January 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

Apparently the GEM wasn't good. We need the Euro and the EPS before we should really get our hopes and dreams alive.

[Catnip]

#day10plus

[Roberts Creeker]

Does anyone have an update for the wind this week? Is it still on?
Thank you and Happy New Year 🥳

Happy New Yer Leah and welcome to the forums. It'll be nice to have weather reports from Salt Spring.

[PortKells]

FWIW, the ICON looks similar to the GFS at hour 180, but you have to extrapolate.

[Hawk]

Nito doesnt need to enter the house. He is in perpetual victory every day on here.

[Hawk]

Snow levels skyrocketed here - Similkameen - last night. Led to a rainy evening

[Catnip]

Nito doesnt need to enter the house. He is in perpetual victory every day on here.

but Storm might have one for u!

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

#day10plus

And only the GFS is really on board.

[Hawk]

Let's give credit where it is due. Its now 2020 and we can turn the page on a very sad Nov and Dec. Nito crushed us snowlovers

[Catnip]

Snow levels skyrocketed here - Similkameen - last night. Led to a rainy evening

Still around freezing in an area that is too coastal. Snowed all day/evening there too.

[Canada Goose]

Does anyone have an update for the wind this week? Is it still on?

Very rare to see that in the forecast 2 days before the event...

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[Canada Goose]

https://twitter.com/ECCCWeatherBC/statu ... 0042314753

[Abby_wx]

Very rare to see that in the forecast 2 days before the event...


Capture d’écran 2020-01-01 à 09.47.58.jpg

That's odd indeed... the Abbotsford forecast just says "windy". I guess they expect it to be less windy here? I haven't been paying much attention, but I thought the models showed the strongest winds being in the valley -- not that I put a lot of faith in the models.

Anyway, I find it highly unlikely to see wind gusts over 100 km/h for the mainland with the center of low pressure passing so far to our north. I'm not saying it could not happen with a very squally cold front, but it's kind of uncharted territory. The only instances where I've seen wind gusts exceed 100 km/h are with a strong surface low or a major outflow event.

[Monty]

Looks like the euro botched things back with the wind potential

[Monty]

That's odd indeed... the Abbotsford forecast just says "windy". I guess they expect it to be less windy here? I haven't been paying much attention, but I thought the models showed the strongest winds being in the valley -- not that I put a lot of faith in the models.

Anyway, I find it highly unlikely to see wind gusts over 100 km/h for the mainland with the center of low pressure passing so far to our north. I'm not saying it could not happen with a very squally cold front, but it's kind of uncharted territory. The only instances where I've seen wind gusts exceed 100 km/h are with a strong surface low or a major outflow event.

I think the euro has been so windy because it has been showing a second low forming along the front just west of Vancouver island, with a tight gradient to its south. These double barrel low type situations have historically given the models trouble and often lead to less extreme outcomes

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