January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

Looks like today could be the end of the road for some of the local ski hills.

They are all closed today due to the rain and conditions.

Looking ahead it doesn't look like there will be a lot of moisture once the cooler temps settle in.

It appears that snowfall may depend on how much snow they can make when it's cool enough. At least for the time being.

[Coquitlam79]

Other dire winters for the mountains in some quotes from this article:
Here's how Grouse Mountain brought snow-making to B.C.
https://www.nsnews.com/living/heres-how ... bc-3112468






We know more recent winters like '09-10 and '14-15 were also crapfests for the mointains. At this point it looks like this one might be right up there with those and '69-70 and '76-77.

Other bad ones for the local hills were 91-92 (strong El Nino), 95-96 and 02-03 (both weird winters of either extended dry spells of big cold ridges then in between was warm ARs). I don't think anything could be worse than 14-15, though.

[Coquitlam79]

This AR is fizzling out over the Olympics. Lots of rain to our south though.

[John]

Yeah, I was worried we we were screwing up the globe. Now I can get back to idling my Toyota Tundra in the driveway and pointlessly drive around the place.

Really tundra?

[AbbyJr]

While the cold a few weeks ago was top tier, the outflow was still run of the mill compared to December 1990. Looking at the pressure pattern, you can see why Abbotsford recorded damaging outflow winds with the arctic front. Low moved into Washington state as a strong ridge of high pressure pushed into the BC interior. This created very intense outflow gradients. Wind gusts at YXX peaked at 115 km/h with rapidly dropping temperatures.

December 1990 was the last time Abbotsford recorded an outflow wind gust at or above 100 km/h with a classic arctic front. Just sad.

xx_reanalyse-en-196-0_modera5_199012190900_5618_149.png

[John]

While the cold a few weeks ago was top tier, the outflow was still run of the mill compared to December 1990. Looking at the pressure pattern, you can see why Abbotsford recorded damaging outflow winds with the arctic front. Low moved into Washington state as a strong ridge of high pressure pushed into the BC interior. This created very intense outflow gradients. Wind gusts at YXX peaked at 115 km/h with rapidly dropping temperatures.

December 1990 was the last time Abbotsford recorded an outflow wind gust at or above 100 km/h with a classic arctic front. Just sad.


xx_reanalyse-en-196-0_modera5_199012190900_5618_149.png

Is ok we don’t need to repeat that!

[AbbyJr]

Is ok we don’t need to repeat that!

Personal opinion but I love windstorms, especially when they are associated with a classic arctic front.

[SouthSardiswx]

Really tundra?

Whats wrong with Toyota John?

[Hound]

Hey BONO!!

s-l1600.jpg

https://www.ebay.ca/itm/314985562430

[Hound]

Wow... sad!

2024-01-31_141417.jpg

2024-01-31_141537.jpg

image-1119-1706739204598.jpg

Even the interior is torched:

brewers.jpg

[Glacier]

65.9°C in Keg Creek, AB.

Canadian all-time record is 70.2°C in Snag in Feb. 1947.

By the way, 21.1°C in Maple Creek today.
https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/stat ... rY4Qw&s=19

Just for fun I looked at January 1911 when Alberta dropped below -60... Highest extremes that month...

FORT VERMILION didn't even get close to the freezing mark, but probably a record for BC prior to this month...

