October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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wetcoast91
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Weather101 wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:54 am I'm going to guess we will see a chilly pattern coming up but nothing to crazy.
Really dry. Chilly and then potentially an inversion with high level moisture swinging over the ridge. You can see the models showing signs of undercutting in the 8-10 day range which would put the West Coast at risk for an AR event in the 11-14 day period.

Just looks really Ninoish but makes sense at looking at the latest numbers. A moderate to strong Nina can result in patterns like this in the Oct-Dec period.

Good news in this is that California sees a ton of rain and Mountain snow.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:22 pm Really dry. Chilly and then potentially an inversion with high level moisture swinging over the ridge. You can see the models showing signs of undercutting in the 8-10 day range which would put the West Coast at risk for an AR event in the 11-14 day period.

Just looks really Ninoish but makes sense at looking at the latest numbers. A moderate to strong Nina can result in patterns like this in the Oct-Dec period.

Good news in this is that California sees a ton of rain and Mountain snow.
You know what? California needs rain more than we want snow. I would happily have a pathetic winter if it means fewer hectares burned and fewer lives ruined.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:22 pm Really dry. Chilly and then potentially an inversion with high level moisture swinging over the ridge. You can see the models showing signs of undercutting in the 8-10 day range which would put the West Coast at risk for an AR event in the 11-14 day period.

Just looks really Ninoish but makes sense at looking at the latest numbers. A moderate to strong Nina can result in patterns like this in the Oct-Dec period.

Good news in this is that California sees a ton of rain and Mountain snow.
Cali really needs it
All about them Cowboys !!! 🤠 🤠👌
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Coquitlam79 »

Next week looks pretty wet before the cool down next weekend.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

VanCitySouth wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:39 pm You know what? California needs rain more than we want snow. I would happily have a pathetic winter if it means fewer hectares burned and fewer lives ruined.
Not to mention the food they produce for many places including BC. And wine, less importantly.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Antares »

PortKells wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:30 pm Not to mention the food they produce for many places including BC. And wine, less importantly.
:objection:

Excuse me, wine is not less important! :x
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Very wet next week on the ensembles:
ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-ens_box-4145600.png
cmc-ensemble-all-CYXX-ens_box-4145600.png
gfs-ensemble-all-CYXX-ens_box-4167200.png
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Conflicting reports. Nito says really dry. Ensembles say Wet.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Hmm. Halloween was pretty close to normal here in the way of trick or treaters. We had 75-80. We normally get around 100. I think the typical range is probably 80-120 in this neighborhood.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by tyweather »

Snowy run
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Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Antares »

Monty wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:55 pm Hmm. Halloween was pretty close to normal here in the way of trick or treaters. We had 75-80. We normally get around 100. I think the typical range is probably 80-120 in this neighborhood.
Good to hear. :thumbup:
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Monty wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:48 pm Conflicting reports. Nito says really dry. Ensembles say Wet.
El Nito years are typically dry. That explains it. :thumbup: :lol:
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Antares wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:22 pm :objection:

Excuse me, wine is not less important! :x
True, but I think the okanagans wineries alone could easily cover BCs demand in a pinch.

Food wise, the picture is murky. We need california to keep producing food for us, sadly. So their weather is somewhat relevant to us in that sense.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

tyweather wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:58 pmSnowy run
Nice!
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Lisa0527 »

tyweather wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:58 pmSnowy run
Why does my Tropical Tidbits map for that date look nothing like this :?:

Edit: figured it out. That’s yesterday’s forecast. Today’s looks drier.
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