westminster, B.C, in the year 1862."

It appears temps actually dropped to -19C rather than -27C (was measured at ground level rather than further up) on January 15th. However, this observation was taken at 9:30am. As we know mins are normally achieved about 1-2hrs prior to this. So to speculate, the temp could have easily hit -23C just a couple hours prior at around 7:30am. The high for the day (taken at 3:30pm) was an astonishing -14.4C.

More on the frozen fraser...ice didn't melt until March 11th!

"Ice appeared on the 1st January, 1862, and the river at New Westminster was unnavigable on the 4th; it was completely frozen over on the 9th, and the ice attained a thickness of 13 inches in the channel opposite the R. E. Camp, on the 12th of February. Sleighs were running from Langley to several miles below New Westminster, and persons walked from Hope to the latter place, a distance of 80 miles, on the ice, at the end of January. Lake Harrison and the other Lakes were frozen. Navigation from New Westminster was open to the mouth of the river on the 11th of March, and from Yale on the 12th April.

The same paper has more stats for the settlement at Lillooet. January 1862 averaged -13.7C, with an extreme low of -30C and 71.1cm of snow.

[Typeing3]

Most anomalous months at BC's longest running weather station...

deviations.png

Just to follow up on this graph...November 1896 averaged -1.4C at the Agassiz station. Given Nov 1985 averaged -1.3C, wouldn't 1896 that be even more anomalous?

[Glacier]

Just to follow up on this graph...November 1896 averaged -1.4C at the Agassiz station. Given Nov 1985 averaged -1.3C, wouldn't 1896 that be even more anomalous?

Now you've hit on something I do not know how to reconcile. My graph comes from the Environment Canada's homogenized surface air temperature data

For this station they adjusted all data prior to 1924, and no November month more than 1896. It seems that they think the station in 1896 was reading far too low so they added 2.2C to it to make the mean 0.8C, not -1.4C. That's one hell of an adjustment.

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