July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
Post Reply
John
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 2518
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:52 am
Location: Valley
Has thanked: 3699 times
Been thanked: 4027 times

Re: July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

PortKells wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:39 am The mosquitos are ruthless over here. Tons of places for them to breed here on the farm.
Haven’t really noticed yet but I am sure once it warms up there will be lots!
User avatar
SouthSardiswx
Donator
Donator
Posts: 18665
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 pm
Location: Chilliwack (South Sardis)
Has thanked: 50798 times
Been thanked: 15592 times

Re: July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

John wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:12 pm:wave: enjoy
Thanks John, Sunday was nice for a walk on the rotary trail in Chilliwack river was running fast.
The 6th annual alzheimer's snowfall contest
:team: Canoodles record: 44-18-8
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 43cm :wtf:
:hockey: South Sardines: 57cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
Michael1
Weather Nut
Weather Nut
Posts: 525
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 6:49 pm
Location: Nanoose
Elevation: 120 ft.
Has thanked: 555 times
Been thanked: 1126 times

Re: July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Michael1 »

While we wait for summer, let's talk about:
20200707.sstOutlooks_nino34.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Typeing3
Weather Psycho
Weather Psycho
Posts: 12090
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:02 pm
Location: Coquitlam
Elevation: 25M./80Ft.
Has thanked: 20133 times
Been thanked: 22586 times

Re: July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Michael1 wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:53 pm While we wait for summer, let's talk about:
20200707.sstOutlooks_nino34.png
Hopefully that mean continues to dip as we move closer to winter. We haven't had a moderate/strong Nina in nearly a decade.

Though maybe it's in the sweet spot right now...weak Nina/low solar combo does seem to produce the best winters for our region.
:typing: :type3:
East Coquitlam
Elevation 25M (80Ft)
#MrJanuary :geek: 8-)
User avatar
Glacier
Model Rider
Model Rider
Posts: 1630
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:21 pm
Location: Vernon
Elevation: 545m/1788 ft
Has thanked: 400 times
Been thanked: 3653 times

Re: July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Glacier »

A bit wet here in the Okanagan... we rode the KVR from Myra Canyon (near Kelowna) to Penticton and encountered 19 lakes like this on the trail...
107271427_10158089121071628_9035957447077530392_n.jpg
We did find some nice views though!
106016847_10158085183246628_482030674943211848_n.jpg
106506744_10158085184211628_1454678750033214357_n.jpg
106454702_10158085186846628_4713083735869176619_n.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
SouthSardiswx
Donator
Donator
Posts: 18665
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 pm
Location: Chilliwack (South Sardis)
Has thanked: 50798 times
Been thanked: 15592 times

Re: July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Awesome snaps there iceburg man, some strange summer so far high water levels for July including the Vedder I noticed is higher than at any point earlier this spring. This chilly weather is good for Ms. Creeker to watch Christmas in July on the W network. :thumbup:
The 6th annual alzheimer's snowfall contest
:team: Canoodles record: 44-18-8
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 43cm :wtf:
:hockey: South Sardines: 57cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
User avatar
Glacier
Model Rider
Model Rider
Posts: 1630
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:21 pm
Location: Vernon
Elevation: 545m/1788 ft
Has thanked: 400 times
Been thanked: 3653 times

Re: July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Glacier »

Sardisbcwx wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:36 pm Awesome snaps there iceburg man, some strange summer so far high water levels for July including the Vedder I noticed is higher than at any point earlier this spring. This chilly weather is good for Ms. Creeker to watch Christmas in July on the W network. :thumbup:
Here is a graph showing the peak flow rates of the Fraser River at Hope. 10th highest in the past 100 years...
FRASER2020FLOWS6.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Forrest Gump
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4321
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:11 pm
Location: South Surrey/White Rock
Elevation: 377 Ft. or 115 M
Has thanked: 12242 times
Been thanked: 7903 times

Re: July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Forrest Gump »

Michael1 wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:53 pm While we wait for summer, let's talk about:
20200707.sstOutlooks_nino34.png
Nice looking leech pattern , it should work well for Monty up at Watch lake.
Gumperoni 43cm
Sardineski 47cm
User avatar
BhamMe
Cloud Watcher
Cloud Watcher
Posts: 96
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2019 3:29 pm
Location: Bellingham
Elevation: 100 ft
Has thanked: 66 times
Been thanked: 178 times

Re: July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by BhamMe »

