November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

It's just resolution issues. The central valley will certainly get much less. The model smoothes out the topography over the entire grid area (with the GFS this is a fairly large grid) so it treats the valley as higher elevation and doesn't capture the narrow stream of dry outflow air along the valley.

Good explanation Nords thanks so 5cm possible 10cm for Chilliwack area?

[wetcoast91]

It's just resolution issues. The central valley will certainly get much less. The model smoothes out the topography over the entire grid area (with the GFS this is a fairly large grid) so it treats the valley as higher elevation and doesn't capture the narrow stream of dry outflow air along the valley.

Dashing snow lovers dreams is what I do.

Stop stealing my bit!

[Leighbugs]

I’m expecting 50cm because The Weather Network app said so and those are always correct… aaaaand I like

The hubby is ALWAYS consulting The Weather Network app for forecast information. I swear, I have almost lost my mind every time I tell him some upcoming weather event shown clearly on the models and he says, "well, TWN says that's not gonna happen..." Ummm, sir. Have we met? I told you not to trust TWN the last time you got caught outdoors at work in a deluge because TWN said it was going to just be cloudy.

Hubby probably thinks we are getting 50 cm of snow, LOL. I won't correct him in hopes it comes true. It'll be worth him telling me, "The Weather Network says blah blah blah...."

[Typeing3]

Updated SWS issued a few hours ago:

Potential for winter weather early this week...

When: Tuesday through Wednesday morning.

Hazards: Outflow conditions with strong winds, sub-zero temperatures and cold windchill. Snow with significant accumulations transitioning to rain leading to poor travel conditions. A slight risk of freezing rain for parts of the Fraser Valley.

Remarks: Modified arctic air continues to push its way out over the south coast. Brisk outflow winds will develop, followed by falling temperatures the next couple of days.

On Tuesday, an upper level disturbance will move southwards along the BC coast, leading to a chance of flurries beginning in the afternoon.

A developing area of low pressure following this feature is forecast to reach the south coast on Tuesday night, potentially bringing significant snowfall accumulations to the area.

Overnight on Tuesday, an increasing southeasterly flow will usher in warmer air and a transition from snow to rain is likely some time before Wednesday morning. Areas further inland can expect this transition to be delayed. Parts of the Fraser Valley will have a brief risk of freezing rain Wednesday morning as incoming warm air overrides cold outflows.

[Nordelian]

Good explanation Nords thanks so 5cm possible 10cm for Chilliwack area?

Sounds like a good forecast IMHO

[wetcoast91]

Our 5 newest members: Hailestorm, jetski988, Heavy, Awoodx, Levette85

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Dashing snow lovers dreams is what I do.

Stop stealing my bit!

See what happens when you slack off on the snow skepticism?

[John]

Weatherpro MIA not a good sign this is what happened last time he was wrong lol didn’t hear from him yet today

[Leighbugs]

Our 5 newest members: Hailestorm, jetski988, Heavy, Awoodx, Levette85

Welcome! Feel free to join the conversation. Bonus points if you're on Team Snow.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Weatherpro MIA not a good sign this is what happened last time he was wrong lol didn’t hear from him yet today

Probably his day off John all is good.

[Feetz of Snow]

Welcome new members

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Welcome new members

Let’s just hope they don’t become perturbed members,

[John]

Probably his day off John all is good.

O. K.

[Typeing3]

It's hilarious how much of a snow-pocket Squamish is in. At sea level just like the freakin rest of us yet the unique geography of the Squamish Valley perpetuates (relatively) insanely high snow totals through every system. Even if the models tank - Squamish still has tons of snow forecasted and it will hit 9/10 times instead of the 50/50 we get everywhere else

You guys want snow? Squamish, BC

Yep:
https://twitter.com/Squamishweather/sta ... 5767304193

[WeatherPro]

Weatherpro MIA not a good sign this is what happened last time he was wrong lol didn’t hear from him yet today

Hello, I am here!

Not much has changed overall, still looking good for a good dump of snow tomorrow starting in the evening. My initial forecast stands with some slight modification, but really those details won't mean much. There is no fail yet, if for some reason tomorrow the models all change, then that would be a disaster for snow lovers, but that's not going to happen. Everyone needs to be ready. EC seems to be unusually cautious this time, but warnings will be come Tuesday morning. Snow at sea level, higher amounts at higher elevations and the further east you go, same as always. The quick/slight warmup on Wed might not occur except at sea level near the water, inland might stay frozen. On track for more dumping snow this week and by weeks end another heavy dump.

Dew points are really low across the region which is good to see. Let's hope the clear skies overnight produce some good lows as the clouds roll in tomorrow and lock in the cool temps near the surface.

Exciting!