January 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Antares]

What could be wrong with the gfs

Snowwizard programmed it.

[John]

Yaya say gfs is broken. To bad but It was fun watching these bs runs
Lol.

[Catnip]

Buddy seems to be going all in.

https://ovs.com/wx-cafe

[AbbyJr]

Rufus is on team GFS

Major Winter Event Possible

OK, lots to cover here, as a relatively rare - for the PNW - extended winter event may strike the entire PNW & portions of CA in the weeks ahead. Should this verify, Patrons should be prepared for wx conditions that impact schools, travel, work, property, animals. This is not an overreaction, nor an alarmist freakout, it is simply a heads-up to the thousands of you reading this with Mug in hand. Got your attention??

OVERALL: wet & blustery wx for a few days, then WHAM, the Arctic Outbreak begins, with multiple days of SNOW between Jan 11-21. Easiest to break this down into pieces, so stay with us ---

Rain tonight Fri Jan 3, windy. Showers Sat before another wet system hits overnight into Sunday morning. Showers & cooler Sunday. Monday looks damp north of Eugene. Mostly dry on Tue Jan 7 during daylight hours, then WET and WINDY overnight into Wed. Turning chilly Thu and dry, except for NW WA, where precip will continue, on & off.

BIG CHANGE begins Thu night, Jan 9, as the strongest storm of next week’s series arrives. It will pack HEAVY RAIN & notable WIND FIELD. Short break in the action Fri, with a secondary pair of Lows moving in - one west of Astoria, the other over Vancouver Is. The northern Low will draw COLD air over Vancouver Island, NW WA north of Everett and bring on SNOWFALL at the surface by Saturday morning. The support for all of this is a deep, bitterly cold YUKON DOME of high pressure (1042-1048 mb) that moves south, spilling Arctic cold air into the PNW.

SNOW will continue to expand south into Oregon by 10 pm Sat Jan 11. Moderate snowfall is charted for the Willamette Valley down into Roseburg by early Sunday morning, the 12th. During the day Sunday, WINDS out of the Fraser Gap will intensify, as that “Yukon Dome” will be so ‘deep’ it spills westside. Temps will plummet across the region. Dew Points likely to dip into the teens & 20s. Sunday evening should be dry and the coldest of the season, for just about every location. ICY. Story time: California could experience snow in the Sacramento Valley. But wait, there’s more —

A short ‘warm-up’ is charted by Tue Jan 14 for areas south of Bellingham/Everett, as another system moves in from the NW. This could simply add to problems in the region, as FREEZING RAIN, on top of the valley snow, is possible in western valley before the wind picks up. Note: Patrons in NW WA will continue to get SNOW later on Mon (think Fraser Freezer door still open). Rain will be in play overnight Tue for western OR, with SNOW or snow showers returning Wed & Thu Jan 15-16 for just about everyone both sides of the Cascades. Yikes.

Bored yet? Well, this event may keep going. Another YUKON DOME (mid 1040s mb) is modeled to form and begin round two over the PNW. The air mass will be very cold for the PNW, with the strongest Fraser Gap winds of this event to begin - wind could gust over 70 MPH north of Bellingham. Hold on, Lynden / Abbotsford. The Columbia River Gorge outflow will also kick into gear in a major way, as well. Temps outside of the wind likely to be coldest of this whole episode. Plumbers will be working overtime when this all thaws out.

SNOW is likely to return, yet again, by Fri & Sat Jan 17,18 because a Low off the west coast will pump moisture northward into the PNW, over that cold air mass. Double Yikes. In this situation, most of the snowfall will be south of Portland. Just plain icy cold in the Puget Sound.

There is no real warm-up seen on the charts until at least after the 21-22nd, if then, because a large High pressure ridge over the central Gulf of Alaska will direct cold, continental air & surface Lows that may form into the PNW as snowy systems. Story time number 2.

In Summary: this is all model driven outlook, but we have been monitoring such a dramatic winter event for many days now, so confidence that the event discussed above, or a reasonable version thereof, is likely. Hence, our concern on Patrons taking heed, just in case. What if schools are closed, if access to work is challenging, if Ag interests don’t have plans in place to “knock the snow off the hoops/tunnel greenhouses”? There will be negative impact.

Updates here, as warranted. If it looks like 55 degrees & rain is all we get, then, your morning beverage consumption was at least entertaining!

-Rufus

https://twitter.com/TheWxCafe/status/12 ... 60000?s=19

[wetcoast91]

The 500mb pattern isnt too far off but the GFS has had a tendancy to over amplify the Greenland/NPAC ridging outside of 4-5 days. These are why you are continiously seeing crazy extremes in the 7+ day period.

[AbbyJr]

I’m thinking they still haven’t ironed out all the bugs in the updates they made to it. Last winter, it was called the experimental FV3 model, and it was continually exhibiting a crazy cold and snowy bias.

To be fair, the GEFS went way colder this morning and it's not based on the upgraded GFS.

[Canada Goose]

[John]

Rufus is on team GFS



https://twitter.com/TheWxCafe/status/12 ... 60000?s=19

Guess he only looks at gfs

[Catnip]

03BF9C97-9448-4451-B890-F549B93BF2F0.png

[Monty]

58BA8BF1-FA75-45C9-A5D7-9836E83CA1BD.png

Slightly colder version of yesterday. Looks similar setup

[Bonovox]

FWIW, the 12Z 12km NAM shows snow all day Monday.

[tyweather]

Comparing the GFS, GEFS, GEPS and GEM. The GEM ensemble has been consistently showing the cold over the coast. The OP model not so much.

[Catnip]

Improvements thus far on the Euro.

[Bonovox]

Improvements thus far on the Euro.

Yeah. Looks like a tad better amplification into Alaska.

[Storm]

Improvements thus far on the Euro.

Crown prince GFS? It's time to dethrone the King.