July 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[John]

This is not summer...

[Leighbugs]

This weather sucks! Summer is short enough around here!

[Typeing3]

This weather sucks! Summer is short enough around here!

Exactly. I don't understand why people want rain year round when we get it pretty much all the time outside of July and August.

[AbbyJr]

Exactly. I don't understand why people want rain year round when we get it pretty much all the time outside of July and August.

Somehow I just have this gut that this summer won't be nearly as intense as last year, which featured several prolonged heat waves.

But this is contrary to the official summer forecast. So I guess time will tell whether my gut or the meteorologists are correct.

[Leighbugs]

I don't want smoke-fest either but I do think the media over-hyped things again with their headlines saying to prepare for endless smoke to be our new summer normal. It was 2 years in a row of our worst fire seasons ever. Not 10 years in a row, not even 3 years in a row. Two. And previous to that, the last summer I recall with a brief episode of smoke and fire was 2015. To call what we experienced "the new norm" like many news media was reporting is to me, just fear-mongering. Imagine if we had 2 years in a row of lots of destructive windstorms in fall, we wouldn't freak out and call it "the new normal." Neither would we say that with 2 cold and snowy winters in a row.

Of course not. Those 2 things don't fit the global warming narrative. No doubt, summers overall have been warmer as of late and climate change is happening but not every darn thing is climate change and not every extreme weather event is due to catastrophic global warming. I'm sick and tired of EVERYTHING being a doomsday prophecy and attributed to climate change.

So yeah. To me it was doubtful that we'd have THREE crazy fire seasons on record in a row when usually you don't just flip a switch into "new normal." New normal is a process. An average of commulative events. If even 5 out of a 10 year span produced record fire seasons, perhaps it's a trend. Simply having 2 crazy years in a row may just simply be an anomaly. A roll of the dice. It's not like 2003 didn't burn down a bunch of Kelowna. And I think 2009 had fires as well. I know because my grandparents live in Westbank and have been evacuated many times during many summers over the years due to fires. Ironically, they were not evacuated or put on any warnings or notice even once during the last 2 summers.

Anyway, that's my long rant. I'm bored. And grumpy because I should be outside having a nice evening on my back deck with birds chirping but alas it is only snails and mosquitos because this weather SUCKS. Back to my original point- it is July and this weather is CRAP.

[Monty]

Sunny and 23 this afternoon. Nice day. June was the 3rd warmest in the past 10 years here. It has been a decent start to summer over here.

[Monty]

As for the fire season, it was highly unlikely we would see a repeat of 2017, 2018. It’s just not possible for the forests to burn at that rate each year. Over 6 million acres in 2 years, Mother Nature was showing us she is the boss (after years of poor forest management). There is just no way things could continue to burn at that rate.

[Monty]

I bet we see a surge of heat later next week.

[Leighbugs]

Monty for Prime Minister! Haha
Seriously though, you ARE a consistent voice of reason on this forum and the "other" forum. Over there you'd think we are either gonna burn alive next week or endure the worst, coldest and wettest July on record (yet it's only July 3rd.)

[Forrest Gump]

I don't want smoke-fest either but I do think the media over-hyped things again with their headlines saying to prepare for endless smoke to be our new summer normal. It was 2 years in a row of our worst fire seasons ever. Not 10 years in a row, not even 3 years in a row. Two. And previous to that, the last summer I recall with a brief episode of smoke and fire was 2015. To call what we experienced "the new norm" like many news media was reporting is to me, just fear-mongering. Imagine if we had 2 years in a row of lots of destructive windstorms in fall, we wouldn't freak out and call it "the new normal." Neither would we say that with 2 cold and snowy winters in a row.

Of course not. Those 2 things don't fit the global warming narrative. No doubt, summers overall have been warmer as of late and climate change is happening but not every darn thing is climate change and not every extreme weather event is due to catastrophic global warming. I'm sick and tired of EVERYTHING being a doomsday prophecy and attributed to climate change.

So yeah. To me it was doubtful that we'd have THREE crazy fire seasons on record in a row when usually you don't just flip a switch into "new normal." New normal is a process. An average of commulative events. If even 5 out of a 10 year span produced record fire seasons, perhaps it's a trend. Simply having 2 crazy years in a row may just simply be an anomaly. A roll of the dice. It's not like 2003 didn't burn down a bunch of Kelowna. And I think 2009 had fires as well. I know because my grandparents live in Westbank and have been evacuated many times during many summers over the years due to fires. Ironically, they were not evacuated or put on any warnings or notice even once during the last 2 summers.

Anyway, that's my long rant. I'm bored. And grumpy because I should be outside having a nice evening on my back deck with birds chirping but alas it is only snails and mosquitos because this weather SUCKS. Back to my original point- it is July and this weather is CRAP.

