Real Estate

[moonshadow0825]

Yup, I completely agree. People are conditioned to believe that prices only go up, or at worst stay flat for a couple years and then resume going up. They think they just have to wait it out. The RE industry perpetuates this mindset with their rosy forecasts of a "soft landing". It's going to take a while for reality to sink in, but I think we're getting near the capitulation point, as you put it.

A broad correction of 30-40% wouldn't surprise me.

do you see 30 - 40% from here or the peak in 2017?

[Forrest Gump]

I don't think condos will moderate as much for a couple of reasons:
1. even at the low end of your range $600,000 is still too much for many first time buyers, especially if renovations have to be done in an older home, between rising mortgage costs, cmhc financing and property insurance there won't be much left at the end of the day to justify such a purchase for many. I've been teaching my kids (17 and 24) that they shouldn't expect to purchase a single family home right away but instead start with a condo and build equity over time so they can purchase up later.

2 that millennial/gen z group aren't as land focused as we were taught to be. from what i've seen of my son's friends they want condos as the lower overall cost allows them a more mobile lifestyle.

3. remember that book "Boom, Bust & Echo"? the author was a good demographer. I'm a wealth planner and we regularly see the high net worth spectrum wanting to downsize in space but stay in their same neighbourhoods. this means condos.

so between pressure from above and below the condo market may just weather a downturn.

Yes condo market will probably hold its own, especially in South surrey/White rock as I'm sure it's a highly desirable area, but having said that 3 units in my building have been on market for several months now with no bites.

So , I presume your kids go/went to delta sec? I just retired from there.

[Abby_wx]

do you see 30 - 40% from here or the peak in 2017?

30-40% from the peak. That's just my best guess.

Some will argue that 40% is extreme, but I think people forget how long we've been blowing this bubble. If you look at the charts you can actually trace it back to 2003/04. We've seen a couple of minor corrections along the way, but nothing proportionate to the size of the bubble.

It depends on property type, though. Detached homes should see the largest drop because they're the most over-valued. They were already considered overpriced in 2014, while condos and townhomes were still reasonable at that point.

[moonshadow0825]

Yes condo market will probably hold its own, especially in South surrey/White rock as I'm sure it's a highly desirable area, but having said that 3 units in my building have been on market for several months now with no bites.

So , I presume your kids go/went to delta sec? I just retired from there.

Yes both, Youngest is graduating this year.

You didn't happen to teach drafting did you? (If that was too nosy feel free to ignore me )

[moonshadow0825]

30-40% from the peak. That's just my best guess.

Some will argue that 40% is extreme, but I think people forget how long we've been blowing this bubble. If you look at the charts you can actually trace it back to 2003/04. We've seen a couple of minor corrections along the way, but nothing proportionate to the size of the bubble.

It depends on property type, though. Detached homes should see the largest drop because they're the most over-valued. They were already considered overpriced in 2014, while condos and townhomes were still reasonable at that point.

I wouldn't be one of those who thinks that too extreme. I wish the REB publushed charts that went back to the 80s or even 70s. I think it would give a more tempered view of the ebbs and flows of the market.

What we've seen recently is an aberration and I'm of the belief that physics works in markets jyst as much as it does in life.

When I was a lender in the late 90s I had clients who owed more than they owned. People forget about that.

Sorry about the rant

[Forrest Gump]

Yes both, Youngest is graduating this year.

You didn't happen to teach drafting did you? (If that was too nosy feel free to ignore me )

No, I'm not Mr.addison ... Support staff , I was ...............the day time custodial engineer

[moonshadow0825]

No, I'm not Mr.addison ... Support staff , I was ...............the day time custodial engineer

Thought it was worth a chance both kids loved drafting with Mr Addison

Custodial engineer, with all those kids? My hat's off to you, I can barely handle my two at home

Have you read the "Uprising" series by Jim C Hines? Its science fiction and the heroes are all sanitation engineers

[Forrest Gump]

Apparently Canadian interest rates will be going down this year. Either way this spring and summer will be most interesting to see if sales pick up in the real estate market and which direction the prices will go. Or maybe it will just level off for a while.

[moonshadow0825]

Apparently Canadian interest rates will be going down this year. Either way this spring and summer will be most interesting to see if sales pick up in the real estate market and which direction the prices will go. Or maybe it will just level off for a while.

I believe that when I see it, mortgage rates come from the bond market and bonds are fairly steady these days. granted if the big 5 are hurting for lending biz they could take a hit and drop rates just to attract business.

[Abby_wx]

Realtors warn that if housing market collapses everyone could one day afford house

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2017/08/re ... ord-house/

[Canada Goose]

Realtors warn that if housing market collapses everyone could one day afford house

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2017/08/re ... ord-house/

This news is 2 years old.

And I don't believe (at all) in a housing market collapse.

[Abby_wx]

This news is 2 years old.

And I don't believe (at all) in a housing market collapse.

I realized after posting that it was two years old. People are still sharing it, so it still seems relevant right now.

I don't believe in a collapse either, because to me that implies a steep drop of 50% or more. I'm expecting a long, slow decline in the order of 30-40%.

[Canada Goose]

I'm expecting a long, slow decline in the order of 30-40%.

Even that is highly unlikely to me... Can you be right!

[Abby_wx]

Bring on the Real Estate Crash

https://thetyee.ca/Views/2008/11/20/BoomCrash/

Oops, 11 year old article.

[John]

Even that is highly unlikely to me... Can you be right!

Prices will pick up or at least stay stable later next year. No way it will drop 30%. Maybe 5