January 2020 Arctic Blast Contest

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Typeing3
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January 2020 Arctic Blast Contest

Post by Typeing3 » Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:55 pm

Forecast contest! Predict the low/highs for Vancouver (YVR), Abbotsford (YXX) and Victoria (YYJ). Monday thru Thursday. Predictions due 11:59pm Saturday. Tiebreaker will be to predict the coldest place and temp in the province.

Just to make things simple, your predictions should look like this (morning lows first, then aft highs)...

YVR
Monday: -6C/-2C
Tuesday: -10C/-5C
etc.

YXX
Monday: -7C/-4C
etc.

YYJ
Monday: -4C/-1C
etc.
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Re: January 2020 Arctic Blast Contest

Post by Typeing3 » Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:37 pm

YVR
Monday: -8C/-3C
Tuesday: -11C/-4C
Wednesday: -9C/-3C
Thursday: -7C/-2C

YXX
Monday: -11C/-8C
Tuesday: -13C/-8C
Wednesday: -11C/-5C
Thursday: -9C/-4C

YYJ
Monday: -5C/-1C
Tuesday: -8C/-3C
Wednesday: -6C/-2C
Thursday: -5C/1C

Coldest in BC: Puntzi Mountain, -40C
Last edited by Typeing3 on Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: January 2020 Arctic Blast Contest

Post by Canuck » Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:06 pm

I think we should just stick to YVR to keep it simpler :)

YVR
Monday: -9C/-5C
Tuesday: -11C/-4C
Wednesday: -8C/-3C
Thursday: -5C/-2C
Last edited by Canuck on Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: January 2020 Arctic Blast Contest

Post by Esquimalt39 » Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:07 pm

YVR:

Monday: -7/-3
Tuesday: -12/-6
Wednesday: -9/-4
Thursday: -6/-3

YYJ:

Monday: -6/-1
Tuesday: -11/-5
Wednesday: -8/-5
Thursday: -4/-2
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Re: January 2020 Arctic Blast Contest

Post by OilerNut » Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:41 pm

YVR
Monday: -5C/0C
Tuesday: -10C/-5C
Wednesday: -8C/-1C
Thursday: -5C/0C

YXX
Monday: -10C/-3C
Tuesday: -15C/-8C
Wednesday: -13C/-4C
Thursday: -10C/-3C
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Re: January 2020 Arctic Blast Contest

Post by Glacier » Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:07 pm

Typeing3 wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:37 pm

Coldest in BC: Puntzi Mountain, -42C
Environment Canada is really expecting the cold to be east of the Chilcotin - Bulkley - Nechako area. Burns Lake is forecast to be 10 degrees warmer than Prince George for example, even though it's almost always colder.

For using statistics if you want, here is a list coldest spot winners in BC ONLY when the extreme low is -30 or below:

2018 (sorry, I haven't done 2019 yet):

Fort Nelson = 5 times
Puntzi = 4
Burns Lake = 4
Dawson Creek = 3
Dease Lake = 2
Chetwynd = 2
MacKenzie = 1
Fort St. James = 1
Everyone else = 0

2017:
Dease Lake = 12
Fort Nelson = 4
Yoho National Park = 3
Puntzi = 3
Blue River =3
Dawson Creek = 2
MacKenzie = 1
Clinton =1
Chetwynd = 1
Everyone Else = 0

2016:
Puntzi = 9
Dease Lake = 4
Yoho = 1
Dawson Creek = 1
Chetwynd = 1
Everyone else = 0

2015:
Dease Lake = 5
Fort Nelson = 3
Puntzi =1
Dawson Creek = 1
Everyone else = 0
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Re: January 2020 Arctic Blast Contest

Post by Flakey » Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:26 pm

YVR
Monday: -13C/-5C
Tuesday: -11C/-6C
Wednesday: -8C/-4C
Thursday: -6C/-3C

YXX
Monday: -15C/-8C
Tuesday: -12C/-10C
Wednesday: -9C/-6C
Thursday: -8C/-4C

YYJ
Monday: -9C/-2C
Tuesday: -8C/-4C
Wednesday: -6C/-2C
Thursday: -4C/0C
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Re: January 2020 Arctic Blast Contest

Post by Roberts Creeker » Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:03 pm

