Fake Climate Records

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Fake Climate Records

Post by Glacier » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:00 am

Here is a thread for discussing likely climate errors.

I'll go first. Castlegar supposedly had a humidex of 53.4 on 1961-07-14 15:00:00 PDT.

I know it can be humid and hot in the Kootenays, but this just seems really unlikely! That would be a Canadian record. We are talking a dew point of 29.4, which would be a Canadian record as well. The temperature was 35.6C.

The highest dew point outside of that summer was on June 6, 1967 at 23.9. Even that value seems suspiciously high. The highest recorded since 1967 was 21.6, set on August 1, 1998.

So what was the highest humidex ever recorded at Castlegar? It would be 44, set July 31, 2009 (dew point was 18.6 and the temperature was actually hot at 37.4C).

This is inline with other southern interior hot spots:
- Trail = 41 (set in July 2006 and July 2013)
- Penticton = 43 (set July 2nd, 2013), with dew point at 19.1 and temperature at 36.2C
- Vernon = 42 (set June 29, 2008), with dew point at 14.1 and temperature at 38.5C
- Salmon Arm = 45 (set July 2, 2013)
- Kamloops = 42 (set July 24, 1994), with dew point at 13.2 and temperature at 38.4C
- Ashcroft = 41 (set July 1, 2013), with a dew point of 10.7 and a temperature of 39.1C
- Osoyoos = 46 (set in both 1998 and 2004). The most recent on June 22, 2004 had a dew point of 16.2 and a temperature of 40.9.
- Lytton = 45 (set in 2006), dew point at 14.0 and temperature at 41.9
- Kelowna = 43, set July 22, 1971 (34.4C with dew point of 21.7 and humidity of 48%).
- Lillooet = 39, set several times since records began in 2013. One example is a temperature of 40.5 and a dew point of 0.9 and a relative humidity of 9%!

- Nakusp = 44, set July 5, 2007, dew point of 19.4, temperature of 37.2
- Nelson = 42, set 2006 and 2007
- Creston = 47, set July 12, 2002 (BC record?)

OTHER LOCATIONS:
- Puntzi Mountain 35, set in 1997, 1998, and 2006. (Temperature 33 to 34.7 with the dew point 7.5 to 12.2)

NOTES:
- The official Kamloops record of 47 is also bunk. In 1957 the temperature was 31.1C and the dew point was 28.3C? In Kamloops? No way in heck!
- Ashcroft, Lillooet, and Puntzi Mountain are the only places in Canada I can find where the extreme max temperature is HIGHER than the extreme high humidex!
- The Kelowna record Humidex is also fake in my view. The data from 1964-65 is crazy. 33 degrees with 68% humidity, and a humidex of 46? I don't think so!
Last edited by Glacier on Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:08 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Fake Climate Records

Post by Glacier » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:41 pm

Pemberton's extreme humidex is also fake. The 2004 data is completely fake, and in fact, we can see this because an error occurs when the humidity is well over 100%. The 52 humidex from 2004 is wrong. The most humid it has been there is 46, set on July 27, 1998. Temperature 39.8 and dew point 17.9.

Abbotsford's record of 46 is also suspect. Set a couple days before Castlegar's fake value. I'm more included to trust the 44 set on July 21, 2006.
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Re: Fake Climate Records

Post by Abby_wx » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:38 pm

Back in the days of wet bulb thermometers and manual measurements... what could go wrong? :lol:
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January 2020 Cold Snap Stats

Date/Lo/Hi/Snowfall(cm)
12/-7.4/3.9/2.0
13/-10.3/-7.3/1.0
14/-11.7/-9.7/2.0
15/-12.4/-5.1/8.0
16/-8.4/-4.1/3.4
17/-10.2/-1.9/trace
18/-3.3/1.1/4.0
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Re: Fake Climate Records

Post by Glacier » Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:48 am

Abby_wx wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:38 pm
Back in the days of wet bulb thermometers and manual measurements... what could go wrong? :lol:
LOL... although, I must say that automated precipitation recording is far less reliable than manual. FOR EXAMPLE: Puntzi Mountain (one of the driest places in BC) has supposedly had precipitation for like 150 days in a row now!... https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... ionID=8092
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Re: Fake Climate Records

Post by Abby_wx » Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:07 am

Glacier wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:48 am
LOL... although, I must say that automated precipitation recording is far less reliable than manual. FOR EXAMPLE: Puntzi Mountain (one of the driest places in BC) has supposedly had precipitation for like 150 days in a row now!... https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... ionID=8092
Yup, there's not a lot that can go wrong with a manual rain gauge... no moving parts or electricity, no calibration needed, no math or programming required. Any problems are likely to be caught far more quickly because someone is actually checking the gauge regularly.

