Climate Change Discussion

Talk Science, Stats, Climate, Meteorology, or even Geology!
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Post by Canada Goose » Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:15 pm

Forrest Gump wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:23 pm
‘I don’t want to die’: 7-year-olds left terrified after Greta Thunberg presentation

https://www.lifesitenews.com/mobile/new ... esentation
I hate this girl.
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Post by tyweather » Tue Dec 24, 2019 7:21 am

Maybe 7 year olds should not attend the presentations. But the rest of us should listen to the science. The science is saying that it is us that is causing the problem. Humans are causing other problems as well like the extinction of species, plastic pollution, water pollution. Why is it such a stretch to not think that we can affect the climate with enough pollution?

https://buff.ly/397UkwJ

‘There’s no doubt left’ about scientific consensus on global warming anymore

The scientific consensus that humans are causing global warming is likely to have passed 99 percent, according to the lead author of the most authoritative study on the subject, and could rise further after separate research that clears up some of the remaining doubts.
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Post by Glacier » Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:06 pm

Climate change is real, but it's really counterproductive when silly predictions are made. This is but one of them. Do these people not understand how much of a temperature difference that is going up a couple hundred meters? During the heat waves in the summer temperature drops by 1 degree every 100m rise in elevation. Given the fact we have warmed by a fraction of a degree during the summer melt phase, the glaciers would be at maximum 50 m higher then they were 100 years ago.

Anyway, the failed prediction of glaciers disappearing is forcing Montana to take down signs claiming they would be gone by 2020... https://www.kpax.com/news/local-news/fl ... 2020-signs
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Post by Glacier » Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:38 am

The Ice Age Cometh?

;)
pgextrememin.png
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Post by Roberts Creeker » Sat Jan 25, 2020 7:23 pm

Glacier wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:38 am
The Ice Age Cometh?

;)

pgextrememin.png
Aren't you supposed to use black sharpie? :lol: :lol:
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Post by Glacier » Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:49 am

The problem with climate change discussions is that most people (on both sides) continue to pedal fake climate data. No one here does that, but I would say that 99% of articles I've read contain significant errors.

Here is the latest...
Fires, floods, rain, heat: Okanagan climate projections call for more extreme weather

I'm sure they got most of this one right, but I just spot checked one of their claims to see if it verified:
In the past, the Okanagan experienced just under a week per year, on average, of days above 30 C. By the 2050s, we can expect more than three weeks of blistering heat – and over five weeks by the 2080s, the report projects.
Translation: The Okanagan used to have 7 days of +30 weather, but it will be 21 days in 30 years time, and then by 35 days in 60 years.

Let's fact check that with the two Okanagan weather stations with long term records:
pentictonover30.png
okcentreover30.png
Even the cooler second station that sides up well over 500m on the top of a hill in the North Okanagan has never averaged 7 days, nor is there any long term upward trend! There is simply no trend toward. In the case of Penticton, it averages 30 days already, which it has for decades, and that's more than 21 days it's supposed to hit by 2050. Even the cooler, northern and higher elevation station averages 21 days today.

How on earth did they come up with 7 days anywhere in the Okanagan?
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Post by moonshadow0825 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:14 am

Glacier wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:49 am
The problem with climate change discussions is that most people (on both sides) continue to pedal fake climate data. No one here does that, but I would say that 99% of articles I've read contain significant errors.

Here is the latest...
Fires, floods, rain, heat: Okanagan climate projections call for more extreme weather

I'm sure they got most of this one right, but I just spot checked one of their claims to see if it verified:


Translation: The Okanagan used to have 7 days of +30 weather, but it will be 21 days in 30 years time, and then by 35 days in 60 years.

Let's fact check that with the two Okanagan weather stations with long term records:

pentictonover30.png

okcentreover30.png

Even the cooler second station that sides up well over 500m on the top of a hill in the North Okanagan has never averaged 7 days, nor is there any long term upward trend! There is simply no trend toward. In the case of Penticton, it averages 30 days already, which it has for decades, and that's more than 21 days it's supposed to hit by 2050. Even the cooler, northern and higher elevation station averages 21 days today.

How on earth did they come up with 7 days anywhere in the Okanagan?
Agree 100% with this. I like to be positive and assume journalists do fact checking; however, on this issue and the others tied to it (food sustainability and veganism) there seems to be precious few analytical skills applied to the data. There are huge biases at the extreme ends of the belief spectrum which roll down to the middle where traditionally the moderates would have tried to find the truth in between. These days it seems the filter down effect of the extreme beliefs turns conversation into moral battles with each side vigorously defending it's position despite the facts.

One of my pet peeves is the recent effort to smooth historical data to the point where it eliminates the medieval warm period so modern scientists can prove current warming is man made and extreme rather than partially due to the cyclical nature of climate (before someone flames, yes I know modern society has had an impact on climate but imho it's not the only reason)
Translation: The Okanagan used to have 7 days of +30 weather, but it will be 21 days in 30 years time, and then by 35 days in 60 years.
my industry we refer to this as the "Elvis extrapolation"
in At the time Elvis Presley died in 1977, he had 150 impersonators in the US. Now, according to calculations I spotted in a Sunday newspaper colour supplement recently, there are 85,000. Intriguingly, that means one in every 3,400 Americans is an Elvis impersonator. More disturbingly, if Elvis impersonators continue multiplying at the same rate, they will account for a third of the world’s population by 2019
what makes this extrapolation even more humorous to me is the extrapolation itself has grown since the 90's when it was first used to explain why you shouldn't try to apply linear trends to market movements
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Post by Glacier » Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:39 am

Fact check #2:
Warmer temperatures year-round. True.

