January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hawk]

12z gfs just loading..but bringing in the Low from the SW looking to head towards the South sound

[Hawk]

Update. GFS also bobbles the Low, but is 100% SNOW YESSSS

[AbbyJr]

rgem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5528800.png

gem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5546800.png

icon-all-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-5543200.png

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5579200.png

[Hawk]

The Low is struggling to make landfall and bobbles around before ducking south inland..too much cold dense lingering air around saying get lost Low..into the USA..tell em Nito!!

[wetcoast91]

With the colder trends...freezing rain is looking very likely both Thursday and Friday.

10-20mm on top of snow in some Valley areas

[stuffradio]

It would be awesome if we could get anywhere near 30+cm of snow. Imagine having 3 or 4 years in a row with awesome winters AND next winter is becoming a La Nina as well.

[PortKells]

rgem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5528800.png

icon-all-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-5543200.png

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5579200.png

The icon is several runs in a row. I think it’s happening.

[PortKells]

With the colder trends...freezing rain is looking very likely both Thursday and Friday.

10-20mm on top of snow in some Valley areas

So you’re saying a 2 day school week? Oh no..

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

GFS and GEM say a big snow is on its way.

Euro and NAM 3km say not so much (maybe 5cm of glop in favoured areas).

NAM 3km has a big ice storm for the Valley and Whatcom County, which is concerning because as a mesoscale model it is the one likely to better pick up on the sort of minor Fraser outflow (which it is calling for) that could create such a scenario.

If the HRDPS concurs (still not inside its window yet) it will be time to worry about an ice storm.

[AbbyJr]

The icon is several runs in a row. I think it’s happening.

Agreed. We are in a good position for at least 20cm of snow. Could be more with small adjustments but significant snowfall is likely.

[PortKells]

From the sky train

BC763DCE-8C43-4ADD-A1B9-39D8396DC910.jpeg

4FAF0EC6-2412-4779-8C45-FADB4440A5D4.jpeg

[VanCitySouth]

GFS and GEM say a big snow is on its way.

Euro and NAM 3km say not so much (maybe 5cm of glop in favoured areas).

NAM 3km has a big ice storm for the Valley and Whatcom County, which is concerning because as a mesoscale model it is the one likely to better pick up on the sort of minor Fraser outflow (which it is calling for) that could create such a scenario.

If the HRDPS concurs (still not inside its window yet) it will be time to worry about an ice storm.

I thought Euro's been good for several runs now, and only NAM was in favour of less snow.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I thought Euro's been good for several runs now, and only NAM was in favour of less snow.

Once you discount the “snow” the Euro shows falling with 925 mbar temps above freezing, there isn’t much left at the surface. Maybe a slushy cm or two.

[VanCitySouth]

Once you discount the “snow” the Euro shows falling with 925 mbar temps above freezing, there isn’t much left at the surface. Maybe a slushy cm or two.

Ah. Well. Euro runs have been slightly underestimating the cold air mass, so maybe we're still fine.

[AbbyJr]

Ah. Well. Euro runs have been slightly underestimating the cold air mass, so maybe we're still fine.

I'm not sure why but yesterday both the 06Z and 18Z Euro took steps back. But both the 12Z and 00Z were snowy. We will see if that trend continues.