January 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Storm]

Ok then.

gem_T850_nwus_36.png

[Catnip]

Looks like the ensembles are bringing things back to reality (for now?).

65F44AD7-09EF-4C36-9176-F5BB9C17E45C.jpeg

[AbbyJr]

I can’t remember a time where a model kept spitting out all these super cold solutions. It’s been days now. This will really be a good test for the upgraded GFS. It seems to be handling the pattern a bit better than other models right now, although most likely too cold.

My guess is that the GFS is leading the way in terms of correctly handling the pattern but that it's overdoing the cold. In other words, it's correct that a prolonged period of arctic air is coming, but the cold won't be as extreme as it's showing.

[Hawk]

Not really sure what to think. All we can do is wait and see. Seems odd to see it so cold when the teleconnections are showing a neutral EPO. I guess the super tanked PNA can overwhelm the pattern. My suspicion is the arctic air may get hung up a little more than the gfs is showing. My apologies in advance for my negative thinking

Its ok..negativity wont change whats going to happen anyways
I think as time goes on, the GFS will modify the cold. Hopefully the models stick to their guns and don't collapse into milder temps as this potential epic event nears. The current storm track pattern looks strong..likely why the cold keeps getting pushed back imo.. This winter, we deserve a massive cold and snowy streak considering we have had nothing so far this year cep foe a cupla slush events which is

[Hawk]

My guess is that the GFS is leading the way in terms of correctly handling the pattern but that it's overdoing the cold. In other words, it's correct that a prolonged period of arctic air is coming, but the cold won't be as extreme as it's showing.

Sorry just posted the same thing. Imo there is a slim to 1% chance of that super cold air coming, and slim just left town Hopefully they have the mid and long range correct..but i'm never holding my breath.

[Monty]

At least the mountains are getting hit today because by tomorrow afternoon “it’s gon rain”

[Storm]

GEM just hop on the Arctic Express.

gem_T850_nwus_40.png

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/MorganKIRO7/status/ ... 48193?s=19

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 91840?s=19

[Canada Goose]

This will really be a good test for the upgraded GFS. It seems to be handling the pattern a bit better than other models right now, although most likely too cold.

Last June, in France, GFS showed Tmax between 44C and 46C (real temperatures) several days before the historic heat wave. And you know what? Well, it was actually 44C to 46C...

[Catnip]

Last June, in France, GFS showed Tmax between 44C and 46C (real temperatures) several days before the historic heat wave. And you know what? Well, it was actually 44C to 46C...

E3ACF3CE-3604-4CEF-9D17-F3D238A689C7.png

[Hawk]

Believe it or not..almost 200 pages ago..there was rumblings of the cold air coming. It is still about 5 to 7 days away. But time is ticking. Soon we will know what is going down Jan 10 to 13. Hang on my friends.

[Canada Goose]

I would say there's 1% chance...

[Catnip]

https://twitter.com/50shadesofvan/statu ... 36161?s=21

[Bonovox]

Not really sure what to think. All we can do is wait and see. Seems odd to see it so cold when the teleconnections are showing a neutral EPO. I guess the super tanked PNA can overwhelm the pattern. My suspicion is the arctic air may get hung up a little more than the gfs is showing. My apologies in advance for my negative thinking

I appreciate your realistic opinion.

[Bonovox]

Yes please...