December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

January 1950 mentioned on the American forums.

That month gets mentioned as an analogue everyday on that forum.

[AbbyJr]

That month gets mentioned as an analogue everyday on that forum.

The most epic years get mentioned on that forum every time there is a chance of a GOA block. Its actually ridiculous.

[Antares]

That month gets mentioned as an analogue everyday on that forum.

I honestly wonder if there were any months like January 1950 in the 1800s. There were probably some serious contenders but not sure if any could top Jan 1950...

[Typeing3]

I honestly wonder if there were any months like January 1950 in the 1800s. There were probably some serious contenders but not sure if any could top Jan 1950...

January 1875. Monthly average temp was -5.9c with an extreme low of -20.6c at the old New Westminster station.

I'm also certain January 1862 was even colder than either 1875 or 1950 but unfortunately there's no detailed monthly data that far back. Extreme suppressed jet pattern that winter with our region locked in an icebox from December thru March with the Fraser frozen over right out to Richmond. Meanwhile California got slammed with endless rains and massive floods with the entire central valley turning into a shallow inland sea. Was basically a very, very, very extreme version of winter 2016-17.

I've also read that January 1854 and 1868 were frigid as well. There were also a couple potentially top tier cold January's in the 1880s (1886 and 1888) but there's also a void of data for most stations in BC through that decade. The only station that recorded any sort of data during that timeframe was Langley, and it was only precip.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

[PortKells]

That warning shot is starting to look like its baked in now.

gfs-ens_T850a_namer_41.png

[AbbyJr]

That warning shot is starting to look like its baked in now.

gfs-ens_T850a_namer_41.png

Models as of yet don't show arctic air but they do show setups that would only need small adjustments to usher in arctic air. Positive trends.

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 59872?s=20

[AbbyJr]

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-7709600.png

[PortKells]

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-7968800.thumb.png.33007dff588f37ad325b0f7f447c8334.png

1461966773_ScreenShot2020-12-01at12_59_53PM.thumb.png.a8cc87e2cc3bfbd6cf3abeb2cf16b793.png

[Antares]

Still far away but heading in the right direction!

[Bonovox]

Some colder and snowier members showing up on the EPS.

[PortKells]

Ten years ago I was living in Edinburgh for one of the UK's most historic cold snaps in the last 50 years, certainly the most significant of this century.

I watched in amazement as a country's infrastructure was enormously stressed by what was to me a fairly routine cold snap, as someone having only lived in Williams Lake and Kelowna.

I dont remember the snowfall amounts or temperatures but it was basically a good cold snap by Vancouver standards, nothing crazy. Edinburghs climate is quite similar to our coastal one but eay less snow and arctic air.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Golden Ears this afternoon.

golden_ears.jpg

[PortKells]

Arctic air touches us on the 18Z. Nothing crazy but the trends continue to work in our favour for 2-3 days now. Should be an interesting few days. I'm very tempted to get weatherbell for this winter so I can stop going down to the crazy forum for maps.