November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[Catnip]

18z Day 10 precip totals:

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As of HR 306 it just goes off the rails crazy with more :

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[Catnip]

1st part of Dec could be an interesting one, weather wise.

[Weather101]

1st part of Dec could be an interesting one, weather wise.

It definitely will be.

[tyweather]

Off the rails

[Hound]

https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comm ... ago_today/

[HughCorne]

(Late) Good morning from YVR!

Tower was reporting 0 statute miles in freezing fog.

[AbbyJr]

It's nice to see so many clowns in the models today.

[AbbyJr]

Very frosty here this morning. Captured some photos on my new iPhone 14 Pro Max.

Edit: I'm only able to attach one of them because the rest exceed the 5mb file size limit. Stuffy, is there any way it could be increased to 10mb? I'd rather not compress them down and suffer any quality loss.

IMG_0007.jpeg

[Hawk]

Squamish and Port Alberni EC says
It has begun. Yesssss
After all these chilly days and now the snow is closing in on us

[PortKells]

+ =

SN.png

and then

SN2.png

Happy birthday to me. However I've been promised a snowstorm on that date by the models for several years in a row and it hasn't happened so I'm lacking a bit of faith in the clowns.

[PortKells]

Squamish and Port Alberni EC says
It has begun. Yesssss
After all these chilly days and now the snow is closing in on us

The rain train gives me hope that we can get a December cold snap, that feels like its often the order of things. Or maybe more like pineapples -> ridging -> retrogression -> col.

[AbbyJr]

The rain train gives me hope that we can get a December cold snap, that feels like its often the order of things. Or maybe more like pineapples -> ridging -> retrogression -> col.

The polar vortex is modelled to significantly weaken through December with a Sudden Stratospheric Warming possible by January.

While this does not by any means guarantee anything, most of our arctic blasts during El Niño are associated with a Sudden Stratospheric Warming. I’m still thinking we could see some cold and snow late December or early January. Time will tell.

It should be noted that while a weakened polar vortex looks likely, there is still low probability at this time for a legit Sudden Stratospheric Warming but some Euro members suggest it.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Some phantom snow for metro Vancouver showing up on the HRRR and NAM 3km.

DP's show saturated air, temps of 2˚C or above at the surface, 0˚C or above at 925 mbar = cold rain for most. Maybe some wet flakeys atop Burnaby Mountain.

hrrr-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-1432000.png

nam-nest-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-1432000.png

[Bonovox]

I’ve been salting my driveway for weeks in preparation for the hammer to drop.

[wetcoast91]

I’ve been salting my driveway for weeks in preparation for the hammer to drop.

00Z GFS painting a grim picture.Very high freezing levels and intense rainfall for 2.5-3 days.

Probably going to go into mid December with bare Mountains.