November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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wetcoast91
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Storm wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 7:10 am By that time whatever fell it fell. ALSO models always overdone Southerly. :thumbup:
12Z GFS running a smidge warmer aloft.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 7:53 am 12Z GFS running a smidge warmer aloft.
:thumbup:
sn10_acc.us_nw.png
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 7:53 am 12Z GFS running a smidge warmer aloft.
Well I guess it's time for an AF style meltdown
2023-24 season stats:
Climo :cancel: 81 to 44 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 39.0 cm + 3 traces
Peak depth: 28.0 cm (Jan 17)
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

VanCitySouth wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 7:58 am Well I guess it's time for an AF style meltdown
Don't listen to him. Master propagandist
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Storm wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 7:58 am :thumbup:
sn10_acc.us_nw.png
Warm nose, terrain bleed, phantom snow, southerlies break through, +12

Am I missing anything Nito?
2023-24 season stats:
Climo :cancel: 81 to 44 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 39.0 cm + 3 traces
Peak depth: 28.0 cm (Jan 17)
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Storm wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 8:00 am Don't listen to him. Master propagandist
Stormers we gotta admit past 24 hours hasn't been kind. We're running out of time and it's moving the wrong way.
2023-24 season stats:
Climo :cancel: 81 to 44 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 39.0 cm + 3 traces
Peak depth: 28.0 cm (Jan 17)
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Alphonso!! :alert: :alert: :alert:
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

PortKells wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 8:03 am Alphonso!! :alert: :alert: :alert:
Almost had a heart attack. :shock:
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Radar »

tyweather wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 7:43 am Yesterday's system was a disappointment. I thought it was supposed to snow on the local mountains but it hardly did. 2cm new at Cypress
Just wait. The next one is likely a bigger disappointment. Surrey goes from 20cm to 4cm and rain Wednesday and Thursday and then no arctic air and melt down.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

VanCitySouth wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 8:00 am Stormers we gotta admit past 24 hours hasn't been kind. We're running out of time and it's moving the wrong way.
Yeah, sure. If you would of tell me a week ago that we are tracking real possibility of snow two days out, I would of take any chance of snow. The models can predict so much, when it comes to storm intensity, track, temperature and etc. they are close not perfect.

Also some people who are reading this forum they don't understand maps and just from our comments might think this is a complete BUST.

One thing we know, it will most definitely snow, how much remainstobe seen, when (if) transition to rain is still unknown.

Go 🇨🇦
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Another way to look at it.
2m temp.
gfs-vancouver-ca-49n-123.png
Snow. Every single member has snow for us. And this is for YVR.
gfs-vancouver-ca-49n-123-1.png
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by arbetrader »

Today marks 37 years that I remember Rogers Cablevision weather station in Abbotsford reporting a current air temperature in Abbotsford of -18C. It was the year I became interested in weather... Nice semi-protracted arctic blast for our area. We lost power for a number of days - had to cook food on our wood stove (which we literally just had installed in our new home earlier that year)... Also, because we had electric heat, this meant we literally had no heat, aside from the wood stove. It heated the entire 3000sq ft home. To now, it's still the coldest temp I can ever remember in Abbotsford (however I do believe Dec 2021 is pretty much on par at least for temps)... Fun memories!
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

ICON is snowier as well. Reverse trends?
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Mattman »

Something curious to watch around Dec 6-7. The GEM was flirting with this idea on Wednesday. The 00Z EURO and to a lesser extent the 12z GFS draw a portion of that polar lobe over the Prairies towards us. Curious to see subsequent runs. I've noticed the GFS is comparatively progressive vs. the EURO, but it still managed to retrograde part of that lobe. (A more seasoned model rider would know if there's a progressive bias in the GFS or a blocking bias in the EURO). I guess that lobe is what the weenies out east were thinking it was coming to them a week or so ago.

Lastly, my emotions lean towards the GFS for Wednesday, but my Vulcan side says Euro is king.
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