Winter 2020-2021

[PortKells]

I agree. However, having a cold North Pacific does help us get low elevation snows during marginal onshore flows, which tend to be more common than true continental air masses. That said, I do think we will see at least one legit arctic air mass this winter. I could be wrong but I hope not.

I think the SSTs closer to us have the most effect on marginal events, but I could be wrong. These SSTs have cooled a bit in the last week. Also just going off of my general observation, our winter patterns seem to start as very wet and mild for a few weeks, followed by some level of ridging, followed by that ridge moving north west and allowing arctic air to flow in. This was part of what led to last years arctic blast, was that extreme rainfall towards the end of December, when we started getting teased with model potential, which kept getting pushed back until the pattern was in place. It seems related to that GOA low building is very important for us, but once again that is anecdotal.

I'm just hoping that if this rings true this year, we can get the wet/mild out of the way in November and try our luck in December, maybe getting an early season cold blast which historically seems like a good sign. Perfect example would be December 2016, early December cold blast leads to good times for everyone.

[AbbyJr]

I think the SSTs closer to us have the most effect on marginal events, but I could be wrong. These SSTs have cooled a bit in the last week. Also just going off of my general observation, our winter patterns seem to start as very wet and mild for a few weeks, followed by some level of ridging, followed by that ridge moving north west and allowing arctic air to flow in. This was part of what led to last years arctic blast, was that extreme rainfall towards the end of December, when we started getting teased with model potential, which kept getting pushed back until the pattern was in place. It seems related to that GOA low building is very important for us, but once again that is anecdotal.

I'm just hoping that if this rings true this year, we can get the wet/mild out of the way in November and try our luck in December, maybe getting an early season cold blast which historically seems like a good sign. Perfect example would be December 2016, early December cold blast leads to good times for everyone.

December 1990, 1996, and 2008 are other good examples.

[PortKells]

December 1990, 1996, and 2008 are other good examples.

Heres one to think about.

1972, 1984, 1996, 2008, 2020...?

[Antares]

Some current imagery from the Pacific:

Enso anomalies
lat_lon_sst_anom_20201021_sst_mean_20201021_hf_on_2020102415.png

overall surface anomalies
ssta.daily.current.png

Interesting to see the west Pacific near Japan is very warm as well. I haven't really paid attention but I have not heard that much about typhoons this season; and typhoon season is pretty much over in the next week, climatologically speaking. Tokyo's forecast is bone dry as well...

I'm not worried though. Warmer waters aren't necessarily a bad thing for snow here unless you're talking small-scale (i.e. on the immediate coast). If anything, the higher SSTs should/could help intensify any incoming storms, which is what we want. We don't want weak low pressure storms sliding down the coast each week.

The NE pacific was pretty warm during 2016-17 by the way.

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... 89888?s=20

Does more Indian Ocean activity usually increase our chances of a cold and snowy La Nina here? Those two analog examples Ben gave weren't that great in terms of snow. December 1983 featured about a week of very cold arctic air but there was no snow during it. February 1989 delivered a short lived intense arctic blast, but again no snow during that one either. Later on that month, there was a brief snow event where Abbotsford recorded 15.8 cm but then it warmed up.

My point is that while both 1983/84 and 1988/89 certainly featured cold, I wouldn't consider them the greatest winters. Though that February 1989 arctic outbreak would have been memorable to experience.

I'd also add that those are just two analogs so that still doesn't answer my question as to whether greater Indian Ocean activity typically promotes colder and snowier patterns in our region. What are all of your thoughts?

[Typeing3]

Interesting to see the west Pacific near Japan is very warm as well. I haven't really paid attention but I have not heard that much about typhoons this season; and typhoon season is pretty much over in the next week, climatologically speaking. Tokyo's forecast is bone dry as well...

I'm not worried though. Warmer waters aren't necessarily a bad thing for snow here unless you're talking small-scale (i.e. on the immediate coast). If anything, the higher SSTs should/could help intensify any incoming storms, which is what we want. We don't want weak low pressure storms sliding down the coast each week.

The NE pacific was pretty warm during 2016-17 by the way.

Was actually thinking the same thing. Ended up being the best wall-to-wall winter since '92-93.

[AbbyJr]

Was actually thinking the same thing. Ended up being the best wall-to-wall winter since '92-93.

2016/17 was known for the amount of arctic blasts during the DJF period. We never really experienced a true continental arctic front, but we did see several arctic outbreaks during all three months, with several low elevation snows in December and February.

For Abbotsford, the February 2017 snow event was very similar to the December 2008 event. In 2008, the max snow depth at YXX was 49cm. In 2017, the max depth was 45cm. Of course many other nearby regions such as the Metro Vancouver suburbs had a lot more snow than YXX during the 2008 event but for Abbotsford, February 2017 was the snowiest since December 2008.

I would not complain about a redux of the 2016/17 winter at all.