Michael1 wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:53 pm While we wait for summer, let's talk about:
20200707.sstOutlooks_nino34.png
I'm liking this. All that's needed is for the border to open so I can get up to Canada and do some Okanogan skiing in November and December. How fun would it be to be able to ski on opening weekend for once???!!!
John
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 2518
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:52 am
Location: Valley
Has thanked: 3699 times
Been thanked: 4027 times

Re: July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

BhamMe wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:23 am I'm liking this. All that's needed is for the border to open so I can get up to Canada and do some Okanogan skiing in November and December. How fun would it be to be able to ski on opening weekend for once???!!!
But who knows when that will happen? We would love to have you back but when the flu season starts they will put us all back in an lockdown and keep borders closed.

By the way who is paying for Trudeau 340+ billion dollar deficit???
User avatar
Roberts Creeker
Donator
Donator
Posts: 3774
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:17 pm
Location: Upper Roberts Creek
Elevation: 162 M./532 ft.
Has thanked: 21382 times
Been thanked: 6961 times

Re: July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Sardisbcwx wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:36 pm Awesome snaps there iceburg man, some strange summer so far high water levels for July including the Vedder I noticed is higher than at any point earlier this spring. This chilly weather is good for Ms. Creeker to watch Christmas in July on the W network. :thumbup:
Sardine! How did you know :lol: :lol: ...I think it was July 3 (might have been 2) I gave up and started a fire in the wood stove and had a cozy night, warm fire and a Christmas movie, should have made popcorn!
User avatar
SouthSardiswx
Donator
Donator
Posts: 18665
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 pm
Location: Chilliwack (South Sardis)
Has thanked: 50798 times
Been thanked: 15592 times

Re: July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

John wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:08 pm But who knows when that will happen? We would love to have you back but when the flu season starts they will put us all back in an lockdown and keep borders closed.

By the way who is paying for Trudeau 340+ billion dollar deficit???
:lol: those of us still working John. :crazy:
The 6th annual alzheimer's snowfall contest
:team: Canoodles record: 44-18-8
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 43cm :wtf:
:hockey: South Sardines: 57cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
User avatar
Typeing3
Weather Psycho
Weather Psycho
Posts: 12090
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:02 pm
Location: Coquitlam
Elevation: 25M./80Ft.
Has thanked: 20133 times
Been thanked: 22586 times

Re: July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Looks like Sunday could be our last shot at any meaningful rain thru at least late month.

12z GFS shows a classic summer pattern setting up next week...temps in the low to mid 20s with a few dry NW fronts skirting through our area.
:typing: :type3:
East Coquitlam
Elevation 25M (80Ft)
#MrJanuary :geek: 8-)
User avatar
BhamMe
Cloud Watcher
Cloud Watcher
Posts: 96
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2019 3:29 pm
Location: Bellingham
Elevation: 100 ft
Has thanked: 66 times
Been thanked: 178 times

Re: July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by BhamMe »

NOAA US just issued a La Nina Watch.

ENSO is still in neutral, and likely to continue so through the summer. However, the 50-55% chance of La Niña developing in the fall and lasting through winter means NOAA has hoisted a La Niña Watch.

The current forecast, a 50-55% chance of La Niña, is not a very strong probability. There is still about a 40-45% chance that neutral conditions will remain through the fall and winter, and a smaller but non-zero chance of El Niño—around 5-10%.

Image

These probabilities reflect forecasters’ thinking about current conditions in the tropical Pacific and the computer model guidance. For the past few months, many of the dynamical computer models have been pointing to cooler-than-average conditions on the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These models start from observed ocean and atmosphere conditions and apply physical equations to create a picture of potential future conditions. We consider many different models, and run them many times, to generate a range of potential outcomes that is as complete as possible.

Right now, most of these models predict that sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region will be more than 0.5°C cooler than the long-term average—the La Niña threshold—in the fall and winter, although there is still a wide range of potential outcomes.

Image
User avatar
Typeing3
Weather Psycho
Weather Psycho
Posts: 12090
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:02 pm
Location: Coquitlam
Elevation: 25M./80Ft.
Has thanked: 20133 times
Been thanked: 22586 times

Re: July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Mentions of '55-56 as a winter analogue on the American forum. That's a fairly high bar to set this early.
:typing: :type3:
East Coquitlam
Elevation 25M (80Ft)
#MrJanuary :geek: 8-)
Post Reply