arbetrader wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:27 am
Wasn't it only a couple years ago they were forecasting the coldest winter in 50 years for us?
Not sure that worked out like they thought lol...
I don't believe in seasonal forecasts even .01%. The fact that there is a La Nina state gives us a fighting chance in my opinion. But putting out winter forecasts at this stage is ridiculous.
PortKells wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:04 am
I don't believe in seasonal forecasts even .01%. The fact that there is a La Nina state gives us a fighting chance in my opinion. But putting out winter forecasts at this stage is ridiculous.
I always thought of a cold winter in Vancouver as drawing an ace from a deck of cards. When we get good parameters like La Nina and low solar etc, then all the royals are replaced by aces, so it's a better chance but still not guaranteed.
I could have gotten this idea off this very forum, but it would've been the old old iteration from over a decade ago so apologies if I forgot to credit someone here.
2023-24 season stats:
Climo 81 to 44 GFS
Season total: 39.0 cm + 3 traces
Peak depth: 28.0 cm (Jan 17)
For what its worth, September 1990 was unusually dry. October and November were abnormally wet, and then December and January featured epic cold and snow. This September is likely going to end up unusually dry. Just saying.
Latest CFS is trending towards a strong Nina for the winter with sea surface temp anomalies peaking around -1.75C. Highly doubt we see an event peak so strong but it has been a while (10 years) since our last significant Nina.
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Typeing3 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 08, 2020 4:25 pm
Latest CFS is trending towards a strong Nina for the winter with sea surface temp anomalies peaking around -1.75C. Highly doubt we see an event peak so strong but it has been a while (10 years) since our last significant Nina.
I think a Nina of some degree is pretty likely. Either way, we should have at least a decent winter. Hopefully epic.
Typeing3 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 06, 2020 5:33 pm
Here's a way too early look at potential analogues for this winter.
Winters included in the list below were either cold neutral or La Ninas (as this winter is forecast to be) and were proceeded by two winters which were either warm neutral or El Ninos, as the past two have been. Using this criteria, I ended up with these winters…
Keep in mind this list is focusing purely on ENSO conditions and not taking into accounts other factors such as the previous year's ENSO intensity (some were moderate/strong Ninos), QBO phase or low/high solar. I believe this winter is forecast to have a +QBO and we are still in a low solar phase so this list will undoubtedly be trimmed when taking either or both factors into account.
Correct me if I'm wrong, -Enso (La Nina) and +QBO (Westerly winds) plus low solar, are good combos for the west to be colder/snowier than normal?
81 to 44 
GFS
