January 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[stuffradio]

Thinking your right Kells seems weirdly quiet around these parts with all this cold model noise happening.
Either folks were done after the ending debacle to the pre Christmas event or have moved on till next winter..

I'm just waiting to see what the Gophers have to say

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Waiting for the cold to get closer I guess. Dry to start doesn't excite to many either. The 18Z does not excite in that regard. Hopefully the cold will be around long enough to go skating on the fen.

Mmmm, donuts!

[PortKells]

Waiting for the cold to get closer I guess. Dry to start doesn't excite to many either. The 18Z does not excite in that regard. Hopefully the cold will be around long enough to go skating on the fen.

By now we can be sure that the GFS is a completely irrelevant forecasting tool. It is a weather model in the same way I am fashion model. As in, the complete opposite. It's been more accurate to bet against it than for it.

On November 29 there had been about 20 GFS runs in a row showing 30+ cm region wide. Fail.
For December 18-22 it barely came on board for any arctic air at all. Fail.
I've also used it in past years for picking powder days through snowforecast.com...many many fails.

Frankly if it wasn't the American model it would be laughed out of the forum or treated like the obscure ones(Japanese, Korean) and not something that is used in the same breath as the euro or even the Canadian.

All this to say..if the GFS is out, count me in.

[Canada Goose]

Capture d’écran 2023-01-23 à 17.44.56.jpg

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I'm just waiting to see what the Gophers have to say

You mean the Goofers Stuffed pie.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I bumped into a friend who lives beside the person who operates the Vavenby station. He married into that family so I told him he needs to tear a strip of her. To say something like, "You think you're a Christian who doesn't believe in lying?? Why the F are you lying about how hot it was in December?? I will never talk to you again!"

My friend said that I take the weather a little seriously and should just let it slide.

heat.png

EDIT: BTW, today has warmed MORE than any other day of the year over the past 100 years. The nights have warmed almost 10 degrees in Prince George!!

Prince George.png

Ran into a chum with a bottle of rum and we wound up drinking all night.

[Typeing3]

Eastern ice box on the long range 18z.

gfs_T850_eus_fh216-312.gif

Surface temps ( daily lows)

gfs_T2m_eus_fh210-306.gif

[PortKells]

Eastern ice box on the long range 18z.
gfs_T850_eus_fh216-312.gif



Surface temps ( daily lows)
gfs_T2m_eus_fh210-306.gif

It's all over the map. If they're putting their hopes in the GFS clown range they'll be disappointed.

[moonshadow0825]

Is anyone else getting logged out if they move away from the forum? started today, site is just showing phpBB logo and indicates it is not the https site and I get logged out every time
trying to figure out if this is a moonshadow issue or a site issue

[walthz]

Is anyone else getting logged out if they move away from the forum? started today, site is just showing phpBB logo and indicates it is not the https site and I get logged out every time
trying to figure out if this is a moonshadow issue or a site issue

Be super careful there's a forums.bcstorms site that looks almost identical and it's a hijacking site that someone set up☠

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Be super careful there's a forums.bcstorms site that looks almost identical and it's a hijacking site that someone set up☠

Disgruntled former forum employee Walt? or rain lover.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Be super careful there's a forums.bcstorms site that looks almost identical and it's a hijacking site that someone set up☠

Actually l thought Stuffy boss mentioned there was a PBP domain but don't use it or something l'm not sure.

[moonshadow0825]

Be super careful there's a forums.bcstorms site that looks almost identical and it's a hijacking site that someone set up☠

Thanks for the warning!

I have the site in my bookmarks bar, log in through that link each time. it's only since this morning that it won't log me in automatically, instead logs me out automatically , nor will it autofill my username and password although Google has it stored and loads it when prompted.
not happening with any of my other regular spots where I need to log in.

it's a mystery!

[AbbyJr]

By now we can be sure that the GFS is a completely irrelevant forecasting tool. It is a weather model in the same way I am fashion model. As in, the complete opposite. It's been more accurate to bet against it than for it.

On November 29 there had been about 20 GFS runs in a row showing 30+ cm region wide. Fail.
For December 18-22 it barely came on board for any arctic air at all. Fail.
I've also used it in past years for picking powder days through snowforecast.com...many many fails.

Frankly if it wasn't the American model it would be laughed out of the forum or treated like the obscure ones(Japanese, Korean) and not something that is used in the same breath as the euro or even the Canadian.

All this to say..if the GFS is out, count me in.

Good analysis.

The main models I consider when forecasting are the ECMWF, GEM, RGEM, and HRDPS. In the longer range, I rely upon the EPS and CMC ensembles.

Of course I'll look at the GFS and GEFS, but I don't take many of its solutions seriously given how poorly the model suite performs. Unless I specifically state otherwise, assume any GFS and GEFS runs I post are for entertainment purposes only.

[Typeing3]

Is anyone else getting logged out if they move away from the forum? started today, site is just showing phpBB logo and indicates it is not the https site and I get logged out every time
trying to figure out if this is a moonshadow issue or a site issue

Same issues here.

What is the correct link?