January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

The GEM is clearly having problems with precipitation type. Shows snow and freezing rain at the same time.


Screenshot 2024-01-14 at 8.46.21 AM.png

Which would probably verify as a mix of snow and ice pellets.

[Radar]

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We all know the macro scale maps are not good at all though for snow totals. The GEM is the worst for terrain bleed.

The NAM and HRDPS have been more accurate.

[PortKells]

Canadian ensemble gives us a slight boost. We'll take anything right now I guess.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_dprog-5525200.png

[AbbyJr]

Screenshot 2024-01-14 at 9.00.04 AM.png

[Monty]

The GEM is clearly having problems with precipitation type. Shows snow and freezing rain at the same time.


Screenshot 2024-01-14 at 8.46.21 AM.png

You can see things switch back and forth between snow and freezing rain when the warm layer aloft is near freezing. Heavier precip can wet bulb that layer back to freezing temporarily, so you end up with lighter precip falling as freezing rain and the heavier precip falls as snow.

[Monty]

Canadian ensemble gives us a slight boost. We'll take anything right now I guess.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_dprog-5525200.png

We want to see improvements with the depth of the trough around 72hrs. That shows a bigger cool down behind the system, which could set us up for a second overrunning snowfall. But it’s that first system that is our shot at something memorable

[Catnip]

Overnight low of -11.3c

[AbbyJr]

We want to see improvements with the depth of the trough around 72hrs. That shows a bigger cool down behind the system, which could set us up for a second overrunning snowfall. But it’s that first system that is our shot at something memorable

Unfortunately, it's unlikely to see much change within 72hrs.

[Storm]

Unfortunately, it's unlikely to see much change within 72hrs.

You can and will. In terms of low track, landfall, that's is the key. Small change makes big difference.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Based on this morning's low of -10.8ËšC, and an anticipated high of 0ËšC this afternoon, this will be a Cat 4 cold snap (Classic Arctic Blast) IMBY.

Correction: high-end Cat 3 to low-end Cat 4.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

You can and will. In terms of low track, landfall, that's is the key. Small change makes big difference.

At this stage, the models are still flip-flopping around. If they had converged overnight and were now basically saying the same thing (from model to model and run to run) I would feel more comfortable about calling it now. As it is, I am going to wait another day.

[Storm]

At this stage, the models are still flip-flopping around. If they had converged overnight and were now basically saying the same thing (from model to model and run to run) I would feel more comfortable about calling it now. As it is, I am going to wait another day.

Tomorrow afternoon runs. We will have better idea for better or worse. WeatherPro is coming tomorrow night.

[Pumpkin Seed]

I really enjoy reading all these posts since early this morning regarding the up coming event. Pure weather talk rather than politics or else. Thanks guys.

[Storm]

Let see what his majesty will do.The King

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[Weather101]

We all overdue for a ice storm tbh.. we have been lucky in the past years...

Hopefully we don't see that