October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Abby_wx
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

SouthSardiswx wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 1:23 am I should note 196.0mm for the month of October, l'm curious what Abby sr or Jr. man have for this weekend storm total and for the month.
Wow, you got hammered!

My storm total was 63 mm, and only 147 mm for October.

My average for October is 152.5 mm.
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Buy a boat.
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/stat ... Zcw1KRwj1g
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Setting us up for a #ColdJanuary?

Oh wait, that's not possible anymore... :(
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tyweather
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by tyweather »

Looks like the warm ridging comes in just in time for me to come home from Mexico. Tyweather will be missing it all. Hopefully this isn't the only cold snap of the winter, if it indeed happens.
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Typeing3
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Abby_wx wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:38 pm Wow, you got hammered!

My storm total was 63 mm, and only 147 mm for October.

My average for October is 152.5 mm.
Northeast Coquitlam rain gauge

Saturday: 8.0mm
Sunday: 85.3mm
Today: 9.5mm
October total: 276.8mm

Source: https://www.flowworks.com/network/rainf ... &year=2022
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

tyweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 5:17 pm Looks like the warm ridging comes in just in time for me to come home from Mexico. Tyweather will be missing it all. Hopefully this isn't the only cold snap of the winter, if it indeed happens.
Early season cold snaps seem to be followed by Dudly winters so hopefully this isn't a case of that.
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

PortKells wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 6:43 pm Early season cold snaps seem to be followed by Dudly winters so hopefully this isn't a case of that.
And it's been a weird La Niña for some time. So it would not be a total surprise if it ends up being a dud Niña, i.e. with the exception of a November cold snap not cold and snowy. We shall see.
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

PortKells wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 6:43 pm Early season cold snaps seem to be followed by Dudly winters so hopefully this isn't a case of that.
Definitely true more often than not during an El Nino winter. However typically during a Nina with a cold snap in November, we will have at least one other good window for winter weather. Some recent examples:

2017-18: early November cold snap/snow, late December minor cold/snow, mid-late February cold snap snow
2011-12: mid November minor cold snap/snow, mid January cold snap/snow
2010-11: mid November cold snap/snow, late February cold snap/snow
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Canada Goose »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 5:22 pm Northeast Coquitlam rain gauge

Saturday: 8.0mm
Sunday: 85.3mm
Today: 9.5mm
October total: 276.8mm

Source: https://www.flowworks.com/network/rainf ... &year=2022
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Mattman »

A couple thoughts about those weather weenies in the east:
1. They're speaking more like politicians and less like scientists by latching onto a small thread of truth and making a bigger deal out of that by ignoring more dominant factors/signals. Or:
2. Having a pattern break after 2-3 weeks is expected. It would be like saying that at some point tomorrow afternoon it'll be 2 o'clock. They sound important. And when there is a cold snap--even if it's transitory lasting only 2-3 days--they can claim a victory.

As for next week: My guess is 5cm of snot by the 13th out in the valley followed by the westerlies breaking through as the Pacific dumps a went slog on us. As much as I salivated over the 12z GFS op, my logical, Vulcan side is saying, "Forget winter tires, get the Anusol." :D
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Mattman wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 8:00 pm A couple thoughts about those weather weenies in the east:
1. They're speaking more like politicians and less like scientists by latching onto a small thread of truth and making a bigger deal out of that by ignoring more dominant factors/signals. Or:
2. Having a pattern break after 2-3 weeks is expected. It would be like saying that at some point tomorrow afternoon it'll be 2 o'clock. They sound important. And when there is a cold snap--even if it's transitory lasting only 2-3 days--they can claim a victory.

As for next week: My guess is 5cm of snot by the 13th out in the valley followed by the westerlies breaking through as the Pacific dumps a went slog on us. As much as I salivated over the 12z GFS op, my logical, Vulcan side is saying, "Forget winter tires, get the Anusol." :D
:lol: Well said Mattress man and l'm sure Chilliwack John would approve of the political overtures and perhaps the 5cm of snots.
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Looking like a dry chill up here while our pals down south get hit with :flakey: :flakey: :flakey:

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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Storm »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 9:18 pm Looking like a dry chill up here while our pals down south get hit with :flakey: :flakey: :flakey:

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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Storm »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 9:18 pm Looking like a dry chill up here while our pals down south get hit with :flakey: :flakey: :flakey:

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Temps. are not supporting Snow down there.
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