Sardisbcwx wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:00 pm
The numbers are lagging though the totals we see from today are from the state of the province 2 weeks ago so it's misleading really. If the number of cases started dropping 2 weeks ago then 2 weeks from now should be even more as hopefully ppl have listened about shelter in place and social distancing. I read an article published in the U.K. that says a vaccine could be ready as soon as Sept.
I always take those articles with a huge grain of salt... I can't count how many similar ones I've read.
I just worry there's a lot of overconfidence in there being a vaccine anytime soon... IMO it's very unlikely to be less than 12 months away, and perhaps never if we compare to other coronaviruses. Most of us might have caught the virus and developed herd immunity before a vaccine ever comes on market.
Abby_wx wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:18 pm
I always take those articles with a huge grain of salt... I can't count how many similar ones I've read.
I just worry there's a lot of overconfidence in there being a vaccine anytime soon... IMO it's very unlikely to be less than 12 months away, and perhaps never if we compare to other coronaviruses. Most of us might have caught the virus and developed herd immunity before a vaccine ever comes on market.
All good points Abby Sr. different times though compared to the Spanish flu ppl nowadays travel and need to get from place to place how long before ppl get frustrated being stuck inside. I had a cold about 4 weeks ago first cold in over 5 years. How do I know if I had the mild version I'll never know.
Last edited by SouthSardiswx on Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Join us next season Cannot's are Pacific Division Champs! Wrinkle Rockers: 43cm South Sardines: 57cm
CYCW station https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
Sardisbcwx wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:28 pm
All good points Abby Sr. different times though compared to the Spanish flu ppl nowadays travel and need to get from place to place how long before ppl get frustrated being stuck inside.
I think it's inevitable that people get frustrated being stuck at home... expect the restrictions to relax this summer, otherwise people are going to just ignore them. No one is going to sit at home during our only few months of nice weather.
Abby_wx wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:29 pm
I think it's inevitable that people get frustrated being stuck at home... expect the restrictions to relax this summer, otherwise people are going to just ignore them. No one is going to sit at home during our only few months of nice weather.
Good points again but everything is shuttered it's going to be a depressing summer indeed, I have my first set of holiday's come the first week in July, I'm not confident we can get away.
Join us next season Cannot's are Pacific Division Champs! Wrinkle Rockers: 43cm South Sardines: 57cm
CYCW station https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
Abby_wx wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:29 pm
I think it's inevitable that people get frustrated being stuck at home... expect the restrictions to relax this summer, otherwise people are going to just ignore them. No one is going to sit at home during our only few months of nice weather.
Exactly. If BC Parks remain closed this summer, it would be a huge loss for tourism economy. It's unimaginable.
I think there's a solid chance this will be the driest April on record. And this on the heels of another dry March we just had! Burke guage has a miniscule 0.8mm so far this month! 2004 and 2016 were other notable warm and dry Aprils. 2016 was a dry Spring across the West and that was the year of the Fort McMurray fire in May 2016. The dry spring of 2015 caused early fire season and a severe smoke show in SW BC in June.
Dry April's- YVR Avg: 88.5 mm
1998- 19.3mm ( was followed with a wet May.)
2004- 15.0mm (driest April at YVR, was followed with a slightly above average May.)
2015- 51.4mm (drought year but that was due to the following bone dry months of May, June, July 2015 and no snowpack from previous Winter).
2016- 24.2mm ( this was also the warmest April on record for YVR)
2020- 2.4mm currently. Yowzers!!
Will they get 12.7mm before months end? Not likely , looking at the models.
Coquitlam79 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 10:49 am
I think there's a solid chance this will be the driest April on record. And this on the heels of another dry March we just had! Burke guage has a miniscule 0.8mm so far this month! 2004 and 2016 were other notable warm and dry Aprils. 2016 was a dry Spring across the West and that was the year of the Fort McMurray fire in May 2016. The dry spring of 2015 caused early fire season and a severe smoke show in SW BC in June.
Dry April's- YVR Avg: 88.5 mm
1998- 19.3mm ( was followed with a wet May.)
2004- 15.0mm (driest April at YVR, was followed with a slightly above average May.)
2015- 51.4mm (drought year but that was due to the following bone dry months of May, June, July 2015 and no snowpack from previous Winter).
2016- 24.2mm ( this was also the warmest April on record for YVR)
2020- 2.4mm currently. Yowzers!!
Will they get 12.7mm before months end? Not likely , looking at the models.
I wouldn't call this past March "dry". The Burke mountain gauge recorded 200mm.
And don't forget...January was insanely wet. Nearly 700mm at the same location. The dry April is just balancing things out.
Most of that rain came down in quick deluges. YVR only received 40mm in March. That's a huge discrepancy probably due to sw flow in one or two systems being greatly enhanced up against the south facing slopes (Burke mtn). So things may be good up on the mountains but 42mm in 50 plus days at YVR is way below normal. Let's see what the rest of the spring brings because there's no danger yet unless May is dry like 2015, 2018 and last year. Than that's a different story and drought talk is warranted although there's enough water it would be a fire danger problem more likely.
Coquitlam79 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:36 pm
Most of that rain came down in quick deluges. YVR only received 40mm in March. That's a huge discrepancy probably due to sw flow in one or two systems being greatly enhanced up against the south facing slopes (Burke mtn). So things may be good up on the mountains but 42mm in 50 plus days at YVR is way below normal. Let's see what the rest of the spring brings because there's no danger yet unless May is dry like 2015, 2018 and last year. Than that's a different story and drought talk is warranted although there's enough water it would be a fire danger problem more likely.
I read an article published in the U.K. that says a vaccine could be ready as soon as Sept.
Cannot's are Pacific Division Champs!
Wrinkle Rockers: 43cm 
South Sardines: 57cm 
