Winter 2020-2021

[Catnip]

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[PortKells]

Vancouver's actually never had a winter without at least a trace of snow in recorded history.

On the flip side, we've had many years with 100cm+ of snow.

Did yvr record a trace in 2014/2015?

[Monty]

Honest question, Do you think analogs really matter? Maybe to a extent but in the grand schemes of things I don't think they do, Yeah this happened 40 years ago doesn't mean it will happen again. I see analogs get tossed around every year and nothing ever comes of it lol just my opinion.

I find it to just be a cool thing to past time and maybe pick up a trend I just believe the climate has changed to much now.

Pretty much every winter forecast ever made is based on a combination of analogs, historical ENSO resultant global weather patterns (basically another version of analogs), and long range computer models (which use analogs to make their forecast). If you want to speculate on the coming winter. Analogs are really all we have.

[Monty]

Did yvr record a trace in 2014/2015?

There was a cold snap in late November. 4 days with a trace of snow. 2cm of snow one day and a sub freezing high one day.

Back when we had wickedly cold winters in the 1950s we had the winter of 57-58. It was warmer than 14-15 and had no measurable snow but did have several traces.

82-83 was a super dud. 1 day with a trace in November and then a very suspect 3cm in April (temps never fell below 2c)

[Typeing3]

There was a cold snap in late November. 4 days with a trace of snow. 2cm of snow one day and a sub freezing high one day.

Back when we had wickedly cold winters in the 1950s we had the winter of 57-58. It was warmer than 14-15 and had no measurable snow but did have several traces.

82-83 was a super dud. 1 day with a trace in November and then a very suspect 3cm in April (temps never fell below 2c)

57-58 was crazy warm. There were also a couple winters in the 30s and 40s with only traces of snow.

82-83 was a super Nino. If I'm not mistaken, California had massive floods that winter.

[Weather101]

Pretty much every winter forecast ever made is based on a combination of analogs, historical ENSO resultant global weather patterns (basically another version of analogs), and long range computer models (which use analogs to make their forecast). If you want to speculate on the coming winter. Analogs are really all we have.

Thanks for the explanation that makes a lot of sense.

[Typeing3]

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[Catnip]

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[AbbyJr]

From AccuWeather's winter forecast:

Anderson said there will be two distinct storm tracks that will dominate much of the country this winter. The first of those will leave residents in British Columbia and Alberta trying to catch snowflakes on their tongues after the initial need for umbrellas passes.

Along with that snow, the presence of that strong jet stream will also likely make conditions windier than normal in those provinces.

"This will deliver numerous storms into southern British Columbia this winter, which will result in copious amounts of rainfall along the coast with heavy snowfall for ski country in the Coastal Range and also throughout the Rockies of southeastern British Columba and southwestern Alberta," Anderson said.

Vancouver will be smacked by a higher volume of strong Pacific storms than normal with frequent rounds of locally strong winds and heavy rainfall. The sheer number of storms that the region will face also means a likelihood of significant snowfall for the coastal city, at least by Vancouver standards, Anderson explained.

"Normal snowfall for an average winter in Vancouver is only 38 cm (15 inches), but this year that total may end up closer to 45-50 cm (18-20 inches)," Anderson said. "Cypress Mountain ski area, which is not far from Vancouver, should get an abundance of snow this season," he added.

Sounds like Brett Anderson is predicting a winter dominated by a cold onshore flow where we get slammed with storm after storm, so many that some of them may interact with cold air resulting in overrunning low elevation snows. Of course some of the snow events could be prolonged but typically snowstorms with cold onshore flows are short lived with heavy snow changing to freezing rain and then to rain.

Of course I don't know if this is exactly the winter Brett Anderson predicts but thats how I would interpret what he said.

[Typeing3]

From AccuWeather's winter forecast:



Sounds like Brett Anderson is predicting a winter dominated by a cold onshore flow where we get slammed with storm after storm, so many that some of them may interact with cold air resulting in overrunning low elevation snows. Of course some of the snow events could be prolonged but typically snowstorms with cold onshore flows are short lived with heavy snow changing to freezing rain and then to rain.

Of course I don't know if this is exactly the winter Brett Anderson predicts but thats how I would interpret what he said.

Sounds 2007-08ish to me. Was a solid winter.

[AbbyJr]

Sounds 2007-08ish to me. Was a solid winter.

Thats the analog I was thinking of as well.

[Typeing3]

Someone on the american forum mentioned accuweather's analogue blend is '16/17, '10/11, '05/06, '95/96, '85/86 and '83/84.

Other than the '05-06 torchfest, all the other listed winters were pretty decent for us on the south coast.

[Catnip]

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[Monty]

Someone on the american forum mentioned accuweather's analogue blend is '16/17, '10/11, '05/06, '95/96, '85/86 and '83/84.

Other than the '05-06 torchfest, all the other listed winters were pretty decent for us on the south coast.

Not bad. But yes 05-6 can eff off.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Sounds like Brett Anderson is predicting a winter dominated by a cold onshore flow where we get slammed with storm after storm, so many that some of them may interact with cold air resulting in overrunning low elevation snows. Of course some of the snow events could be prolonged but typically snowstorms with cold onshore flows are short lived with heavy snow changing to freezing rain and then to rain.

That’s basically what I’m expecting, but with a pretty normal amount of snow in the lowlands.