January 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Michael1]

a strong N.W wind just kicked up out of nowhere with darkening clouds. Weird

[PortKells]

MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

Thanks Storm. Guess we're still 13 days away . The operationals must just be on a new year's cocaine high.

[arbetrader]

Happy new year everyone... I'm lurking as usual but thought I'd chime in. I seem to remember long range thicknesses forecast in the high 490s for Abbotsford a number of years ago. Perhaps December 08? Can't quite remember the date but do remember seeing it... Obviously didn't verify but got close one of those days I seem to remember Abbywx hitting -15 briefly in Abbotsford one cold morning.

[AbbyJr]

Good news is that models are doing away with the +SST anomalies in the NPAC. There is more jet consolidation in the LR. The same models are tending to over amplify the NPAC ridge in the the extended range over and over. This has been an issue with the EPS and GFS ensembles this entire season.

Progressive is way better than stagnation and increases the % of seeing lowland snow and major storms.

I may have a Jan warm bias but am willing to bet Feb gets really interesting this year once the dust settles.

You always have a warm bias.

[Catnip]

From Global:

B89B9057-92A0-4ABA-B3B7-F2ADABDBC878.png

[tyweather]

Urban heat island effects.

It would be interesting to see how the Aggaziz station compares.

[Abby_wx]

Happy new year everyone... I'm lurking as usual but thought I'd chime in. I seem to remember long range thicknesses forecast in the high 490s for Abbotsford a number of years ago. Perhaps December 08? Can't quite remember the date but do remember seeing it... Obviously didn't verify but got close one of those days I seem to remember Abbywx hitting -15 briefly in Abbotsford one cold morning.

I wonder if it could be January 2012 you're thinking of... I reached -13.1C that month. I also reached the same temperature in December 2008. I've never dropped below -13.1C in the 15 years I've lived here. The airport may have gotten a bit colder due to better radiative cooling in that area.

[tyweather]

Over the past 119 years, #Vancouver's annual precipitation has decreased by about 332mm. #YvrWx https://t.co/t8Af34ySA2

[Hughc0rne]

Special weather statement up:

A strong Pacific storm is on the way for Thursday afternoon and Friday for the BC coast.

The storm will approach the coast on Thursday. Precipitation spreads onto Vancouver Island late on Thursday morning and onto the south coast early Thursday afternoon. Strong southeasterly winds will also develop on Thursday afternoon.

Initially temperatures will be cold enough to allow some of the precipitation to start as wet snow over higher elevations of Vancouver Island and the south coast.

By Thursday evening warm air accompanying the storm will drive freezing levels and temperatures higher so that precipitation changes to rain for most communities. The exception may be Whistler and the Sea to Sky Highway from Squamish to Whistler where snow could persist longer.

The heavy rain and strong winds continue all day on Friday. The highest rainfall amounts will be over the central coast, north and west Vancouver Island. Areas of Squamish, northern sections of Metro Vancouver, and the Fraser Valley will also significant amounts of rainfall.

In areas where snow does accumulate, a higher chance of localized flooding is possible due to rain on snow.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm.

In effect for:
Fraser Valley

[Abby_wx]

It would be interesting to see how the Aggaziz station compares.

Yeah, good point. I would respectfully disagree that UHI effect accounts for more than a small fraction of the observed warming.

[Hawk]

44047208-4AC7-4230-ABB1-B79EDE6C0637.png

Hawk’s BUTTEE:
32CA0025-822B-43DD-B459-8A9D8DFD5527.png

Lol. Always looks great on maps. Once the Arctic High crosses the Rockies..it rarely retrogrades. Usually slides south and east

[Hawk]

From Global:

B89B9057-92A0-4ABA-B3B7-F2ADABDBC878.png

Abby 0cm AGAIN. Lmao

[Hawk]

MOOOOOVE

[wetcoast91]

You always have a warm bias.

#Climo
#Usual
#PacificInsulation

[Catnip]

#Climo
#Usual
#PacificInsulation

You missed one.

#