November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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SouthSardiswx
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Its that the correct consensus Jr. man? or anyone.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 12:41 am Yes agree Slyts but l'm assuming the Arctic air is still on the table? I'm presuming it's the early next week event that is up in the air.
Hopefully we'll still score some good sticking snow. :thumbup:
850mb temps do not look to drop below -10c across the south coast after the system passes, so no arctic air for us; gradual trend over the last few days has been to keep it pretty bottled up in the interior.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (2).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (3).png
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

20221127091217-a9179a857d4846374c23687e0116697d75e90442.png
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

12z NAM shows the low making landfall across northern Vancouver Island early Wednesday... would mean snow to rain with a switch to southerly winds for us.
namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_fh60-84.gif
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 1:23 am 12z NAM shows the low making landfall across northern Vancouver Island early Wednesday... would mean snow to rain with a switch to southerly winds for us.
namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_fh60-84.gif
Apart from the GFS, tonight's trends are a big disappointment. Hopefully we are just seeing some warm outliers but I'm not so sure.

Please no January 2011 bust. :bang: :bang: :bang:
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 1:26 am Apart from the GFS, tonight's trends are a big disappointment. Hopefully we are just seeing some warm outliers but I'm not so sure.

Please no January 2011 bust. :bang: :bang: :bang:
Most realistic scenario. Big snowfall followed by a transition to rain. Rapidly deepening lows usually like to make landfall to our north and don't slowly sag south or hang just offshore.

Silver lining is there does not appear to be a significant warmup... may transition back to snow late Wednesday or Thursday.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Ya know, even five days ago, my rule of thumb with the GFS and cold waves (add about 10ËšF or 6ËšC to the modeled temperatures) resulted in a pretty sloppy, wet, marginal snow event. So not a huge surprise where the pullback is leaving us.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hound »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Sat Nov 26, 2022 6:41 pm Old John 63.
Well, you do pretty good on the forum and computer stuff for a 63 year youngin'
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hound »

John wrote: Sat Nov 26, 2022 7:07 pm89
That is amazing if true, especially since you get a grip of the forum quite well!
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hound »

Dew point finally dropping tonight after the winds. My DP has almost been on par with the temps for the last few days, now it's 5.5 out with a DP of +2

Baby steps...
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

06z GFS stays the course... so far.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh60-108.gif
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

The 06Z GFS still shows a major snowstorm during the 24 period of Tuesday at 7:00 PM to Wednesday at 7:00 PM. :thumbup:

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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hound »

Well, DP has now dropped to -1
Still +5 out though.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Typeing3 wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 1:32 am Most realistic scenario. Big snowfall followed by a transition to rain. Rapidly deepening lows usually like to make landfall to our north and don't slowly sag south or hang just offshore.

Silver lining is there does not appear to be a significant warmup... may transition back to snow late Wednesday or Thursday.
Well what made Jan. 2011 so painful remember it collapsed right at prime time for us Jan 8th. I wasn't expecting anything this early TBH, if we get anything like afew slush falls and some bordline temps. consider it an early win. Dec to mid Jan is our prime time we haven't started yet. :thumbup:
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