December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

[Bonovox]

GFS not even worth mentioning right now.

The run to run consistency on that thing should be a national embarrassment for NOAA/NCEP.

[wetcoast91]

Warm outlier. Can't even figure out a pattern 4-5 days out.
ens_image.png

Ensemble mean =

[Bonovox]

The run to run consistency on that thing should be a national embarrassment for NOAA/NCEP.

In fact, it is now lagging behind the GEM in verification scores.

[Storm]

The run to run consistency on that thing should be a national embarrassment for NOAA/NCEP.

No kidding. https://twitter.com/wx_washington/statu ... 4Xbaw&s=19

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

The run to run consistency on that thing should be a national embarrassment for NOAA/NCEP.

How do they correct it Bones? or at least bring it back from the brink.

[Bonovox]

How do they correct it Bones? or at least bring it back from the brink.

Haha, that is far beyond my scope of understanding. I have no idea.

[Storm]

Ensemble mean =

You should know this but the whole GFS suites are garbage right.

[Bonovox]

Regardless of what the Minister of Propaganda has to say, all Ensemble suites show plentiful NPAC blocking. This pattern is primed for surprises. Again, it may or may not happen, but we have all the pieces in play. Broadly speaking.

[Storm]

For the most powerful country in the world its quite embarrassing. This is country that has $1.64 Trillion military budget.

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/wx_washington/statu ... 2Ogtg&s=19

What a waste of computing power.
https://twitter.com/wx_washington/statu ... Wm3Bg&s=19

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

For the most powerful country in the world its quite embarrassing. This is country that has $1.64 Trillion military budget.

I thought the GoFurS model led the way with the end of November's Arctic outbreak? but it was still wacky at times.

[Storm]

I thought GoFurS model led the way end of November's Arctic outbreak?

Before the upgrade or downgrade.

[AbbyJr]

Yeah, the pieces are there. The trough digs too far off the coast, but we're in the ballgame and that's not far from being a big snow producer.

We can always hope for a February 2017 outcome where the models got the specific details wrong until 4-5 days out.

No doubt the pattern shown on the 00Z GEM is very close to being an epic cold and snowy solution but it’s not quite there yet.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Before the upgrade or downgrade.

Was that before it had it been upgraded? I didn't keep track.
O.k. so it was upgraded by then.? or downgraded.

[Hound]

Oh, he played Roberst Creekers song! Shoutout to Sardineman!
Anyone else listening want a shoutout?