December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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VanCitySouth
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Weather101 wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 2:25 pm Then we can move them to 7000m !!
Sometimes I'm convinced that humanity would sooner colonise Mars than do something to make our society more sustainable for the earth.
2023-24 season stats:
Climo :cancel: 81 to 44 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 39.0 cm + 3 traces
Peak depth: 28.0 cm (Jan 17)
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

PortKells wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 12:31 pm Just not enough ridging in Alaska.
Typical El Niño. :bang:

If this were a La Niña or even neutral, the projected pattern would likely feature more amplification of the ridge. We usually do well here in the PNW during a cold or neutral ENSO when the polar vortex is weak. Just not a favourable ENSO state this winter. A major SSW with a full wind reversal would likely have helped tremendously. Unfortunately, that scenario has vanished from the models.
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
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Typeing3
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

18z GFS:


Could see lots of snow above 800m for the coast and down to the valley floors all across the interior next Friday/Saturday (day 6/7).
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh138-174.gif


...Followed by some modified arctic air settling into the interior on Sunday (day 8). Might see some trickle out to the coast.
gfs_T850_nwus_fh174-204.gif


...NW slider could bring some slush/snow down to sea level by Monday (day 9).
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh204-222.gif


...By Tuesday (day 10), a stronger system approaches from the W/SW, leading to outflow drawing out some modified arctic air out of the interior with another chance of slush/snow down to sea level.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh228-252.gif
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:typing: :type3:
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wetcoast91
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

VanCitySouth wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 2:50 pm Sometimes I'm convinced that humanity would sooner colonise Mars than do something to make our society more sustainable for the earth.
Humanity? More like the 1%. We are just passengers on this doomed vessel and are totally helpless.
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Mattman »

Made the trip back from Kelowna to Mission yesterday. With the Coq now truly a freeway since Nov ‘21, and with bare and dry roads with only a couple wet areas, time on the road was 3hrs 10 minutes. That excludes the Tim Hortons stop and a pee break for the women folk. Best travel time since Easter 2017. It’s a blessing to have that highway fully open and not bottlenecked to two lanes even in only a couple areas.
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Typeing3 wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 3:16 pm 18z GFS:


Could see lots of snow above 800m for the coast and down to the valley floors all across the interior next Friday/Saturday (day 6/7).
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh138-174.gif



...Followed by some modified arctic air settling into the interior on Sunday (day 8). Might see some trickle out to the coast.
gfs_T850_nwus_fh174-204.gif



...NW slider could bring some slush/snow down to sea level by Monday (day 9).
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh204-222.gif



...By Tuesday (day 10), a stronger system approaches from the W/SW, leading to outflow drawing out some modified arctic air out of the interior with another chance of slush/snow down to sea level.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh228-252.gif
Looks like it could really help the snowpack situation in the mountains at least.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Now at 297.9 mm for the month and it’s coming down pretty hard out there.

Looks like I’m about to break the 300 mm barrier.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by tyweather »

Travel was fairly easy to Vanderhoof as well on December 23 with the only snowy section near Clinton. 100 Mile House to Prince George didn't even have any old snow and the hills were bare.
This picture was from between Williams Lake and Quesnel.
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Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 4:33 pm Humanity? More like the 1%. We are just passengers on this doomed vessel and are totally helpless.
Yeah but it seems like a large proportion of the passengers either don't know or don't care.
2023-24 season stats:
Climo :cancel: 81 to 44 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 39.0 cm + 3 traces
Peak depth: 28.0 cm (Jan 17)
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Okay, that’s pretty good.
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Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Bonovox wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 9:15 pm Okay, that’s pretty good.
Not bad I have my doubt it’s not just an outlier given what I’ve seen of the ensembles but I’m eager to be wrong.

As for the snowlessness, there’s not been anything like this in the interior in living memory. Those pictures are mind numbing.’
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Bonovox wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 9:15 pm Okay, that’s pretty good.
Jim is practically having an orgasm about it over on the AF. Which is going to make the reaction there when the inevitable pullback happens all the more amusing.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Nice improvement on the ensembles.
B4F4FBF2-E5ED-43B6-BD97-534C729C2121.jpeg
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

:lol: :lol: :clap: :clap:

:14clown: :14clown: :14clown:

Ya… sure…
CB452ECF-F4AA-429F-81D7-C2E3D0E23B01.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 10:38 pm Jim is practically having an orgasm about it over on the AF. Which is going to make the reaction there when the inevitable pullback happens all the more amusing.
Still a ways to go. Still too early for excitement. :mrgreen:

Never too late for a rug pull right? ;)
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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