YVR
Monday: -9C/-2C
Tuesday: -13C/-4C
Wednesday: -9C/-3C
Thursday: -3C/0C

YHS
Monday: -10C/-5C
Tuesday: -14C/-5C
Wednesday: -10C/-2C
Thursday: -5C/0C

Coldest in BC: ? not too worried about needing a tie breaker
Go team RAIN!!! :drizzle: A winner every week!
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Re: January 2020 Arctic Blast Contest

Post by Abby_wx » Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:50 pm

I had some numbers in my head, but I might just wait and re-assess the situation in 24 hours. The models trends are too iffy at the moment.
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January 2020 Cold Snap Stats

Date/Lo/Hi/Snowfall(cm)
12/-7.4/3.9/2.0
13/-10.3/-7.3/1.0
14/-11.7/-9.7/2.0
15/-12.4/-5.1/8.0
16/-8.4/-4.1/3.4
17/-10.2/-1.9/trace
18/-3.3/1.1/4.0
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Re: January 2020 Arctic Blast Contest

Post by Glacier » Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:29 pm

I'm in a hotel room in Penticton, so haven't had time to check the forecasts... here is a quick stab in the dark...

YVR
Monday: -5C/-1C
Tuesday: -10C/-2C
Wednesday: -8C/-2C
Thursday: -5C/-1C

YXX
Monday: -8C/-3C
Tuesday: -12C/-5C
Wednesday: -10C/-5C
Thursday: -7C/-3C

YYJ
Monday: -3C/1C
Tuesday: -8C/-3C
Wednesday: -6C/-2C
Thursday: -4C/0C

Coldest in BC: Quesnel, -41C
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Re: January 2020 Arctic Blast Contest

Post by Bonovox » Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:51 pm

YVR
Monday: -6C/-3C
Tuesday: -11C/-4C
Wednesday: -10C/-3C
Thursday: -4C/0C

YXX
Monday: -9C/-6C
Tuesday: -13C/-6C
Wednesday: -12C/-5C
Thursday: -6C/-2C

YYJ
Monday: -4C/-2C
Tuesday: -9C/-2C
Wednesday: -6C/-1C
Thursday: -3C/2C
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Re: January 2020 Arctic Blast Contest

Post by Slytyguy » Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:16 pm

YVR
Monday: -2C/-1
Tuesday: -10/-4C
Wednesday: -8c/-2c
Thursday: -6C/0

YXX
Monday: -10C/-8C
Tuesday: -14C/-9C
Wednesday: -11/-7C
Thursday: -8C/-2c

YYJ
Monday: -5C/+2c
Tuesday: -9/-3c
Wednesday: -4/-2C
Thursday: -5C/2c
-Sardis #greatdaytobeaduck
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Re: January 2020 Arctic Blast Contest

Post by VanCitySouth » Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:05 pm

YVR
M: -8/-4
T: -12/-5
W: -10/-3
R: -6/-2

YXX
M: -6/-6
T: -14/-8
W: -11/-5
R: -9/-4

YYJ:
M: -3/0
T: -10/-1
W: -7/0
R: -5/0
2019-20 snow totals:
December: splats
January: 39 cm
February: 8 cm
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Re: January 2020 Arctic Blast Contest

Post by Forrest Gump » Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:06 pm

YVR
Monday: -6C/-2C
Tuesday: -11C/-6C
Wednesday: -8C/-5C
Thursday: -4C/-1C

YXX
Monday: -9C/-3C
Tuesday: -13C/-8C
Wednesday: -10C/-7C
Thursday: -6C/-3C

YYJ
Monday: -5C/-1C
Tuesday: -9C/-4C
Wednesday: -7C/-3C
Thursday: -3C/0C
Got to kick at the darkness 'til it bleeds daylight
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Re: January 2020 Arctic Blast Contest

Post by Typeing3 » Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:19 pm

Environment Canada

YVR
Monday: -6C/-2C
Tuesday: -11C/-4C
Wednesday: -8C/-3C
Thursday: -5C/1C

YXX
Monday: -6C/-6C
Tuesday: -12C/-4C
Wednesday: -8C/-1C
Thursday: -6C/-1C

YYJ
Monday: -3C/1C
Tuesday: -6C/-2C
Wednesday: -5C/0C
Thursday: -3C/1C
:typing: :type3:
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