July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[stuffradio]

We're moving to stage 2 water restrictions on August 4.

[stuffradio]

Periods of rain and cooler temps on the 12Z GFS

gfs_T2ma_nwus_50.png

gfs_apcpn_nwus_64.png

[Forrest Gump]

We're moving to stage 2 water restrictions on August 4.

What stage website glitches are we in? Couldn't login 2 nights ago,maybe it was down, and still have to login even though I've never logged out.
Thanks. Hope you and the family are enjoying the summer so far. I'm sure you got your go-to playground or water park for the kiddos.

[Typeing3]

Cool day in southern Manitoba along the hwy 1 corridor today. Cloudy with a few showers around Brandon, dry but mostly cloudy in Portage la Prairie and a mix of sun and cloud in Winnipeg. Temps roughly between 16c and 22c.

First pic is just east of Brandon, second is in Portage la Prairie, and third is in Winnipeg.

Screenshot_2023-07-28-20-42-35.png

Screenshot_2023-07-28-20-41-46.png

Screenshot_2023-07-28-20-40-33.png

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

[Typeing3]

20230729021736-f094d636f68987b384d7118078e0555f5db7dd5e.png

[John]

The big difference between this summer so far and the past two summers is the lack of any significant prolonged heatwaves.

We have, of course, the extreme heat dome in June 2021 and then in July 2022, we had that 7 day period of low-mid 30's with high humidity.

So far this summer, all we've seen is upper 20's to low 30's with low-moderate humidity. I still have yet to hit or exceed my season high of 33.7C, which was recorded on May 14th. Even at that, humidity levels were fairly low during the May heatwave, which in my opinion, made the heat much more tolerable. I've experienced summer heat in both Kelowna and Orlando. Based on my experience, I can say without a doubt that 33C in Kelowna is much more tolerable that 33C in Orlando. The difference is that humidity levels are much lower in Kelowna than Orlando.

That said, the humidity in Florida does fuel some big thunderstorms, which is awesome. When we went to Orlando in 2017, I saw one of the best thunderstorms I've ever seen. It moved right over the Disney park we were at and was a very nice reward for tolerating the heat all day.

Thanks junior you must have fond memories of that trip

[John]

Periods of rain and cooler temps on the 12Z GFS

gfs_T2ma_nwus_50.png
gfs_apcpn_nwus_64.png

Hope so!

[Hawk]

It seems like the long dry stretch began around May 8th.There's been 67.1 mm at YXX from May 8th until now. That's 82 days if you include today.

For YVR, the dry spell began two days earlier, on the 6th. They've received just 40.9 mm from May 6th through today.

Those totals are ridiculous..especially YVR with 41mm??

[SouthSardiswx]

A tolerable summer despite being mostly above average.

I'm thinking it's been more of a climitizing summer temperature wise perhaps with no huge temperature swings other than the chilly showers earlier last week.
We reached a high of 27c @ the pond in south Sardis today.

[SouthSardiswx]

What stage website glitches are we in? Couldn't login 2 nights ago,maybe it was down, and still have to login even though I've never logged out.
Thanks. Hope you and the family are enjoying the summer so far. I'm sure you got your go-to playground or water park for the kiddos.

We've entered the twilight zone Skipper.
I think our buddy Stuffarooni took the summer off and A.I. is looking after the site.

[SouthSardiswx]

It's currently 21c @ the pond in south Sardis

FB_IMG_1690604453895.jpg

[AbbyJr]

Thanks junior you must have fond memories of that trip

Yes it was an awesome holiday.

[SouthSardiswx]

Cool day in southern Manitoba along the hwy 1 corridor today. Cloudy with a few showers around Brandon, dry but mostly cloudy in Portage la Prairie and a mix of sun and cloud in Winnipeg. Temps roughly between 16c and 22c.

First pic is just east of Brandon, second is in Portage la Prairie, and third is in Winnipeg.
Screenshot_2023-07-28-20-42-35.png
Screenshot_2023-07-28-20-41-46.png
Screenshot_2023-07-28-20-40-33.png

Quite the difference Tripper, from sunshine hot and windy to cloudy and cooler those clouds look thundery as well.

[Hawk]

Some varibale clouds Friday, and AGAIN convective buildup over the eastern valley ridges. This morning, lots of convective clouds over the metro Vanc area