Dew point on the other hand is hard to measure at the best of times. Correct use of a wet bulb thermometer is critical, and there is some math required. The more it can be automated, the less room for error.
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January 2020 Cold Snap Stats

Date/Lo/Hi/Snowfall(cm)
12/-7.4/3.9/2.0
13/-10.3/-7.3/1.0
14/-11.7/-9.7/2.0
15/-12.4/-5.1/8.0
16/-8.4/-4.1/3.4
17/-10.2/-1.9/trace
18/-3.3/1.1/4.0
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Re: Fake Climate Records

Post by Glacier » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:15 pm

The warmest daily low I can find in BC is a 29.4C set at KAMLOOPS CDA on July 13th, 1955. This is CLEARLY an error because the nearby airport shows nothing out of the ordinary that night...
mistakekamloops.png
EDIT: The warmest legitimate values I can find in BC are at Lillooet, Kamloops (the airport, although this station data is merged with the "Kamloops" station), Penticton, Shalalth, and Ashcroft.

Stations NOT making the cut: Osoyoos, Oliver, Spences Bridge, and Lytton.
highestmins.png
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Re: Fake Climate Records

Post by Canada Goose » Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:36 pm

Glacier wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:15 pm
EDIT: The warmest legitimate values I can find in BC are at Lillooet, Kamloops (the airport, although this station data is merged with the "Kamloops" station), Penticton, Shalalth, and Ashcroft.

Stations NOT making the cut: Osoyoos, Oliver, Spences Bridge, and Lytton.
highestmins.png
There's a problem with the data of Lillooet in August 2012. I have a Tmin of 19.5C.

Capture d’écran 2020-03-09 à 16.31.22.jpg

The same for Penticton: it's an error.

Capture d’écran 2020-03-09 à 16.37.46.jpg

The same in Kamloops in 2004...

Capture d’écran 2020-03-09 à 16.41.23.jpg

With GarbageEC, you need to control each data...
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Re: Fake Climate Records

Post by Glacier » Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:12 pm

Nice work.

I only investigated the first value. I wonder how far down the list I'd have to get before hitting a real one?
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Re: Fake Climate Records

Post by Glacier » Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:59 am

Canada Goose wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:36 pm
There's a problem with the data of Lillooet in August 2012. I have a Tmin of 19.5C.
Weird, i downloaded it from another site, which supposedly scraped it off of EC. Maybe EC updated that one. Anyway, the other Lillooet records from 1924 are probably fake as well. One night above 24C, okay, but three, and at different times of the month? I don't think so! https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1924

So that leaves us with Shalalth (near Lillooet) and Ashcroft. Shalalth's numbers seem very high in 1998. 26C while it's 22C in Lillooet and Lillooet and 23C in Spences Bridge? We are talking days well in excess of 40C in Lillooet during one of the hottest months on record, so possible I guess. It might be on a hillside so maybe the nighest are very warm, but still, nights get much cooler as you head west from Lillooet as a rule (see how cold Pemberton or Gates Station is at night). I'll give a 55% chance of being an actual value.

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... 98&Month=7#

July 1979 is also in a similar boat. A very warm 40C day followed by an extremely warm night (or do I have that backwards). Anyway, the year before there were a massive number of days over 20, including one at 25, so maybe. At first I was going to give this one the odds of 10% of actually happening since Lillooet, Lytton, etc. were not even 20 that day, and then 20 the next or not even, but then I notice that Pemerton really shot up that day, going from 12 (+/-) the other days to 19 that day, which is probably record warm for Pemberton, so maybe this actually did happen. I'll say the odds are 75% of it actually happening.

The station was closed in 2004.

Finally, that brings us to Ashcroft, which I'm over 90% sure is a legitimate record because the hourly data backs it up.
https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=2013

It's interesting that many of the other stations you'd expect to be over 20 were not like Kamloops and Lillooet, and in fact, the night before was warmer. That goes to show you how much the weather can change from one location to another.

With that in mind, I'm willing to let the Shalalth temperatures stand as the all time records (unless I find another location).
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Re: Fake Climate Records

Post by Glacier » Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:53 pm

I'm inclined to say the 1924 temperatures in Lillooet are legit because a lot of other places had very warm nights that month.

Here is my list so far of legitimate records (I have not verified all of them nor have I done a complete search). Notice that the amazingly warm night in September 2017 at Malahat made the list).
WARMESTNIGHTSINBC.png
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Re: Fake Climate Records

Post by Glacier » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:10 pm

One of the most fake records of all time is Kamloops in January and February 1895. My belief is that this data is actually supposed to be Bella Coola (or some such place). It's wetter and slightly cooler than Agassiz. I'm sorry, but Kamloops is never going to have 150 mm of rain in January, nor is it ever going to be that warm.
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