January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

OK.... So now I can start calling and texting all my friends that it's actually winter cancel?
It's a good thing I don't have many friends or maybe that's why

I haven’t told any of my friends anything yet, except to be skeptical of any snowflakes on smartphone apps, since forecasting that far out has lousy accuracy.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

This is the reason why hype has died down.

Both ensemble mean and operational on both Euro and GFS have 850’s of -10˚C or colder with some moisture in the area, yet many are acting as if it is a total bust.

[Storm]

Both ensemble mean and operational on both Euro and GFS have 850’s of -10˚C or colder with some moisture in the area, yet many are acting as if it is a total bust.

Totally

[Storm]

Like the 00z last night.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_21.png

[wetcoast91]

Too much head banging on this forum. It's going to get cold, how cold remains to be seen.

Looks like quite the snowstorm next Tuesday on the 12Z GFS.

[wetcoast91]

Going further East each run...Looks like the ridge may be pushed over us by end of next week.



Up to the GEM. Euro and GFS suggest a cool few days with one marginal snowfall.

[Catnip]

Going further East each run...Looks like the ridge may be pushed over us by end of next week.


Up to the GEM. Euro and GFS suggest a cool few days with one marginal snowfall.

GEM!

[Storm]

GEM!

WTF is going on here. GEM hasn't budged.

For those who might know, are those models crunch same data or individual models have there own data. This is what happened last year as well GFS fell of a cliff for 5-6 runs, Euro followed then they came back to more favorable solution.

[wetcoast91]

GEM!

Andrew says we are screwed. Pack it in.

Time to put out your patio furniture and clean your pools. Summer is right around the corner...

[Catnip]

WTF is going on here. GEM hasn't budged

Still some things to figure out.

Hopefully we can score a snowfall or two and a period of some below normal (not historical/biblical/top tier etc.) temps.

[Catnip]

Andrew says we are screwed. Pack it in.

Time to put out your patio furniture and clean your pools. Summer is right around the corner...

Maybe the CFS will save him.

[Catnip]

Lots of cold members on the 6z ensembles. Still lots to figure out.

Appears that more like the idea of keeping the ridge off shore.

Nothing set in stone either way.

A540A692-A7E3-42D3-8606-A90F6C6D8B43.jpeg

[AbbyJr]

WTF is going on here. GEM hasn't budged.

For those who might know, are those models crunch same data or individual models have there own data. This is what happened last year as well GFS fell of a cliff for 5-6 runs, Euro followed then they came back to more favorable solution.

Good point. I was actually going to mention that too. The GFS is known for taking step backs after initially leading the way and then jumping back on board at the end. As you mentioned, last winter the Euro collapsed with the GFS but got back up much sooner than the GFS did. Regardless, if the Euro and GEM solution is significantly different from the GFS, I'll always disregard the GFS as an outlier.

[Catnip]

I feel like the Euro may split the difference here.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Looks like quite the snowstorm next Tuesday on the 12Z GFS.

Phantom snow at sea level. Would be good for the mountains, though.