Summers will be considerably hotter. That depends how they define "considerably", but, the trend is definitely warm...
pentictonsummermean.png
Increased duration of growing season. True.

Warmer winter temperatures. True...
pentictonwintermean.png
Increased precipitation across all seasons except summer. FALSE. Increase among ALL seasons including summer!
pentictonsummerprecip.png
Summer is expected to remain the driest season, and become drier. FALSE! Summer is NOT the driest season. Summer is the WETTEST season of the year!!!
Average precipitation in winter = 85.2 mm
Average precipitation in Spring = 83.8 mm
Average precipitation in Summer = 92.1 mm
Average precipitation in Fall =79.3 mm


We can expect shifting seasons. Not sure exactly what the mean here.
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Re: February 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by tyweather » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:44 am

January was yet another record warm month for the planet earth. This January notably edged out January 2016 as warmest on record, despite the fact that January 2016 was in an El Niño. El Niño’s add heat to the atmosphere, and typically cause warm anomalies on top of the steady global warming trend, so they’re hard to beat in an ENSO-neutral year. The four warmest January’s on record have occurred in the past five years. (Image: NOAA/NCEI).
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Re: February 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:10 pm

tyweather wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:44 am
January was yet another record warm month for the planet earth. This January notably edged out January 2016 as warmest on record, despite the fact that January 2016 was in an El Niño. El Niño’s add heat to the atmosphere, and typically cause warm anomalies on top of the steady global warming trend, so they’re hard to beat in an ENSO-neutral year. The four warmest January’s on record have occurred in the past five years. (Image: NOAA/NCEI).
Phil can put forth his bullshit theories about a global cooling period coming but reality is that skeptics have been overpromising on a cold period. 2018-2021 was supposed to be just that. Low solar this season was supposed to lead to impressive cold in the USA but the opposite happened. The theories they keep putting forth are such horse crap.

Truth is the globe is heating up and the recent spikes are due to CO2 release from humans.
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Re: February 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Sardisbcwx » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:15 pm

wetcoast91 wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:10 pm
Phil can put forth his bullshit theories about a global cooling period coming but reality is that skeptics have been overpromising on a cold period. 2018-2021 was supposed to be just that. Low solar this season was supposed to lead to impressive cold in the USA but the opposite happened. The theories they keep putting forth are such horse crap.

Truth is the globe is heating up and the recent spikes are due to CO2 release from humans.
Too much human tooting. :lol: :oops:
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Re: February 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Antares » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:13 pm

Sardisbcwx wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:15 pm
Too much human tooting. :lol: :oops:
I didn't know sardines fart. :sick: :lol:
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Re: February 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Sardisbcwx » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:48 pm

Antares wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:13 pm
I didn't know sardines fart. :sick: :lol:
Why of course Antman I make the world's largest toot bubbles. :D I reached an astounding high of 10.5c in south Sardis.
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Re: February 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:39 pm

wetcoast91 wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:10 pm
Phil can put forth his bullshit theories about a global cooling period coming but reality is that skeptics have been overpromising on a cold period. 2018-2021 was supposed to be just that. Low solar this season was supposed to lead to impressive cold in the USA but the opposite happened. The theories they keep putting forth are such horse crap.

Truth is the globe is heating up and the recent spikes are due to CO2 release from humans.
The C02 theory is bull crap too. Why do people go along with the climate change alarmist hype propoganda? Use some common sense and stop allowing the media to control you. Its really frustrating. The climate has always been changing. Its nothing new. Its nothing catastrophic and the human impact is very minimal. Sure, we are warming. Its nothing alarming in least bit. We warmed a long time ago and then cooled and now we are warming again. The climate goes in cycles. Of course the charts the alarmists show don't go back far enough in history to accurately show that wha we are experiencing now is nothing new. :roll: :roll: :crazy: :crazy:
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Re: February 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells » Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:42 pm

AbbyJr wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:39 pm
The C02 theory is bull crap too. Why do people go along with the climate change alarmist hype propoganda? Use some common sense and stop allowing the media to control you. Its really frustrating. The climate has always been changing. Its nothing new. Its nothing catastrophic and the human impact is very minimal. Sure, we are warming. Its nothing alarming in least bit. We warmed a long time ago and then cooled and now we are warming again. The climate goes in cycles. Of course the charts the alarmists show don't go back far enough in history to accurately show that wha we are experiencing now is nothing new. :roll: :roll: :crazy: :crazy:
Wide spread doubt in the scientific theory of agw is well noted. But I'm curious if you could actually back it up. All I've seen is tin foil hat level conspiracy. The actual science is 100% solid and trust me, I dont watch the news. If there were a theory that disproved it or even managed to cast doubt on the greenhouse effect and our impact, surely it would have been known by now.

You do realize how sbsurd it is to expect people to believe AGW is a worldwide hoax, supported by scientists, governments and Media around the world?
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