November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Storm
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November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

We might as well start looking into November.
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... 65634?s=19
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Storm wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:10 pm We might as well start looking into November.
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... 65634?s=19
GOA low. Positive heights across the entire CONUS.

Very wet signal for BC/WA with no reprieve from drought in California.

A cold Alaska would set BC up well as we go into winter.
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:44 pm GOA low. Positive heights across the entire CONUS.

Very wet signal for BC/WA with no reprieve from drought in California.

A cold Alaska would set BC up well as we go into winter.
Nice to see but the question is how reliable is the JMA model?
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Very wet pattern shown on the Canadian ensembles. :thumbup:
cmc-ensemble-all-CYXX-indiv_qpf-3540800.png
cmc-ensemble-all-CYXX-ens_box-3540800.png
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

Happy November! Remember DST ended so models come out an hour earlier. Score! This is what I like to see :)
CFSv2.NaT2m.20201101.202012.gif
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Very wet next week and then very dry with chilly surface temperatures. Sounds ok with me.

No early ski season though.
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:29 am Very wet next week and then very dry with chilly surface temperatures. Sounds ok with me.

No early ski season though.
Persistent fog and inversions are always a possibility with such a set-up.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

Environment Canada says colder than normal November...
mfe1t_s.png
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:43 am Persistent fog and inversions are always a possibility with such a set-up.
A N-S gradient would have suggested otherwise but the ridge is nosing further east with each run which would put us into a major stagnant airmass by next Sunday. Cold air dumping into the Praries. Wouldn't be surprised if future runs plant that ridge directly overhead.

Image
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:17 am A N-S gradient would have suggested otherwise but the ridge is nosing further east with each run which would put us into a major stagnant airmass by next Sunday. Cold air dumping into the Praries. Wouldn't be surprised if future runs plant that ridge directly overhead.

Image
We shall see. It seems as if every time I anticipate the development of persistent inversion conditions, it does not materialize.

Then again, I shouldn’t feel so bad about it. Inversions give the pros headaches, too.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Wow the Canadian monthlies show cold anomolies for the next five months, whatever thats worth.
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

You need a pretty anomalously warm airmass setup overhead to establish any type of meaningful inversion. There is really no sign of that happening any time soon in any of the ensembles. Maybe the models are wrong but maybe they aren’t.
20DCF09E-BC2F-4883-8F25-4BC3C31CF5A7.png
5445C8D5-7772-4235-86A0-65F1CE0A3A46.png
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Special weather statement out for the south coast. :D
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Sardisbcwx wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:46 pm Special weather statement out for the south coast. :D
Yup heavy rainstorm likely. :thumbup: :clap:
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Re: November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

AbbyJr wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:02 pm Yup heavy rainstorm likely. :thumbup: :clap:
models are aggressively wet
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