Winter 2021-2022

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Antares
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Winter 2021-2022

Post by Antares »

Anyone getting excited yet? :wave:

ENSO region 3.4 is -0.6 and generally trending to zero, which bodes well for us (recent neutral winters have been good for BC as a whole)
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I'm sure a lot will be gun-shy, including myself, but fingers crossed...

:snowwindow: :snowwindow: :snowwindow:
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Re: Winter 2021-2022

Post by Bonovox »

Phil is pretty convinced of a multi year nina. I'll take neutral though.

Last winter really burned me. Such high expectations, which is probably my fault, but whatever.
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Re: Winter 2021-2022

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Bonovox wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 4:18 pm Phil is pretty convinced of a multi year nina. I'll take neutral though.

Last winter really burned me. Such high expectations, which is probably my fault, but whatever.
Agreed and same with me last winter was very taxing and disappointing. I think l'll go into next winter not expecting much better for my health as well. :lol:
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Re: Winter 2021-2022

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Antares wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:43 am Anyone getting excited yet? :wave:

ENSO region 3.4 is -0.6 and generally trending to zero, which bodes well for us (recent neutral winters have been good for BC as a whole)
Image

I'm sure a lot will be gun-shy, including myself, but fingers crossed...

:snowwindow: :snowwindow: :snowwindow:
l think the one phrase that describes our failed winter's is. "You can't handle the truth"
The 6th annual alzheimer's snowfall contest
:team: Canoodles record: 44-18-8
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 43cm :wtf:
:hockey: South Sardines: 57cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
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Re: Winter 2021-2022

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Sardisbcwx wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 12:40 am l think the one phrase that describes our failed winter's is. "You can't handle the truth"
I'm looking forward to winter with these heatwaves in the forecast.
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Re: Winter 2021-2022

Post by PortKells »

Roberts Creeker wrote: Sat Jun 19, 2021 9:15 am I'm looking forward to winter with these heatwaves in the forecast.
It's funny I'm almost more down for spring and fall these days. The winters have seen more frustration than they're worth and summers have been smoke filled nightmares. This spring and last have been pleasant though and fall with the colours can be so spectacular.

That said, hopefully one of these winters doesn't suck, ala 2016/2017.
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Re: Winter 2021-2022

Post by Roberts Creeker »

PortKells wrote: Sat Jun 19, 2021 11:10 am It's funny I'm almost more down for spring and fall these days. The winters have seen more frustration than they're worth and summers have been smoke filled nightmares. This spring and last have been pleasant though and fall with the colours can be so spectacular.

That said, hopefully one of these winters doesn't suck, ala 2016/2017.
That's so true, I don't expect anything epic from spring and fall so no disappointments or worries and I like the variability in the weather.
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Re: Winter 2021-2022

Post by Typeing3 »

Euro seasonal as of August 1st. 500mb height anomalies:

DEC
Screenshot_20210808-130947_Chrome.jpg.31e10d9a0b3092dff8ea0d21dfbfccd4.jpg
JAN
Screenshot_20210808-131004_Chrome.thumb.jpg.a2d4ca3e46f21d2f1585db6764445211.jpg
FEB
Screenshot_20210808-131028_Chrome.thumb.jpg.a256b54f44c02381f8f2102861665b99.jpg
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Re: Winter 2021-2022

Post by Typeing3 »

Preliminary winter forecast by WeatherBell.
November_2021_March_2022_Forecast.png.17b0ac2bbf427e0e6ae1c9f226fb131f.png
Snowfall_Forecast_Winter_2021_22.png.faeaccf35d0d7abc0897ae22ca398523.png
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Re: Winter 2021-2022

Post by Typeing3 »

Waters east of Japan have cooled significantly over the last couple weeks.

FWIW, I recall this also happening during late summer/early fall 2016, which ultimately lead to the strong zonal/SW jet with constant precip for us in Oct and Nov. I think we'd all love a repeat of that winter!
cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png
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Re: Winter 2021-2022

Post by Bonovox »

Typeing3 wrote: Sun Aug 15, 2021 8:21 pm Waters east of Japan have cooled significantly over the last couple weeks.

FWIW, I recall this also happening during late summer/early fall 2016, which ultimately lead to the strong zonal/SW jet with constant precip for us in Oct and Nov. I think we'd all love a repeat of that winter!
I'll take zonal over split flow every day of the week. ;)
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Re: Winter 2021-2022

Post by Canada Goose »

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Re: Winter 2021-2022

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Re: Winter 2021-2022

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Consensus on the AF seems to be that the second winters of two-winter La Niñas generally suck.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: Winter 2021-2022

Post by Hound »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:38 am Consensus on the AF seems to be that the second winters of two-winter La Niñas generally suck.
Well that's depressing. :problem:
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