September 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

A mixed bag of following winters in that list.

2004-05 is a winter I try to forget. Yet another failure in January on the level of 2011. We were on track for a 1971 repeat in both instances only for the rug to get pulled under us just a few days out.

Don't you mean January 2012? That year we were all set up for a record breaking snowstorm and it all fell apart a few days out.

[tyweather]

Upper reaches of the north shore mountains had up to 150mm on the weekend.

[SouthSardiswx]

5.0mm in my bucket since midnight so not much in South Sardis today.

[SouthSardiswx]

Btw welcome back Nito, hope you got your hard skin on this year your the snow/cold lovers punching bag. all in good fun tho.

[Typeing3]

Don't you mean January 2012? That year we were all set up for a record breaking snowstorm and it all fell apart a few days out.

Nope, I really meant January 2011. Models had seemingly locked in back to back to back snowstorms with a cold pool of arctic air in the interior but it all fell apart within three or four days of the event. Resulted in one of the biggest meltdowns in history on the american forums. Believe it was around the 10th thru 15th period. Ridge ended up getting undercut and led to a single small overrunning event followed by a week of mild SW flow.

The snowstorm in January 2012 still delivered but it just went south into Seattle. Some places in the southern puget sound saw over 50cm with that storm if my memory serves me correctly. Temps were around -5C with just some flurries up here in the lower mainland at the same time.

[Monty]

Nope, I really meant January 2011. Models had seemingly locked in back to back to back snowstorms with a cold pool of arctic air in the interior but it all fell apart within three or four days of the event. Resulted in one of the biggest meltdowns in history on the american forums. Believe it was around the 10th thru 15th period. Ridge ended up getting undercut and led to a single small overrunning event followed by a week of mild SW flow.

The snowstorm in January 2012 still delivered but it just went south into Seattle. Some places in the southern puget sound saw over 50cm with that storm if my memory serves me correctly. Temps were around -5C with just some flurries up here in the lower mainland at the same time.

The overrunning event came in on the night of January 11,2011. There was between 35-40cm of snow in Shawnigan Lake that night. But it brought with it much milder air and the storm track lifted north thru northern Vancouver Island. A few days prior the storm track was predicted to remain thru Washington state with cold air locked in place.

[Monty]

A mixed bag of following winters in that list.

2004-05 is a winter I try to forget. Yet another failure in January on the level of 2011. We were on track for a 1971 repeat in both instances only for the rug to get pulled under us just a few days out.

There was an epic snowstorm just a few miles to your west in January 2005. Close but no cigar for the mainland. It snowed for days over here

[Typeing3]

The overrunning event came in on the night of January 11,2011. There was between 35-40cm of snow in Shawnigan Lake that night. But it brought with it much milder air and the storm track lifted north thru northern Vancouver Island. A few days prior the storm track was predicted to remain thru Washington state with cold air locked in place.

Was much less snow on the mainland. About 10-20cm with that one. Then the next few days temps rose above 10C.

[Typeing3]

There was an epic snowstorm just a few miles to your west in January 2005. Close but no cigar for the mainland. It snowed for days over here

That's what added insult to injury for us over here. The Jan 2005 failure also made the Jan 2011 failure a tougher pill to swallow for us as well.

The whole January demise still just doesn't make sense to me. We've seen our climate is still capable to produce top winter months this century in December (ex. 2008) and February (ex. 2019) but January just seems to be getting worse and worse. The last Jan to record more than 1cm of snow at YVR was nearly eight years ago.

[Monty]

Was much less snow on the mainland. About 10-20cm with that one. Then the next few days temps rose above 10C.

Yea. That 35cm of snow was gone in the blink of an eye with warm southerly winds.

This feels like a year that something might happen in January but I’ve thought that before and it usually bites me in the ass.

[Catnip]

We shall see what happens. I have also posted their preliminary winter forecast in the winter thread.

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[Catnip]

Another map.

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[Canada Goose]

38.2 mm here yesterday.

151.6 mm for the month.

[Catnip]

38.2 mm here yesterday.

151.6 mm for the month.

Another big soaker on Sunday. I think there is a good chance for over 200mm this month.

[Typeing3]

Could be a cold end to the month and opening week of October.