December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

I would rather hit +15C instead of +9C.

How about +28C with 95% humidity on Christmas day.

[Typeing3]

Just curious why you are so convinced we won't see a cold January? Not saying we will, but the curse has got to end at some point.

Oh, it's certainly possible... just highly unlikely.

Sound like a broken record at this point but our last one was way back in 1993.

I'll have to look over the historical data on this one, but we'd probably have to go even further back for this. When was our last cold January during an El Nino?

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I'm just in awe of this year's addiction of the Kanuckle juggernauts wow! nice thing they don't have to rush Sous the moose🫎 back.
We reached a high of 10c @ the official pond of Christmas in south Sardis with 1.5mm in the pond today.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Oh, it's certainly possible... just highly unlikely.

Sound like a broken record at this point but our last one was way back in 1993.

I'll have to look over the historical data on this one, but we'd probably have to go even further back for this. When was our last cold January during an El Nino?

Jan 18th/98 Thistory, l remember the NHL all star game was held at the then called GM Place remember they called it the garage, didn't we recieve some snow that week after an Arctic blast, that was an El Neeto year.

[arbetrader]

Our eldest of three kids just turned seven. Every year we’re in Kelowna between Christmas and New Year at my folks’ place. The kids haven’t experienced a snowless holiday season there. I explained there won’t be snow there, but it didn’t compute. I booked a sleigh ride on Boxing Day at Big White. Even if it’s slop in the alpine at the coast, Big White does okay retaining its snowpack during these types of winters. Best we can do is wish-casting on those long-range ensembles.

Hey Matt, Rob here - our family just came back from a Silverstar ski holiday (we skied Friday/Saturday); while it was a bit thinner than previous years, it actually wasn't too bad. Kids had a blast. I think you'll be okay, and you're right - the interior mountains seem to do alright with maintaining at least enough to have a semi reasonable season

Hope you enjoy your annual family trip to Kelowna - Drive safe!

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

How about +28C with 95% humidity on Christmas day.

Routine in Brisbane!

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Monty knew.

Monty & our Jr. Man Wpro 2.0 latched onto the possibility.

[AbbyJr]

Oh, it's certainly possible... just highly unlikely.

Sound like a broken record at this point but our last one was way back in 1993.

I'll have to look over the historical data on this one, but we'd probably have to go even further back for this. When was our last cold January during an El Nino?

Depends on one's definition of a cold month. But the last cold January during an El Niño I remember was 1969. Now there could be a more recent analog, but that's the famous one. That said, even a week of top tier cold with one or two mid-top tier snowstorms in January would meet my criteria for a cold month. While it may not be considered cold based on the monthly average, I'm personally more interested in the memorable events than the average temperature stats. But each to their own.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Desmith outstanding pick up and Nikita is blowing Za doors off opponents. it's overcast but no rain yet @ my work in Abbs down near Sumas.

[AbbyJr]

Depends on one's definition of a cold month. But the last cold January during an El Niño I remember was 1969. Now there could be a more recent analog, but that's the famous one. That said, even a week of top tier cold with one or two mid-top tier snowstorms in January would meet my criteria for a cold month. While it may not be considered cold based on the monthly average, I'm personally more interested in the memorable events than the average temperature stats. But each to their own.

I'm sorry for the duplicate posts. I tried to submit this post a few times but the page wouldn't load. When it finally loaded, it I noticed that my post was posted multiple times. Can one of the moderators please remove the duplicates? Thanks in advance.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

You can delete your own double posts off Jr.Man look for the post that has an x in the upper right hand corner. Hit the x it will then ask if you want to delete post.
Example post see the x.

Screenshot_20231219_232720_Chrome.jpg

[Typeing3]

Depends on one's definition of a cold month. But the last cold January during an El Niño I remember was 1969. Now there could be a more recent analog, but that's the famous one. That said, even a week of top tier cold with one or two mid-top tier snowstorms in January would meet my criteria for a cold month. While it may not be considered cold based on the monthly average, I'm personally more interested in the memorable events than the average temperature stats. But each to their own.

Can be hard to quantify individual events unfortunately. Month to month comparisons are simpler as there's less ambiguity when comparing an "event" with another "event" (ex. When did the event begin and end). Not diminishing it though as I do frequently reference individual events but in this this case, I'm referring to January as a whole, which has unfortunately been a crapfest since 1993 even though we have seen some decent events during short periods of the month since then.

Over the course of the historical record, the hallmark of a legitimately cold month in Vancouver is an average temperature below freezing. Perhaps that standard has risen in recent decades, to coincide with the overall warmer shift in the climate -- even if we raise that criteria to a monthly mean temp of 1c or below, the last cold January around these parts remains the same... 1993.

[Bonovox]

I'm sorry for the duplicate posts. I tried to submit this post a few times but the page wouldn't load. When it finally loaded, it I noticed that my post was posted multiple times. Can one of the moderators please remove the duplicates? Thanks in advance.

No worries, Jr man. Deleted the duplicate posts.

[stuffradio]

ENSO neutral conditions by Spring/Summer followed by La Nina next Fall.

enso_forecast.png

[AbbyJr]

You can delete your own double posts off Jr.Man look for the post that has an x in the upper right hand corner. Hit the x it will then ask if you want to delete post.
Example post see the x.Screenshot_20231219_232720_Chrome.jpg

Yes but only if you catch it soon enough. By the time I noticed it, the X was gone. I think you have to delete it before it’s seen otherwise it can only be deleted by a moderator or administrator.