January 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Storm]

Initial cool shot is Thursday then that system warms things up a bit before cold air comes in behind that.

Same ideas as before more or less.

Nothing delayed, perhaps sped up slightly the last few runs.

Hawk is in denial.

[VanCitySouth]

Soon the cold will be coming in Jan 13..then 15th. Geezus. Painful watching u guys get strung along so much

I mean, the GFS has been remarkably consistent in the Jan 10-13 frame. The timing hasn't moved back at all from run to run. If I go on Tropical Tidbits and pick the frame for hour 192 (18z Jan 11 2020, initialised 18z today), I can go back every single run until 06z Dec 31 before I find the pattern being progged significantly differently. That's 14 runs in a row, by my count. The reason I posted the Charlie Brown football comic is because with YVR you're never sure until you're sure. Doesn't mean I don't think our chances are getting better.

[Catnip]

Monday am.

[Catnip]

78995160-68DB-4BBE-A117-EBF44B08A33E.png

[Catnip]

Looks like the ensembles may warm a bit.

[Hawk]

on cue...S winds kicked in at the Pitt. Temp shot up to 13.6..just in time as the sun descends into the thick clouds

Predict 14.2c
observed 13.6c and counting?

[Canada Goose]

-23C in the Fraser Valley!

[Hawk]

-23C in the Fraser Valley!

Yes can the models not factor in Climo a little bit? Geez.

[Hawk]

..unless of course we get a really cold Arctic intrusion..record setting..Like Nito was saying but he had the wrong side of the country? PG High like the old days?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Looks like the ensembles may warm a bit.

I'm sure they will. -10ËšF in Langley, and -22ËšF in Hope? No way.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

-23C in the Fraser Valley!

No… check the units in the title… -23˚F!

[Canada Goose]

No… check the units in the title… -23˚F!

Ya, I know...

-10F = -23C.

Capture d’écran 2020-01-03 à 15.38.29.jpg

[stuffradio]

-23C in the Fraser Valley!

We had windchill values in the -10 to -15C range in the valley in Jan 2012, so is it really that outlandish?

[Forrest Gump]

Car thermometer registering 14°

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

..unless of course we get a really cold Arctic intrusion..record setting..Like Nito was saying but he had the wrong side of the country? PG High like the old days?

This is not even “the old days;” this is unprecedented. Look at the forecast low for Hope: -22˚F. Wikipedia says the coldest temperature observed in Hope was -13˚F in January (doubtless 1950). (And yes, that map is in ˚F, not ˚C.) Tying January 1950 is a slim enough chance (so slim as to be effectively zero in any given year). Blowing Jan 1950 out of the water, by 9˚F margin? Not. Gonna. Happen.