January 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[tyweather]

Just a bit of snow at 3 Valley Gap yesterday

https://www.facebook.com/537726035/post ... 660471036/

[Storm]

Warm bias?

[Monty]

Look at the title again. That map is in ËšF, notËšC. So, even colder! I was just going through some old online archives from the Bellingham Herald about January 1950. That would be that level of cold (Bellingham had days with winds gusting to 70 mph and temperatures in the single digits in 1950.)

That gives me an idea for a tagline in my signature block…

I’m confused. I thought I quoted the 850mb temps map which are shown in C

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 99363?s=19

[Storm]

Ouch!
https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/121 ... 26978?s=19

[Monty]

+17 tomorrow. Warmest January day in history

[VanCitySouth]

Windstorm tomorrow has been watered down. 50-70km/hr with minimal rainfall. Notice that it will get very warm before noon with those southerlies. +14 to +17? Depends on how strong those SE/S winds get.

It's not gonna get to +17 man, even the mm5 with its typically over-aggressive warming only has some of the LM in the 52-56F shading. We might get a couple of +12 or +13 readings but that's still a far cry short of +17.

[Storm]

It's not gonna get to +17 man, even the mm5 with its typically over-aggressive warming only has some of the LM in the 52-56F shading. We might get a couple of +12 or +13 readings but that's still a far cry short of +17.

He is embarrassing himself just like his ICE BOX for the EAST.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Why visit California when California can visit you?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I’m confused. I thought I quoted the 850mb temps map which are shown in C

The wind chill factor map that Catnip posted was in ËšF and showed similar numeric ranges over Vancouver Island.

[Hawk]

I’ve got a bunch of blankets we aren’t using

[Hawk]

Windstorm tomorrow has been watered down. 50-70km/hr with minimal rainfall. Notice that it will get very warm before noon with those southerlies. +14 to +17? Depends on how strong those SE/S winds get.

Many cold episodes are initiated with a strong warm front, followed by an equally strong cold front. Dare we say Arctic maybe for once?

[wetcoast91]

It's not gonna get to +17 man, even the mm5 with its typically over-aggressive warming only has some of the LM in the 52-56F shading. We might get a couple of +12 or +13 readings but that's still a far cry short of +17.

Adiabatic warming associated with strong SE and S winds can really make magic happen at the surface. The same MM5 has low RH prior to onset of moisture. +17 is a stretch but I really believe we have a good shot of going into the mid teens tomorrow based off this mornings run.
Models tend to understimate temp anomolies in these setups.

[Catnip]

And so the model wars continue.

Gfs showing more consistency over the Euro though.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

And so the model wars continue.

Gfs showing more consistency over the Euro though.

Being a cheapskate, I don't have access to the model runs that those of you who subscribe to paid sites do. Are any runs of the ECMWF showing an arctic blast (or even cold-onshore-flow lowland snow)?