January 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[PortKells]

March 1951 was absolutely epic. Abbotsford recorded 102.6cm of snow in 5 days during that arctic blast. Here are the stats:

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1951

On March 5th 1951, the daytime high was -6.0C with a low of -10C. The two day snowfall for March 5th and 6th was 63.5cm and this was in March! A top tier event like that in March is unheard of around here. Would be a dream come true to see a repeat but it's highly unlikely.

The rest of lower mainland got lots of snow too. Even Vancouver (YVR) got a decent amount of snow but not nearly as much as inland areas.

Here are the stats for New Westminster and Vancouver:

New Westminster:
https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1951

Vancouver:
https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1951

Finally, here was the 500mb pattern for March 5th, 1951:


march5th1951500mb.gif


Look at that ridge bridge and polar low! Top tier pattern for sure.

Ah, the 50's.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

January weather around here may be warm, but then there is Europe.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/photos/eu ... -1.6705657

I wonder when our turn comes next.

Next El Niño. Lowland temps in the 20's C should be easily achievable given current trends.

[PortKells]

Next El Niño. Lowland temps in the 20's C should be easily achievable given current trends.

I believe that happened in Ontario 2-3 years ago. widespread mid 20's in January. It's coming

[Weather101]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... dXZqA&s=19

[stuffradio]

The latest ENSO models are showing 60% chance of El Nito to show up by meteorological Summer.

[Catnip]

FEB.png

[PortKells]

FEB.png

Wow that's a serious ridging signal. Just need it to tilt and slide over into Alaska and that's a perfect setup.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (3).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (4).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (5).png

[Typeing3]

20230112020110-70032a6eeaab8475bb8c223f01f0f976da6233b1.png

[Typeing3]

Screenshot 2023-01-11 180249.png

Screenshot 2023-01-11 180351.png

[wetcoast91]

The latest ENSO models are showing 60% chance of El Nito to show up by meteorological Summer.

[Roberts Creeker]

Still windy 8 of the 11 days of January have had wind with gusts over 30 km/h.

And now, just for fun a rainfall warning. 60 - 120 mm between now and Friday. Must be January...but at least it's warm out, a tropical, pineapple growing 11.9c, also the high temp of the day, low was 1.6c at 1 am.

[Typeing3]

Still windy 8 of the 11 days of January have had wind with gusts over 30 km/h.

And now, just for fun a rainfall warning. 60 - 120 mm between now and Friday. Must be January...but at least it's warm out, a tropical, pineapple growing 11.9c, also the high temp of the day, low was 1.6c at 1 am.

Mountain snowpack will take a bit hit unfortunately.

[AbbyJr]

I would prefer a slow transition with neutral conditions next winter. More chances for

[stuffradio]

12Z GFS is getting interesting in the clown range for a cold snap.

gfs-deterministic-namer-t2m_c-4626400.png