November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions
- SouthSardiswx
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions
Its that the correct consensus Jr. man? or anyone.
Join us next season
Nukes are in round 2!!
Wrinkle Rockers: 43cm
South Sardines: 57cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
Nukes are in round 2!!
Wrinkle Rockers: 43cm
South Sardines: 57cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
- Typeing3
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions
850mb temps do not look to drop below -10c across the south coast after the system passes, so no arctic air for us; gradual trend over the last few days has been to keep it pretty bottled up in the interior.SouthSardiswx wrote: ↑Sun Nov 27, 2022 12:41 am Yes agree Slyts but l'm assuming the Arctic air is still on the table? I'm presuming it's the early next week event that is up in the air.
Hopefully we'll still score some good sticking snow.
East Coquitlam
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#MrJanuary
- Typeing3
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions
00z GFS ensembles:
00z ECMWF ensembles:
00z GEM ensembles:
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East Coquitlam
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#MrJanuary
- Typeing3
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions
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East Coquitlam
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#MrJanuary
- Typeing3
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions
12z NAM shows the low making landfall across northern Vancouver Island early Wednesday... would mean snow to rain with a switch to southerly winds for us.
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East Coquitlam
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#MrJanuary
- AbbyJr
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions
Apart from the GFS, tonight's trends are a big disappointment. Hopefully we are just seeing some warm outliers but I'm not so sure.
Please no January 2011 bust.
Central Abbotsford
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
50m (164ft)
2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
- Typeing3
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions
Most realistic scenario. Big snowfall followed by a transition to rain. Rapidly deepening lows usually like to make landfall to our north and don't slowly sag south or hang just offshore.
Silver lining is there does not appear to be a significant warmup... may transition back to snow late Wednesday or Thursday.
East Coquitlam
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#MrJanuary
- Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions
Ya know, even five days ago, my rule of thumb with the GFS and cold waves (add about 10ËšF or 6ËšC to the modeled temperatures) resulted in a pretty sloppy, wet, marginal snow event. So not a huge surprise where the pullback is leaving us.
It's called clown range for a reason.
- Hound
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions
Well, you do pretty good on the forum and computer stuff for a 63 year youngin'
North Surrey/Fraser Heights
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Elevation - 85 M./278 Ft.
- Hound
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions
That is amazing if true, especially since you get a grip of the forum quite well!
North Surrey/Fraser Heights
Elevation - 85 M./278 Ft.
Elevation - 85 M./278 Ft.
- Hound
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions
Dew point finally dropping tonight after the winds. My DP has almost been on par with the temps for the last few days, now it's 5.5 out with a DP of +2
Baby steps...
Baby steps...
North Surrey/Fraser Heights
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Elevation - 85 M./278 Ft.
- Typeing3
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions
06z GFS stays the course... so far.
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East Coquitlam
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#MrJanuary
- AbbyJr
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions
The 06Z GFS still shows a major snowstorm during the 24 period of Tuesday at 7:00 PM to Wednesday at 7:00 PM.
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Central Abbotsford
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
50m (164ft)
2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
- Hound
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions
Well, DP has now dropped to -1
Still +5 out though.
Still +5 out though.
North Surrey/Fraser Heights
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Elevation - 85 M./278 Ft.
- SouthSardiswx
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions
Well what made Jan. 2011 so painful remember it collapsed right at prime time for us Jan 8th. I wasn't expecting anything this early TBH, if we get anything like afew slush falls and some bordline temps. consider it an early win. Dec to mid Jan is our prime time we haven't started yet.Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 27, 2022 1:32 am Most realistic scenario. Big snowfall followed by a transition to rain. Rapidly deepening lows usually like to make landfall to our north and don't slowly sag south or hang just offshore.
Silver lining is there does not appear to be a significant warmup... may transition back to snow late Wednesday or Thursday.
Join us next season
Nukes are in round 2!!
Wrinkle Rockers: 43cm
South Sardines: 57cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
Nukes are in round 2!!
Wrinkle Rockers: 43cm
South Sardines: 57cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather