December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
Post Reply
User avatar
PortKells
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 7726
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:08 pm
Location: Port Kells
Elevation: 78m
Has thanked: 589 times
Been thanked: 13672 times

Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Radar wrote: Fri Dec 23, 2022 9:33 am Too much attention to the larger models with terrain bleed and less accuracy. The short term local models I find are more reliable within 12-16 hours.
You're still wrong. People here know what they're talking about. We look at Rgem, Hrrr, Nam, etc. You are no smarter than anyone else.
User avatar
Bonovox
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 6738
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:10 pm
Location: Ladner
Elevation: Sea Level
Has thanked: 4808 times
Been thanked: 15613 times

Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Radar wrote: Fri Dec 23, 2022 9:33 am Too much attention to the larger models with terrain bleed and less accuracy. The short term local models I find are more reliable within 12-16 hours.
Dude, give it a rest. The 2.5km HRDPS was showing 6-8 inches across the Lower Mainland. The 3km NAM was showing 5-10cm. There was NO model showing a transition as early as it occurred. Your schtick is tiring and your propensity to gloat is off putting.
Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

Ladner - Elevation: Sea Level

Wx Station: https://tempestwx.com/station/41362/grid
User avatar
VanCitySouth
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 3922
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:21 pm
Location: Vancouver (Langara)
Elevation: 72 m/236 ft
Has thanked: 4164 times
Been thanked: 8316 times

Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Radar wrote: Fri Dec 23, 2022 9:33 am Too much attention to the larger models with terrain bleed and less accuracy. The short term local models I find are more reliable within 12-16 hours.
Even the most aggressively warm short term models had snow going until maybe an hour or two ago, mate. They all busted.
2025-26 season stats:
Climo :cancel: ∞ to 0.5 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 0.5 cm and TWO traces!
Peak depth: 0.5 cm (01/07/2026)
User avatar
Rubus_Leucodermis
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6344
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:48 pm
Location: Vancouver
Elevation: 70 m / 230 ft
Has thanked: 4874 times
Been thanked: 12961 times

Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Temperature has risen 2°C in the past 3 hours. At this rate, should be above freezing here by this afternoon.
It's called clown range for a reason.
User avatar
VanCitySouth
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 3922
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:21 pm
Location: Vancouver (Langara)
Elevation: 72 m/236 ft
Has thanked: 4164 times
Been thanked: 8316 times

Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Fri Dec 23, 2022 9:37 am Temperature has risen 2°C in the past 3 hours. At this rate, should be above freezing here by this afternoon.
Small mercies
2025-26 season stats:
Climo :cancel: ∞ to 0.5 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 0.5 cm and TWO traces!
Peak depth: 0.5 cm (01/07/2026)
User avatar
PortKells
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 7726
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:08 pm
Location: Port Kells
Elevation: 78m
Has thanked: 589 times
Been thanked: 13672 times

Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Fri Dec 23, 2022 9:32 am And as expected....people are not listening to the warnings. Costco down the road is a zoo and there's a 3 car pile up on Cariboo. :thumbdown:
So sick of human beings. I knew when I saw it was raining people would think "oh what's the big deal??"
User avatar
VanCitySouth
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 3922
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:21 pm
Location: Vancouver (Langara)
Elevation: 72 m/236 ft
Has thanked: 4164 times
Been thanked: 8316 times

Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Bonovox wrote: Fri Dec 23, 2022 9:36 am Dude, give it a rest. The 2.5km HRDPS was showing 6-8 inches across the Lower Mainland. The 3km NAM was showing 5-10cm. There was NO model showing a transition as early as it occurred. Your schtick is tiring and your propensity to gloat is off putting.
Ain't that just the truest thing anyone's said all month.
2025-26 season stats:
Climo :cancel: ∞ to 0.5 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 0.5 cm and TWO traces!
Peak depth: 0.5 cm (01/07/2026)
User avatar
PortKells
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 7726
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:08 pm
Location: Port Kells
Elevation: 78m
Has thanked: 589 times
Been thanked: 13672 times

Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Bonovox wrote: Fri Dec 23, 2022 9:36 am Dude, give it a rest. The 2.5km HRDPS was showing 6-8 inches across the Lower Mainland. The 3km NAM was showing 5-10cm. There was NO model showing a transition as early as it occurred. Your schtick is tiring and your propensity to gloat is off putting.
It's beyond annoying. He brings nothing of value or substance. And where was he this last week when the forecast busted in favour of snow? Nowhere to be seen. Textbook trolling.
User avatar
Bonovox
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 6738
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:10 pm
Location: Ladner
Elevation: Sea Level
Has thanked: 4808 times
Been thanked: 15613 times

Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

All things considered, I’m not seeing a lot of red on Google Maps, so there’s that.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

Ladner - Elevation: Sea Level

Wx Station: https://tempestwx.com/station/41362/grid
Shar
Cloud Watcher
Cloud Watcher
Posts: 67
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:09 pm
Location: Kelowna
Elevation: 3000 ft
Has thanked: 294 times
Been thanked: 340 times

Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Shar »

It still snowing hard here, started about 8pm, outflow still going strong. Its hard to estimate how much snow has fallen with the strong wind but my guess is about 10cm, very dry powder. -12c
User avatar
Typeing3
Weather Psycho
Weather Psycho
Posts: 14198
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:02 pm
Location: Coquitlam
Elevation: 25M./80Ft.
Has thanked: 26799 times
Been thanked: 28396 times

Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

New snow/ice pellets measured at 6:30am: 10cm
New snow/ice pellets measured at 9am: 3cm
Storm total: 13cm

It's compacted a ton though. Currently seeing a mix of light-moderate ice pellets and freezing drizzle. :problem:

Currently -5.8c, dp -6.5c.
:typing: :type3:
East Coquitlam
Elevation 25M (80Ft)
#MrJanuary :geek: 8-)
User avatar
Forrest Gump
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4701
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:11 pm
Location: South Surrey/White Rock
Elevation: 377 Ft. or 115 M
Has thanked: 12906 times
Been thanked: 8688 times

Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Forrest Gump »

My street was bare yesterday, and my guess of an inch of new snow earlier probably about right as I just measured 2.5cm of the frozen concoction. Stuck my hand out and definitely rain now,not sleet.

Up to -3.7° from -7°
7th Annual Over the Hill Grumpy Old Men Winter Classic
Wrinkle Rock Fish Pulverizers 15cm
South Sardis Stinkin Sardines 3.5cm
User avatar
wetcoast91
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 7098
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:12 pm
Location: New Westminster
Elevation: 106m
Has thanked: 6962 times
Been thanked: 16338 times

Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Fri Dec 23, 2022 9:37 am Temperature has risen 2°C in the past 3 hours. At this rate, should be above freezing here by this afternoon.
The outflow for many portions of Metro Van has been cut off which is good. We just need to erode the cold air at the surface. The next impulse of moisture is bringing very mild air aloft. Should be more efficient at bringing the mild air downward to increase temps to +2C by the PM hours. Surfaces will likely be icy with minimal melt in snow covered roads until we warm up.

The Fraser Valley is screwed until the outflow shuts off. I fear the models are overdoing the subsidence of warm air.
Ovonucks
Cloud Watcher
Cloud Watcher
Posts: 69
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 9:04 pm
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 162 times

Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Ovonucks »

Bonovox wrote: Fri Dec 23, 2022 9:36 am Dude, give it a rest. The 2.5km HRDPS was showing 6-8 inches across the Lower Mainland. The 3km NAM was showing 5-10cm. There was NO model showing a transition as early as it occurred. Your schtick is tiring and your propensity to gloat is off putting.

Radar probably doesn't even know what propensity means. Well done.
User avatar
Hound
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 4824
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:11 pm
Location: Fraser Heights
Has thanked: 30786 times
Been thanked: 10436 times

Re: December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hound »

Epic Fail of the models and forecasts.
Pathetic situation as usual, warm ass air always has to ruin it for us.
All we wanted was snow so we could up our snowfall count and then move into the freezing rain garbage and then into Nito's and Raindars sexual fantasy land of AR's and warm temps. F all that! Why is it too much to ask for a decent overrunning event? So pathetic.

Anyway, my temp is -5.8
DP: -8
Hum: 87%

A mix of Snow pellets & freezing drizzle (AKA freezing post anal drip)

Looks like 4Cm of ice pellets from last night and this morning. Could be more, I'll measure later.
North Surrey/Fraser Heights
Elevation - 85 M./278 Ft.
:eatyum:
Post Reply