September Forecasts And Discussions

[Typeing3]

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/stat ... 8112823298

1992 would be a great fall-winter analogue to follow. Chilly to cold with plenty of snow and clear periods from mid December thru mid January. Similar pattern in winter '16-17 was a more moderate version of '92-93.

[SouthSardiswx]

No heat dome but could see a couple days in the low 20s this weekend into early next week.

12z GFS ensembles:ens_image (7).png

That'll work Trex shorts are due for a wash by then anyway's.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (9).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (8).png

[Glacier]

BC and Canadian weather summaries for yesterday. BC dominated the wind category!

You might have to download to view properly.

sept28bc.png

sept28.png

[SouthSardiswx]

BC and Canadian weather summaries for yesterday. BC dominated the wind category!

You might have to download to view properly.

sept28bc.png

sept28.png

Absolutely insane winds for Fort Nelson airport yesterday.

[Glacier]

Absolutely insane winds for Fort Nelson airport yesterday.

Something looks fishy about that number. At no time during the day did the windspeed ever get to double digits. Hard to imagine gusts of 100km/h when there's not much wind. https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... dYear=2021

By contrast, Fort St. John was having wind speeds over 30km/h, so having gusts of 50km/h would seem reasonable. https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... dYear=2021

[Abby_wx]

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (9).png

Wow, the OP is really out of phase with the ensembles on that one.

Pretty stoked for one last gasp of mild sunny weather. Nothing beats low 20's early fall weather. It would line up nicely with my days off as well.

[tyweather]

Snow levels are at 1500 m today

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (10).png

[AbbyJr]

I know I've mentioned this before, probably many times before but I would love to see another January 1954 repeat. Abbotsford got hit with insane snows. Arctic air roared in on January 14 and locked in for 2 weeks with 118.7 cm of snow falling in a week. It actually snowed every day for 7 days straight. January 21, 1954 still holds the record for the highest daily snowfall in Abbotsford when 49.8 cm was recorded within 24 hours.

Why can't we get that kind of winter event anymore?

[PortKells]

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (10).png

That looks way different. Not much of a dry stretch anymore.

[Typeing3]

That looks way different. Not much of a dry stretch anymore.

Yep. I think we'll still eke out a couple dry/sunny days, but despite the early start it looks like the wet season is well and truly here.

Perhaps it'll translate into a heavy-hitting front loaded winter too.

[AbbyJr]

Yep. I think we'll still eke out a couple dry/sunny days, but despite the early start it looks like the wet season is well and truly here.

Perhaps it'll translate into a heavy-hitting front loaded winter too.

If the early season SSW event shown on the long range models verifies, than I think we have a solid chance of a front loaded winter.

The CFSv2 looks epic for December but we'll see what it shows in the next update. Its still far too soon for confidence but an early season SSW event during La Nina would probably favour the west in terms of a cold and snowy pattern. Unfortunately, there are no guarantees.

But a December 1964, 1968, 1990, 1996, or 2008 repeat must be on the horizon.

[Typeing3]

If the early season SSW event shown on the long range models verifies, than I think we have a solid chance of a front loaded winter.

The CFSv2 looks epic for December but we'll see what it shows in the next update. Its still far too soon for confidence but an early season SSW event during La Nina would probably favour the west in terms of a cold and snowy pattern. Unfortunately, there are no guarantees.

But a December 1964, 1968, 1990, 1996, or 2008 repeat must be on the horizon.

If we're talking about good Decembers for snow and/or cold over the past 60-70 years, I'd add 1951, 1965, 1971, 1972, 1983, 1984, 1992 and 2016 to the list too.

[Glacier]

Having a December-January of 1968/69 would be epic. Lower Post in the far north of the Province averaged below -30C for the entire winter, which is the only time any weather station BC has done so. That was the winter my mom moved to BC. She almost died of cold when her boat was shipwrecked way out in Jervis Inlet in the middle of winter.