Our Diva has spoken somebody needs a

[AbbyJr]

I don't want smoke-fest either but I do think the media over-hyped things again with their headlines saying to prepare for endless smoke to be our new summer normal. It was 2 years in a row of our worst fire seasons ever. Not 10 years in a row, not even 3 years in a row. Two. And previous to that, the last summer I recall with a brief episode of smoke and fire was 2015. To call what we experienced "the new norm" like many news media was reporting is to me, just fear-mongering. Imagine if we had 2 years in a row of lots of destructive windstorms in fall, we wouldn't freak out and call it "the new normal." Neither would we say that with 2 cold and snowy winters in a row.

Of course not. Those 2 things don't fit the global warming narrative. No doubt, summers overall have been warmer as of late and climate change is happening but not every darn thing is climate change and not every extreme weather event is due to catastrophic global warming. I'm sick and tired of EVERYTHING being a doomsday prophecy and attributed to climate change.

So yeah. To me it was doubtful that we'd have THREE crazy fire seasons on record in a row when usually you don't just flip a switch into "new normal." New normal is a process. An average of commulative events. If even 5 out of a 10 year span produced record fire seasons, perhaps it's a trend. Simply having 2 crazy years in a row may just simply be an anomaly. A roll of the dice. It's not like 2003 didn't burn down a bunch of Kelowna. And I think 2009 had fires as well. I know because my grandparents live in Westbank and have been evacuated many times during many summers over the years due to fires. Ironically, they were not evacuated or put on any warnings or notice even once during the last 2 summers.

Anyway, that's my long rant. I'm bored. And grumpy because I should be outside having a nice evening on my back deck with birds chirping but alas it is only snails and mosquitos because this weather SUCKS. Back to my original point- it is July and this weather is CRAP.

I fully agree with you 100%. I am also sick and tired of this human caused climate change doomsday non-sense. Its all a big fraud for a political agenda. Its fear mongering propaganda. What makes me even more mad about this, is that to even question the ridiculous doomsday climate emergency media propaganda, you are labeled a heretic. They conveniently changed the name from "Global Warming" to "Climate Change" so that they could demonize anybody who questions the man made fossil fuel C02 human caused climate emergency teaching and label them a denier. Its literally become a religion full of pseudo science.

[John]

I fully agree with you 100%. I am also sick and tired of this human caused climate change doomsday non-sense. Its all a big fraud for a political agenda. Its fear mongering propaganda. What makes me even more mad about this, is that to even question the ridiculous doomsday climate emergency media propaganda, you are labeled a heretic. The conveniently changed the name from "Global Warming" to "Climate Change" so that they could demonize anybody who questions the man made fossil fuel C02 human caused climate emergency teaching and label them a denier. Its literally become a religion full of pseudo science.

It’s not climate change it’s now a climate crisis!!
It is al so exaggerated by left wing media and politicians to take the last but of money out of the average persons pocket. IMO.

[Mattman]

Leighbugs and AbbyJr., your words resonate. Leighbugs mentioned the 2003 fire season. I think that’s an excellent microcosm of our wildfire situation the past couple years. I grew up in Kelowna in the 80’s & 90’s. There were of course lightning strikes in Okanagan Mountain Park that caused tiny forest fires at that time, but they were always extinguished. After decades and decades of fuel building up, it’s no surprise in retrospect what happened in 2003. Where the lightning strike occurred that caused the fire was at the perfect spot: rough terrain, and the topography allowed the winds to concurrently drive it south and east. The fuel buildup in our forests—although mentioned—is tut-tutted compared to the media talk of the “new normal.”

It seems Cliff Mass--a believer in harmful anthropogenic global warming--is fighting a losing game. He’s tried a number of times to put the brakes on the hysteria. I respect that. With the media, both hotter and colder weather and wetter and drier weather are evidence of catastrophic anthropogenic forces. The circular logic is astounding.

As an evil “denier” I have one question that doesn’t seem to be addressed by the catastrophic anthropogenic climate change crowd. A “denier” worth his/her salt acknowledges that the climate isn’t static. That is observable. So given that the climate isn’t static, can anthropogenic factors be teased apart from natural variability? (One can be an average joe and not be with “Big Oil” to ask that question. Nor is that a flat-earther question). Answers of “the models say…” are still conjecture. One will sarcastically and rightfully say, “Only 384 away” when a model spits out garbage. Yet a model of what our climate will be at the end of the century is held in high regard. Only what is observed will answer that question. And since natural factors are still poorly understood, how is my question to be answered? And this is where I depart from Cliff Mass. Talks of carbon taxes, “going green,” and general ways to make life more expensive are predicated on sleezy politics and questionable science. (Shouldn’t scientific studies—no matter the field of science-- be questioned anyway?)

On another note, yesterday the GFS was quite wet. The 06z is now back to real summer. Bring it on.

[Canada Goose]

Leighbugs, I totally agree with you!

By the way, heat SEEMS come back next week...

[Hawk]

Dont worry sun lovers. We will be ok. I can tell some of you are frustrated with lack of sun. But remember, too much sun brings forest fires, water restrictions and drought. Watch what you wish for butties
We will get our sun soon I'm sure.