Winter 2020-2021

[PortKells]

Just my opinion. But I think those crazy snow totals are probably an attainable mark even given today’s climate. The persistent top tier cold waves we used to see 50 plus years ago are probably more of a challenge to attain.

I'll agree with this, although it will be tough to obtain those lofty figures with a continuous string of weak and underperformed cold waves. We get too much mixed precip and so many busts. I remember NITO pointed out how even slightly warmer waters off our coast can be very costly.

[AbbyJr]

I'll agree with this, although it will be tough to obtain those lofty figures with a continuous string of weak and underperformed cold waves. We get too much mixed precip and so many busts. I remember NITO pointed out how even slightly warmer waters off our coast can be very costly.

Yes that is very true. I've looked at the historical SST's and all of our best winter's has had below average anomolies off our coast and did not feature the son of a blob. No doubt our climate is changing but I do think we will go back into a colder cycle again. No idea when though. Hopefully soon

[Typeing3]

I'll agree with this, although it will be tough to obtain those lofty figures with a continuous string of weak and underperformed cold waves. We get too much mixed precip and so many busts. I remember NITO pointed out how even slightly warmer waters off our coast can be very costly.

This has definitely played a part in reducing onshore flow snowfalls over the past few years. Used to see a lot more of those sloppy 2-10cm type snowfalls down to sea level under chilly NW flow a few times during most winters.

Even with relatively small totals those snowfalls would all add up and would account for a small percentage of yearly snowfall totals before that is basically nonexistent now.

[Weather101]

I think you may have misunderstood what W101 was trying to say Jr. Climate cycles occur across long periods of time and he was trying to point out how - generally - snowfall and cold anomalies (relative to our old averages) have and continue to decrease during the period of record.

I have no idea what the climate was like here in 500AD but from what we've observed over the past ~150 years (about how far back "reliable" observations go) at a local level, it's pretty obvious annual snowfall has decreased while winter average temps have simultaneously increased.

In a climate where just a few degrees is the difference between rain and snow during winter, it's pretty apparent that winters (on average) have warmed during the course of our short lifetimes. So when W101 said we don't get as much snow/cold as we got in 50s or 60s, I'd have to agree...Vancouver has gone from averaging ~70cm if snow annually at the turn of the 20th century to averaging ~35cm today.
Vancouver Snowfall.PNG

Of course if we go way further back (thousands or millions of years), the climate's gone through periods when averages were a lot warmer than present. And undoubtedly in the future we'll go through cooler cycles again. But I don't think that's what he was getting at...more so that our climate has warmed over our local period of record. Which is true.

This is exactly what I meant, Thanks for clarifying

[Weather101]

Exactly. To suggest it will never happen again is a rather strange claim, because its essentially saying man knows the future. To think that we as humans are capable of knowing that the climate will never go back into a cold cycle is honestly ridiculously silly. Not to mention the climate goes in cycles. This is nothing new. The earth has had cold cycles and warm cycles. The problem is that the media keeps pushing this ridiculous man made climate change non sense and brainwashing those who believe everything they say. There are many scientists that don't agree with the media's climate change hype. Why not consider what they have to say? Its all one sided as if its settled science when in fact its not. Climate is far more complex than man's minor contribution.

You don't need too see the future too pick up a pattern. It's like having a bleeding hand and pretending it's fine and not happening but that's beside the point. Even if the earth goes back into a cold cycle it won't be in our lifetime anyways so it really is a invalid point since we won't experience it. I'm simply talking about how our snowfalls per year have been undercut from the 50s and 60s. A single degree of warmth can take us from having a snowfall too a slop fest or just straight rain and you been seeing that the past decade. I really don't see us having top tier cold like the 50s and 60s let alone snowfall. I know you love cold and snow so you get passionate which is great so hopefully we see a decent winter.

[Canuck]

Hello fellow nerds. Tomorrow is Oct. 1 which means my mind is STARTING to shift to snowy thoughts (even though we have summer weather right now). Anyways...what is the current outlook for this Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb? Snow? Cold? Give me some good news in this 2020 shitshow.

[Typeing3]

Hot off the press updated CanSIPS seasonal forecast.

December/January/February 500mb height anomalies:

cansips_z500a_namer_3.png

cansips_z500a_namer_4.png

cansips_z500a_namer_5.png

[AbbyJr]

Hot off the press updated CanSIPS seasonal forecast.

December/January/February 500mb height anomalies:
cansips_z500a_namer_3.pngcansips_z500a_namer_4.pngcansips_z500a_namer_5.png

Wow very strong signal for a N Pacific and SE ridge to dominate this upcoming winter.

[Antares]

Can we please not talk about climate change in this thread?

[PortKells]

Wow very strong signal for a N Pacific and SE ridge to dominate this upcoming winter.

That is sooooo far out. I encourage people not to get too excited until the snow is piled up on their doorsteps. We've been down heartbreak lane so many times.

[AbbyJr]

Can we please not talk about climate change in this thread?

I'm sorry, that was my fault. I messaged Stuffy and he has moved the discussions to the appropriate thread.

[Storm]

Hot off the press updated CanSIPS seasonal forecast.

This looks better.

December/January/February 500mb height anomalies:
cansips_z500a_namer_3.pngcansips_z500a_namer_4.pngcansips_z500a_namer_5.png

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/sta ... 10368?s=19

[Monty]

This is it folks. This is going to be the big one. I’m taking the over on 100cm at YVR this winter.

[stuffradio]

This is it folks. This is going to be the big one. I’m taking the over on 100cm at YVR this winter.

1950 redux with salt wars 3.0