January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

Given the ENSO state...we all know it will be hard to achieve a multi-week period of snow and cold. I think many would take that 2020 outcome given it included a flash freeze with blizzard conditions, multiple snowstorms and some bitterly cold powdery snows.

It was a neutral ENSO, which can work out really well for the PNW. I think the issue in 2020 was the strong PV. We were lucky to get a few days of cold that winter. Unfortunately, Abbotsford missed out on much of the snow. But there were still blizzard conditions at times. So yes, I agree that despite the crazy clown GFS runs not verifying, it was still a win for the region.

[Catnip]

I’m just happy the Oil put the boots to the Flyers. As for this January, is the bandwagon now un-cancel winter? Perhaps the 00z EPS followed by a “devastating” 06z GFS op will put us back on the cancel bandwagon.

Some of us will ride this wagon till the wheels fall off!

[Catnip]

I mean, the GFS is not off on it's own this time. It has decent ensemble support.

Not to say this won't change, but nice to see.

Those -15/-20 runs are skewing things a bit though.


*they are still running

gfs-vancouver-ca-49n-123(2).jpeg

[Bonovox]

00z GEM looks pretty good too between days 7-9.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I’ll never forget the January 2020 GFS model ride. Kept showing a 1950 and 1969 style arctic blast. The end result was cold with some snow but nothing even close to what the GFS advertised run to run multiple days in a row.

Something similar has happened most recent winters. The GFS in its more recent incarnations way overplays cold air advection from the east.

At least it is consistent with a cold spell of a lesser sort actually materializing.

[Catnip]

00z

222 0z.png

18z

228 18z.png

[Bonovox]

00z GEM

Monday morning.

[Catnip]

00z GEM

Monday morning.

C'Mon Euro! Join the party!

[AbbyJr]

Something similar has happened most recent winters. The GFS in its more recent incarnations way overplays cold air advection from the east.

At least it is consistent with a cold spell of a lesser sort actually materializing.

Yes the GFS was the first model to spot and insist on the January 2020 mid month arctic blast. It just way overhyped the details.

[PortKells]

Welcome Aboard!

We almost left without you!

As always, I'm on team #hilariousgifs above all else.

[Storm]

Johnny should start the house reinforcement in advance. 150 cm of snow on the way.

[Bonovox]

00z pretty decent improvement on the GEPS too.

[PortKells]

00z GEM

Monday morning.

#Problematic commute eest of the Port Mann?

[Bonovox]

#Problematic commute eest of the Port Mann?

I’ve already started salting my driveway.

[Bonovox]

00z ICON looks good too.