Winter 2019-20 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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John
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Re: Winter 2019-20 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

That’s some incredible Sh*t but i didn’t believe in analogs :problem:
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Re: Winter 2019-20 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Canada Goose »

Glacier wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:40 am Did someone say ANALOG!

And how does that compare against other years being discussed, you ask?
Yep, climate doesn't work like this. Wait and see...
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Re: Winter 2019-20 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Coquitlam79 wrote: Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:45 am Same guy just predicted a dry spell lasting through most of November for SW BC. If he's right that really sucks for the start of the ski season cuz it's pretty much a guarantee that if there is a 3 week or so dry spell that it will be replaced by an atmospheric river/pineapple express type pattern. It usually happens that way at this time of year following extended ridging.
Well he is pretty bang on with dry November...wow :clap: :clap:
Of course it could easily be 18c and bommy during this strong EN, but instead March starts out troffy and chilly! :shock: :shock: Bring on some 18c sunny days
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Re: Winter 2019-20 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Canada Goose wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:42 pm Yep, climate doesn't work like this. Wait and see...
So you don’t think we’re going to see -20s on the coast this winter?
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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Re: Winter 2019-20 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Canada Goose »

Monty wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:01 pm So you don’t think we’re going to see -20s on the coast this winter?
I don't think anything about seasonal forecast. It's way too complicated.

What I mean is that we can have a very dry and mild November, then a very dry and mild winter or a very wet and mild winter or a very wet and cold winter or a very dry and cold winter. :lol:

It's unlikely that we have this pattern all winter, so wait to see...
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Re: Winter 2019-20 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Canada Goose wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:14 pm I don't think anything about seasonal forecast. It's way too complicated.

What I mean is that we can have a very dry and mild November, then a very dry and mild winter or a very wet and mild winter or a very wet and cold winter or a very dry and cold winter. :lol:

It's unlikely that we have this pattern all winter, so wait to see...
It’s fun to prognosticate.
Fun fact. I think the last -20C on the south coast was 2008
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Re: Winter 2019-20 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Monty wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:17 pm It’s fun to prognosticate.
Fun fact. I think the last -20C on the south coast was 2008
Nanaimo?
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Re: Winter 2019-20 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Typeing3 wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:21 pmNanaimo?
Yes sir. Their data is a bit sketchy that month, unfortunately, but it seems plausible looking at the hourly obs.
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Re: Winter 2019-20 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Canada Goose »

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Re: Winter 2019-20 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Glacier »

December 2008 was the last time Kelowna was -30. Also, it was the EARLIEST ever to hit -30, reaching that mark on the 20th!

https://climat.meteo.gc.ca/climate_data ... &Year=2008

Other FACTS from Dec 2008:

-20.0C in:
NANAIMO
KITIMAT
OKANAGAN CENTRE
BILLINGS
KASLO
SOUTH SLOCAN
WARFIELD

-21.0C in:
OSOYOOS
PEACHLAND

-25.5C in:
NASS CAMP
WHISTLER ROUNDHOUSE
WHISTLER MOUNTAIN HIGH LEVEL
VERNON

-30 to -35C in:
FORT ST JAMES
MERRITT
SMITHERS
PRINCE GEORGE
CRANBROOK

Coldest spots:

PUNTZI MOUNTAIN (AUT) = -43
GERMANSEN LANDING = -42.9 [Weather station has since closed]
HORSEFLY LAKE GRUHS LAKE = -41
100 MILE HOUSE 6NE = -41
LUNCH LAKE = -40.5 [Weather station has since closed]
CHETWYND A = -40.5
SPOKIN LAKE 4E = -40
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Re: Winter 2019-20 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/ne ... ow-outlook
5D6437A7-43B6-4979-9C71-4F6F42AFDDE4.jpeg
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Re: Winter 2019-20 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Catnip wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:00 am https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/ne ... ow-outlook

5D6437A7-43B6-4979-9C71-4F6F42AFDDE4.jpeg
CKNW mentioned this morning looks like a good dart board to me. :wtf:
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