January 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Monty]

Haha. People are uptight I see.

[AbbyJr]

12Z GFS looking colder than the 6Z in the clown range.
Crisis averted. Phew.

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 68736?s=19

[John]

Canadian is caving to gfs...

[Monty]

Gfs does setup a massive pool of arctic air in the interior from sunday and beyond. With no mechanism to drive it south that could setup the potential for a “battleground” type of snowstorm. Those are generally our biggest snowfalls when they occur

[John]

Canadian is caving to gfs...

Exactly
We have Monty back !! To much nito got you

[PortKells]

Haha. How is saying Friday’s system shows rain at sea level, being negative. It’s not my fault. Blame the GFS

Saying the GFS caved is negative and kinda wrong IMO. The other models caved in the big picture, while the GFS is simply pulling back from giving us an armageddon cold snap with a meter of snow. The GFS is the big winner here, as hard as it is to say that

[Catnip]

Would be nice to not see things keep getting delayed though.

[Catnip]

Details for a Friday will most likely continue to change... for better or for worse.

[wetcoast91]

Still 8+ days away!

There is potential but this is being constantly pushed back.

[Catnip]

Fwiw, the Op is on the warm side of the mean for the Friday/Saturday timeframe.

[Monty]

Saying the GFS caved is negative and kinda wrong IMO. The other models caved in the big picture, while the GFS is simply pulling back from giving us an armageddon cold snap with a meter of snow. The GFS is the big winner here, as hard as it is to say that

I see. Okay the GFS is backpedaling and finding a middle ground with the other models. It had been so consistent on the arctic front idea, I was almost convinced. Could still change for the better. As I said the other day, our best events often show up on short notice. 3-4 days out.

Edit. And my original post with the term “caved” was clearly only referencing next Friday’s system.

[PortKells]

Still 8+ days away!

There is potential but this is being constantly pushed back.

I dont see that. The original event was always a cold onshore flow event with arctic air coming afterward. That appears to still be true. And you literally just posted we were 10 days away so which is it? Anyways, still plenty of time for this to fall apart and you to dance on its grave. You might like the Gem actually. Not great..

[Catnip]

8E84910E-CECA-4B56-89A5-FBBE68B5F372.jpeg

[Monty]

Fwiw, the Op is on the warm side of the mean for the Friday/Saturday timeframe.

Looks like the mean is about to really drop off next Sunday. Keep us posted.