September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Re: September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

stuffradio wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 8:17 am Some of the weather forecasts I have seen lately seem to be relatively "Goldilocks" like. Temperatures not too hot with some relatively cool temperatures sometimes.
The best type of weather
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Re: September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Glacier »

Nordelian wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 8:36 pm The fact that Toronto has hit 40 humidex over 15 times in Septembers in the past decade doesn't feel that atypical. Basically every other year..
I suppose it depends on how you define "atypical" and "normal." Toronto is already at 40 on the humidex as of noon today! So now up to 10 hours of 40 this month, the 2nd most all time.

And notice from my graph that between 1986 and 2006 there wasn't a single hour of 40 in September. Wouldn't it be fair to say that if you can go 21 years without something happening even once that this thing is atypical? Or maybe the lull in the 1990s was atypical. Or maybe both.

I'd call it fairly rare, but certainly it's not normal to have 10 hours and counting of 40 in September. It has only ever happened once before, and that was 65 years ago. Only 15 of the past 69 years have recorded 40C humidex in September. 8 in the first half and 7 in the 2nd half.
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Re: September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

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:think:
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Re: September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

Nordelian wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 8:36 pm The fact that Toronto has hit 40 humidex over 15 times in Septembers in the past decade doesn't feel that atypical. Basically every other year..
It is not normal whatsoever
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Re: September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

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Glacier wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:06 am I suppose it depends on how you define "atypical" and "normal." Toronto is already at 40 on the humidex as of noon today! So now up to 10 hours of 40 this month, the 2nd most all time.

And notice from my graph that between 1986 and 2006 there wasn't a single hour of 40 in September. Wouldn't it be fair to say that if you can go 21 years without something happening even once that this thing is atypical? Or maybe the lull in the 1990s was atypical. Or maybe both.

I'd call it fairly rare, but certainly it's not normal to have 10 hours and counting of 40 in September. It has only ever happened once before, and that was 65 years ago. Only 15 of the past 69 years have recorded 40C humidex in September. 8 in the first half and 7 in the 2nd half.

tohumdixedsdfasdf.png
Dude, amazing break down! I was actually looking for stats on this! Coming through as always with the numbers :thumbup:
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Re: September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Weather101 wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:10 am:think:
Strong Aleutian low on that map. Warm and wet for us!!
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Re: September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

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Typeing3 wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 12:52 pm Strong Aleutian low on that map. Warm and wet for us!!
El Nino!!!

Also, you may be able to answer this, What does El Ninos usually mean for back east? Like Toronto.

This will be my first winter going back and forth due to work, so I was just wondering 🤔
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Re: September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

This is cool
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Re: September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Slimshadyinsardis »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2023 7:48 am And to put a cherry on top, many add antisemitism to their conspiracy theories. Which sort of makes sense, given how antisemitism is conspiracy-theory based.

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:wtf: :lol: Well this topic went sideways.
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Re: September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Slimshadyinsardis »

Weather101 wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:12 am Dude, amazing break down! I was actually looking for stats on this! Coming through as always with the numbers :thumbup:
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Re: September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

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:think:
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Re: September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Slimshadyinsardis »

Weather101 wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 5:26 pm:think:
Oh c’mon :roll: just a reason to grab federal disaster money crooks.
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Re: September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Slimshadyinsardis »

Weather101 wrote: Mon Sep 04, 2023 10:02 pm Directed engery weapon? That's what I'm seeing. I don't know much about this topic, admittedly.
I always thought of D.E.W. in the Arctic distant early warning to do with the Cold War era and nukes. :dunno:
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Re: September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Weather101 wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 1:03 pm El Nino!!!

Also, you may be able to answer this, What does El Ninos usually mean for back east? Like Toronto.

This will be my first winter going back and forth due to work, so I was just wondering 🤔
Typically also leans warmer than average for much of the country including Toronto.

Cooler and wetter than average further east (Atlantic provinces) and to the south (New England, Mid-Atlantic and the SE US).
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Re: September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Slimshadyinsardis »

Typeing3 wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:12 pm Typically also leans warmer than average for much of the country including Toronto.

Cooler and wetter than average further east (Atlantic provinces) and to the south (New England, Mid-Atlantic and the SE US).
Or perhaps a 68/69 winter on the west coast one can dream big Tcold :D
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