August 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[stuffradio]

CFS monthly is starting to creep back towards being a slightly normal or warmer than normal August in terms of temps in the last few days. It's hard to believe we're already here and in just a couple of short weeks, we will have Christmas/Halloween in the stores and Pumpkin spice in Starbucks. What do you guys think in terms of what to expect this month? I have seen posts showing a cooler than normal fall given the current ENSO conditions.

[Typeing3]

Ensembles look cool and potentially showery in the long range.

[Roberts Creeker]

Ensembles look cool and potentially showery in the long range.

Welcome to Augtober.

[Mattman]

Yeah, it's looking La Ninaish in the north Pacific. What was impressive with this past heatwave in the interior was not so much its intensity as it's duration. Seven days in a row of 35C or greater in Kelowna. I don't have time to dig into the records., but I don't think memorable summers there like June '92, '94, '98, '03, and '06 had protracted heat like that.

[PortKells]

Ensembles look cool and potentially showery in the long range.

Semi serious question...did you look at the chart? All I see are normal temperatures with a few outliers suggesting some rain but mostly dry. I know you like heatwaves, but you realize that we cant just have one long two month straight heat wave, right? Thats like hoping it snows every day from dec 1 to mar 1.

[Typeing3]

Semi serious question...did you look at the chart? All I see are normal temperatures with a few outliers suggesting some rain but mostly dry. I know you like heatwaves, but you realize that we cant just have one long two month straight heat wave, right? Thats like hoping it snows every day from dec 1 to mar 1.

The mean was below average from Aug 6th through till the end of the chart. Also...ensembles and the operational GFS hint we'll be entering into a troughy period through at least mid month.

Even though precip looks very spotty or nil in the long range right now, we'll see precip chances and amounts pick up (if the troughy pattern holds) as we draw closer to the long range.

[John]

Semi serious question...did you look at the chart? All I see are normal temperatures with a few outliers suggesting some rain but mostly dry. I know you like heatwaves, but you realize that we cant just have one long two month straight heat wave, right? Thats like hoping it snows every day from dec 1 to mar 1.

I think he knows what he’s looking at....

[Monty]

Warm and muggy today. 28C with a dew point of 19C and even a few rain showers around, though there was nothing in Shawnigan lake. There were a few downpours and even some hail just north of here.

[PortKells]

The mean was below average from Aug 6th through till the end of the chart. Also...ensembles and the operational GFS hint we'll be entering into a troughy period through at least mid month.

Even though precip looks very spotty or nil in the long range right now, we'll see precip chances and amounts pick up (if the troughy pattern holds) as we draw closer to the long range.

Sorry t3. This heat really gets to me. I dont really understand it...its like when the temperature goes above 25C I turn into the hyde version of myself, lol. I can kind of understand the grimace on people's faces when it gets cold in the winter, except my grimace is for the polar opposite reason.

I do think it's good to have perspective on how many stinking hot summers weve seen in recent years. And this one hasn't been bad at all for heat lovers, in my opinion. We've had our heat. I'd like to see some variation here to end off the summer - some ridging, some troughing some in between.

[BhamMe]

Welcome to Augtober.

Augtober!!! LOL!!!

[BhamMe]

Woke up to a layer of fog here in Bellingham this morning, which I thought was going to mean a cool start to the day but instead it was muggy as all get out at 8:30 AM.

[stuffradio]

12Z GFS has a rain storm at hour 300.

[Bonovox]

Yes please.

[Roberts Creeker]

12Z GFS has a rain storm at hour 300.

Like the snowstorm in winter.

[BhamMe]

Yes please.

If you can guarantee it, I'm buying!