February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[PortKells]

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_snow-6980800.png

[Typeing3]

22.2 over Pitt Meadows.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-7445200.png

Fixed!

[Typeing3]

Looks like the arctic front reached Kamloops around 9am.

[PortKells]

Fixed!

Close enough. Also my place outperforms that area 98% of the time.

[Hawk]

Close enough. Also my place outperforms that area 98% of the time.

I'm up the hill in Willoughby..similar to your totals, but slighty higher totals sometimes due to elevation?

[PortKells]

I'm up the hill in Willoughby..similar to your totals, but slighty higher totals sometimes due to elevation?

Maybe. I've come to believe I'm in one of the top performing spots for sea level in the entire region. For example on Dec 18 I got 15 cm while areas all around me like Willoughby and Cloverdale got significantly less. My property is actually right on the hill and I think there some convergence with Fraser outflow meeting boundary bay onshore flow.

[Typeing3]

Arctic front seems to be roughly between Lillooet-Lytton-Merritt-Vernon. It's coming!

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I'm not seeing that. 12Z HRDPS has a line of rain showers/snow move through this evening around 0500pm and is then dry over the Lower Mainland.

That would be enough for the dark blue (lightest amounts) on the map I posted.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Is that where Jesse lives? He'll be slightly less angry about life, I guess.

Did someone say Jesse?

Screenshot from 2023-02-21 14-09-06.png

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (11).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (12).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (13).png

[Typeing3]

20230221221041-d20fe06fde21f3b7927641a15b71e9742f9c59fe.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Latest Goofus not only shows leading snow for us, but now shows metro Vancouver getting more of it than metro Seattle (amounts are still light, though).

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-7186000.png.f731c3df45ae13b82ed49bedfd33cbf6.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (11).png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (12).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (13).png

All three of which show moisture in the next 36 hours when 850 mbar temps are -7°C or less.

There will not be a lot of leading snow with this one, but there will be some.

[Typeing3]

Arctic front seems to be roughly between Lillooet-Lytton-Merritt-Vernon. It's coming!

Scratch that. Was looking at obs from a couple hrs ago. Seems to be further south than that already.

Roughly between Port Hardy, Whistler, Lytton, Princeton, Penticton, and Castlegar.

[Hawk]

Maybe. I've come to believe I'm in one of the top performing spots for sea level in the entire region. For example on Dec 18 I got 15 cm while areas all around me like Willoughby and Cloverdale got significantly less. My property is actually right on the hill and I think there some convergence with Fraser outflow meeting boundary bay onshore flow.

You're at sea level? Hmm. Not sure Boundary Bay would help you out would it? You would be on the downslope side of the Langley (Willoughby) Hill. Which peaks out at ~330 feet. I'm sure the Boundary Bay helps my area though. I have watched moisture cells ride up the slope N or NE and dump on Willoughby a few times.
I thought you would be sitting on a slope with some elevation at least. Maybe your area is kind of like an extension of the Guildford area, which i have seen get pumbled many times in marginal snow events.
Anyways, nice score!
And ya, Pitt Meadows is the worst

Edit: You are at 78m. I thought you meant way low down at sea level. That would explain it better now