PEACE RIVER CROSSING, AB = 62.3 (-56.7 to 5.6)
FORT ST JOHN, BC = 58.3 (-53.9 to 4.4)
PAKAN, AB = 57.2 (-52.2 to 5)
ATHABASCA LANDING, AB = 57.2 (-54.4 to 2.8)
ECKVILLE, AB = 53.9 (-46.7 to 7.2)
ALIX, AB = 53.9 (-48.3 to 5.6)
SION, AB = 53.4 (-45.6 to 7.8)
DIDSBURY, AB = 53.4 (-45.6 to 7.8)
BIG CREEK, BC = 52.8 (-45.6 to 7.2)
HARMATTAN, AB = 52.7 (-44.4 to 8.3)
WHITEHORSE, YT = 52.3 (-50.6 to 1.7)
EDMONTON, AB = 52.3 (-46.7 to 5.6)
LLOYDMINSTER, SK = 52.2 (-50 to 2.2)
FORT MACLEOD, AB = 52.2 (-42.8 to 9.4)
PRINCE, SK = 51.7 (-51.7 to 0)
FORT ST JAMES, BC = 51.6 (-47.2 to 4.4)
DAYSLAND, AB = 51.6 (-47.2 to 4.4)
FORT VERMILION CDA, AB = 50.9 (-60.3 to -9.4)
LETHBRIDGE CDA, AB = 50.1 (-42.9 to 7.2)
RANFURLY, AB = 50 (-49.4 to 0.6)
WETASKIWIN, AB = 50 (-45.6 to 4.4)
HILLSDOWN, AB = 50 (-43.9 to 6.1)
CALGARY INT'L A, AB = 50 (-42.2 to 7.8)
BATTLEFORD, SK = 50 (-48.3 to 1.7)
HIGH RIVER, AB = 48.9 (-41.7 to 7.2)
LACOMBE CDA, AB = 48.8 (-44.4 to 4.4)
QUESNEL, BC = 48.3 (-41.1 to 7.2)
DUNVEGAN, AB = 47.7 (-54.4 to -6.7)
LETHBRIDGE, AB = 47.2 (-39.4 to 7.8)
FORT VERMILION, AB = 46.7 (-60.6 to -13.9)

EDIT: I TAKE THAT BACK!

I just looked at Jan 1943....

FT MCMURRAY, AB = 62.2 (-50 to 12.2)
SPRINGDALE, AB = 61.7 (-50.6 to 11.1)
HUGHENDEN, AB = 61.2 (-45.6 to 15.6)
ENTRANCE, AB = 61.1 (-46.1 to 15)
EDSON, AB = 61.1 (-48.3 to 12.8)
CAMPSIE, AB = 60.6 (-47.8 to 12.8)
MAYO A, YT = 60 (-53.3 to 6.7)
LACOMBE CDA, AB = 60 (-47.8 to 12.2)
WATSON LAKE A, YT = 59.5 (-51.7 to 7.8)
IRON RIVER, AB = 59.5 (-51.2 to 8.3)
BIG CREEK, BC = 59.4 (-47.2 to 12.2)
ST WALBURG, SK = 59.4 (-53.3 to 6.1)
HUDSON HOPE, BC = 58.9 (-46.1 to 12.8)
THORSBY, AB = 58.9 (-47.2 to 11.7)
FORT VERMILION CDA, AB = 58.9 (-50 to 8.9)
PROGRESS, BC = 58.3 (-46.1 to 12.2)
CALMAR, AB = 58.3 (-48.3 to 10)
HILLSDOWN, AB = 58.3 (-44.4 to 13.9)
KINUSO RS, AB = 58.3 (-44.4 to 13.9)
ROCKY MOUNTAIN HOUSE, AB = 57.8 (-46.7 to 11.1)

EDIT2: I looked at Fort Nelson... Record is 62.2 degree swing. Feb 1968 the temperature went from -47.2 to 15...

[Bear Golden]

Wow... sad!

2024-01-31_141417.jpg

2024-01-31_141537.jpg

image-1119-1706739204598.jpg


Even the interior is torched:


brewers.jpg

Bummer...going up to Big White this weekend. Forecast calling for return to the mean with some snow so hoping that verifies - YEESH!

[Bonovox]

Hey BONO!!


https://www.ebay.ca/itm/314985562430

That’s pretty cool.

[SouthSardiswx]

You want cold it's all bottled up in Alaska! -50c in Fairbanks to -30's in SW Alaska lots of snow in Anchorage as well that's were winter's hanging out this year.