[Typeing3]

Does more Indian Ocean activity usually increase our chances of a cold and snowy La Nina here? Those two analog examples Ben gave weren't that great in terms of snow. December 1983 featured about a week of very cold arctic air but there was no snow during it. February 1989 delivered a short lived intense arctic blast, but again no snow during that one either. Later on that month, there was a brief snow event where Abbotsford recorded 15.8 cm but then it warmed up.

My point is that while both 1983/84 and 1988/89 certainly featured cold, I wouldn't consider them the greatest winters. Though that February 1989 arctic outbreak would have been memorable to experience.
I'd also add that those are just two analogs so that still doesn't answer my question as to whether greater Indian Ocean activity typically promotes colder and snowier patterns in our region. What are all of your thoughts?

OT, but the December 1983 arctic blast is pretty underrated. YVR had three straight days with highs below -3C and lows below -10C with that one.

It was a pretty typical blast by 20th century standards, but YVR hasn't managed an event of that magnitude or duration so far in the 21st century.

[Abby_wx]

2016/17 was known for the amount of arctic blasts during the DJF period. We never really experienced a true continental arctic front, but we did see several arctic outbreaks during all three months, with several low elevation snows in December and February.

For Abbotsford, the February 2017 snow event was very similar to the December 2008 event. In 2008, the max snow depth at YXX was 49cm. In 2017, the max depth was 45cm. Of course many other nearby regions such as the Metro Vancouver suburbs had a lot more snow than YXX during the 2008 event but for Abbotsford, February 2017 was the snowiest since December 2008.

I would not complain about a redux of the 2016/17 winter at all.

For me it was not even close... a 52 cm peak depth in Dec. 2008 vs. just a 35 cm peak depth in Feb. 2017. I'm not saying I would complain about 35 cm, though.

I just hope we can score a total like that in December or January instead of February. It's a shame we didn't see impressive snowfall totals this past January despite having plenty of cold to work with.

The last decent December snowfall total was in 2016, and before that way back in 2008. I think we got so caught up in the failure of January to deliver, that we've overlooked how lousy December has become.

I just checked my average snowfall for each winter month over the past 11 years (starting in winter 2009/10):

Dec 8.45 cm
Jan 8.05 cm
Feb 17.82 cm

I'm amazed by the extent to which February has blown away both other winter months! I've not checked the official totals for YXX, but the 1981-2010 normal for February is only 8.6 cm, whereas the normals for December and January are 16.5 cm and 18.5 cm, respectively. Basically, we've seen double our normal snowfall for February, and half our normal for December and January.

[AbbyJr]

For me it was not even close... a 52 cm peak depth in Dec. 2008 vs. just a 35 cm peak depth in Feb. 2017. I'm not saying I would complain about 35 cm, though.

I just hope we can score a total like that in December or January instead of February. It's a shame we didn't see impressive snowfall totals this past January despite having plenty of cold to work with.

The last decent December snowfall total was in 2016, and before that way back in 2008. I think we got so caught up in the failure of January to deliver, that we've overlooked how lousy December has become.

I just checked my average snowfall for each winter month over the past 11 years (starting in winter 2009/10):

Dec 8.45 cm
Jan 8.05 cm
Feb 17.82 cm

I'm amazed by the extent to which February has blown away both other winter months! I've not checked the official totals for YXX, but the 1981-2010 normal for February is only 8.6 cm, whereas the normals for December and January are 16.5 cm and 18.5 cm, respectively. Basically, we've seen double our normal snowfall for February, and half our normal for December and January.

Its interesting that you only had a max depth of 35cm with the February 2017 event. I measured 45cm at my place and so did YXX.

Must be microclimate.

[Typeing3]

The last decent December snowfall total was in 2016, and before that way back in 2008. I think we got so caught up in the failure of January to deliver, that we've overlooked how lousy December has become.

We had a pretty decent snowfall total in December 2012 as well. Ended up with a white Christmas here in Coquitlam.

[Abby_wx]

We had a pretty decent snowfall total in December 2012 as well. Ended up with a white Christmas here in Coquitlam.

I had to look back at my records... I did have some flurries on Christmas Day, but no accumulation. Total accumulation was 7.4 cm for the month.

[Abby_wx]

Its interesting that you only had a max depth of 35cm with the February 2017 event. I measured 45cm at my place and so did YXX.

Must be microclimate.

I seem to recall that the outflow was pretty strong and there was a persistent dry slot over east Abbotsford. I don't recall where the dividing line between the lighter and heavier totals was... perhaps around Clearbrook Road. It's interesting that you had the exact same amount as YXX.

[Typeing3]

I had to look back at my records... I did have some flurries on Christmas Day, but no accumulation. Total accumulation was 7.4 cm for the month.

Interesting....I recall quite the snowstorm on the 18th/19th which dropped nearly 30cm once all was set and done.

Snowpack got hit on the following days with marginal temps and showers but still had about 5-10cm on the ground by the 25th. Lots more up the hill around Mundy Park and north towards Westwood Plateau.

[Catnip]

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